Climate Change, Agriculture and Rural Communities’ …
537
4 Impacts of Climate Change Stimuli on Agriculture
in the Nile Delta Governorates in 2030
This section focuses on the impacts of temperature increase and sea-level rise on agriculture to elucidate the vulnerability of agricultural communities in the Nile Delta
governorates in 2030. This is done by (1) identifying the potential future impact of
temperature increase and sea-level-rise (SLR) on field crops’ agricultural land, production, net value and agricultural employment; then (2) assessing the vulnerability
of agricultural communities in the Nile Delta governorates. To this end, this section is
structured in line with the vulnerability assessment framework (VAF) into exposure,
sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on which the vulnerability of the Nile Delta
governorates is determined.
4.1 Exposure
Agriculture in the Nile Delta is highly exposed to climate change effects via temperature increase that is further expected to cause field crops’ deficiencies, and sea-level
rise that might lead to the inundation of large areas of agricultural land in the coastal
governorates of the Nile Delta (the impact of increased salinity due to inundation is
not addressed in this chapter).
Increased temperature threatens agriculture in the Nile Delta, and the condition
would exacerbate if coupled with water shortage [7, 47]. Temperature increase affects
field crops by lowering their yields as well as through expanding crop diseases
8 [48].
According to the proposed climate change adaptation strategy for the Ministry of
Water Resources and Irrigation in Egypt [8], the temperature is expected to increase
by 1 °C by 2025, while the Potential impact of climate change on the Egyptian economy report [7] expects an increase between 0.9 and 1 °C by 2030. The temperature
increase is to affect field crops’ yields differently, i.e. through different percentage
reductions.
The Egyptian Third National Communication in 2016 [49] listed percentages for
field crops’ yields expected reductions in case of a temperature increase of 1.5 °C,
while the Potential impact of climate change on the Egyptian economy used lower
percentages (see Table 11 in Annex for Percentages of yield reduction and water
requirements increase) under the B1 marker scenario. The analysis in this section
uses the percentages of field crops’ reductions stated in the latter report.
Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements may be great, in the case
of upstream precipitation decrease and/or temperature increase in Egypt. The former
would affect the quantity of fresh water received by Egypt via the Nile, while the
latter would increase the evapotranspiration (ET) of field crops [7, 9], thus increasing
8 Climate change and heat waves might also affect human health [8]; however, this topic is beyond
the focus of this chapter.
537
4 Impacts of Climate Change Stimuli on Agriculture
in the Nile Delta Governorates in 2030
This section focuses on the impacts of temperature increase and sea-level rise on agriculture to elucidate the vulnerability of agricultural communities in the Nile Delta
governorates in 2030. This is done by (1) identifying the potential future impact of
temperature increase and sea-level-rise (SLR) on field crops’ agricultural land, production, net value and agricultural employment; then (2) assessing the vulnerability
of agricultural communities in the Nile Delta governorates. To this end, this section is
structured in line with the vulnerability assessment framework (VAF) into exposure,
sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on which the vulnerability of the Nile Delta
governorates is determined.
4.1 Exposure
Agriculture in the Nile Delta is highly exposed to climate change effects via temperature increase that is further expected to cause field crops’ deficiencies, and sea-level
rise that might lead to the inundation of large areas of agricultural land in the coastal
governorates of the Nile Delta (the impact of increased salinity due to inundation is
not addressed in this chapter).
Increased temperature threatens agriculture in the Nile Delta, and the condition
would exacerbate if coupled with water shortage [7, 47]. Temperature increase affects
field crops by lowering their yields as well as through expanding crop diseases
8 [48].
According to the proposed climate change adaptation strategy for the Ministry of
Water Resources and Irrigation in Egypt [8], the temperature is expected to increase
by 1 °C by 2025, while the Potential impact of climate change on the Egyptian economy report [7] expects an increase between 0.9 and 1 °C by 2030. The temperature
increase is to affect field crops’ yields differently, i.e. through different percentage
reductions.
The Egyptian Third National Communication in 2016 [49] listed percentages for
field crops’ yields expected reductions in case of a temperature increase of 1.5 °C,
while the Potential impact of climate change on the Egyptian economy used lower
percentages (see Table 11 in Annex for Percentages of yield reduction and water
requirements increase) under the B1 marker scenario. The analysis in this section
uses the percentages of field crops’ reductions stated in the latter report.
Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements may be great, in the case
of upstream precipitation decrease and/or temperature increase in Egypt. The former
would affect the quantity of fresh water received by Egypt via the Nile, while the
latter would increase the evapotranspiration (ET) of field crops [7, 9], thus increasing
8 Climate change and heat waves might also affect human health [8]; however, this topic is beyond
the focus of this chapter.