538
D. M. Gouda
field crops water requirements. Therefore, the impact of climate change on water is
a serious concern for Egypt [40]; however, it is not within the focus of this chapter.
Studies predict that agricultural activity in the Nile Delta could be substantially
affected by SLR through inundation and salinization [47, 50, 51]. The Potential
impact of climate change on the Egyptian economy report [7] used the IPCC’s (B1)
and (A1F1) scenarios for the determination of the impact of SLR on the agricultural
land in the Nile Delta regions in 2030. The impact on governorates is grouped by
region into Northeast, North middle, and West Delta region. The middle impact
scenario (B1) would affect the Northeast and North middle Delta regions and would
have the same impact on agricultural land in both cases, protected or unprotected.
In the Northeast Delta, the agricultural land loss would be 0.0% (620 feddan), while
in the North Middle Delta 0.2% (1860 feddan) would be lost. The agricultural land
in the West Delta would not be affected—though the land elevation would be below
the sea level in 2025—because of the Mohamed Ali Wall [52].
The high impact scenario (A1F1) in case of protection would cause a loss of
0.7% (2700 feddan) of the agricultural land in the Northeast Delta and 0.2% (3200
feddan) of the North middle Delta. In contrast, the unprotected case would affect
the agricultural land by a loss of 25.7% (90,310 feddan) in the Northeast Delta,
1.6% (20,070 feddan) in the North middle Delta and by 0.1% (1430 feddan) in the
West Delta. For the analysis in this section, the middle impact scenario (B1) is used.
Thus, the focus is on the loss of agricultural land in the Northeast and Middle Delta
regions. This scenario predicted an approximate total loss of 10.4 km
2 of the valuable
agricultural land in the Nile Delta in both cases, the protected and unprotected one.
Temperature increase and SLR that are defined as exposure are expected to impact
agricultural land and farmers (landowners and agricultural laborers) in the Nile Delta
governorates.
4.2 Sensitivity
Sensitivity here refers to the degree to which farmers and agriculture are affected,
either adversely or beneficially, by climate change [53]. The sensitivity of agriculture and farmers in the Nile Delta governorates to temperature increase and SLR
(assuming no change of agricultural land area) is explored in the following part.
4.2.1 Impact of Temperature Increase
The impact of temperature increase on the field crops’ production, field crops’ net
value and employment in the Nile Delta governorates (see Table 11 in Annex for
Percentage reduction of field crops’ yields) is assessed below.
D. M. Gouda
field crops water requirements. Therefore, the impact of climate change on water is
a serious concern for Egypt [40]; however, it is not within the focus of this chapter.
Studies predict that agricultural activity in the Nile Delta could be substantially
affected by SLR through inundation and salinization [47, 50, 51]. The Potential
impact of climate change on the Egyptian economy report [7] used the IPCC’s (B1)
and (A1F1) scenarios for the determination of the impact of SLR on the agricultural
land in the Nile Delta regions in 2030. The impact on governorates is grouped by
region into Northeast, North middle, and West Delta region. The middle impact
scenario (B1) would affect the Northeast and North middle Delta regions and would
have the same impact on agricultural land in both cases, protected or unprotected.
In the Northeast Delta, the agricultural land loss would be 0.0% (620 feddan), while
in the North Middle Delta 0.2% (1860 feddan) would be lost. The agricultural land
in the West Delta would not be affected—though the land elevation would be below
the sea level in 2025—because of the Mohamed Ali Wall [52].
The high impact scenario (A1F1) in case of protection would cause a loss of
0.7% (2700 feddan) of the agricultural land in the Northeast Delta and 0.2% (3200
feddan) of the North middle Delta. In contrast, the unprotected case would affect
the agricultural land by a loss of 25.7% (90,310 feddan) in the Northeast Delta,
1.6% (20,070 feddan) in the North middle Delta and by 0.1% (1430 feddan) in the
West Delta. For the analysis in this section, the middle impact scenario (B1) is used.
Thus, the focus is on the loss of agricultural land in the Northeast and Middle Delta
regions. This scenario predicted an approximate total loss of 10.4 km
2 of the valuable
agricultural land in the Nile Delta in both cases, the protected and unprotected one.
Temperature increase and SLR that are defined as exposure are expected to impact
agricultural land and farmers (landowners and agricultural laborers) in the Nile Delta
governorates.
4.2 Sensitivity
Sensitivity here refers to the degree to which farmers and agriculture are affected,
either adversely or beneficially, by climate change [53]. The sensitivity of agriculture and farmers in the Nile Delta governorates to temperature increase and SLR
(assuming no change of agricultural land area) is explored in the following part.
4.2.1 Impact of Temperature Increase
The impact of temperature increase on the field crops’ production, field crops’ net
value and employment in the Nile Delta governorates (see Table 11 in Annex for
Percentage reduction of field crops’ yields) is assessed below.