536
D. M. Gouda
2015 (without urban expansion). The cotton production is to be affected the most
by a decrease of about 4% followed by cereals and clover with about 3% each. The
total reduction in production accounts for about 3 million tons of total field crops.
Impact on Net Field Crops’ Value
The reduction of field crops’ production would lead to a decrease of 2.3% of the
total net field crops value compared to the situation in Egypt in 2015 (without urban
expansion). The medicinal crops net value is to be affected the most by a decrease
of 4.4%, followed by clover with about 4% and cotton with 3.6%. This loss amounts
about 2 billion Egyptian pounds of the total net field crops value in Egypt based on
2015 data that are equivalent to about US$270 million.
5
Impact on Agricultural Employment
Dividing the loss of agricultural land per governorate by its average landownership
in 2030—accounting for population increase and land fragmentation—shows that
the loss of 218,400 feddan to urbanization would mean that about 240 thousand
landowners in the Nile Delta governorates have decided to transform their land into
urban land. More than 40 thousand landowners in each of Daqahlia, Gharbia, Kafr ElSheikh and Beheira would have decided to urbanize their land (see Table 10 in Annex
for Number of agricultural landowners and average landownership by governorate
by 2030). These landowners would have to look for other sources of income.
Furthermore, the reduction of the field crops’ cropping area by 330,000 feddan
would affect agricultural employment by reducing agricultural working days by about
9 million days.
6 This would equal a total decrease of 2.5% of working days compared
to the situation in Egypt in 2015 (without urban expansion). Moreover, the loss of
about 218,400 feddan would cause a loss of about 360,000 direct and indirect jobs
in the Nile Delta governorates [46].
7
Population growth and land fragmentation are expected to constrain farmers’
resilience to averse the negative impacts of climate change, while urbanization on
agricultural land would increase the effects of climate change on the national level.
Nevertheless, for simplification, the future impacts of the climate change stimuli
on agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates are analyzed, while assuming the
agricultural land area remains unchanged.
5 Calculations are based on the 7.5 exchange rate of 2015.
6 Dividing the 9 million working days by 180 days (the average annual working days per agricultural
laborer) shows that 50,000 laborers will be affected.
7 Multiplying the number of land left fallow by 1.7 (1 direct job and 0.7 indirect job lost by the loss
of one feddan), see [46].
D. M. Gouda
2015 (without urban expansion). The cotton production is to be affected the most
by a decrease of about 4% followed by cereals and clover with about 3% each. The
total reduction in production accounts for about 3 million tons of total field crops.
Impact on Net Field Crops’ Value
The reduction of field crops’ production would lead to a decrease of 2.3% of the
total net field crops value compared to the situation in Egypt in 2015 (without urban
expansion). The medicinal crops net value is to be affected the most by a decrease
of 4.4%, followed by clover with about 4% and cotton with 3.6%. This loss amounts
about 2 billion Egyptian pounds of the total net field crops value in Egypt based on
2015 data that are equivalent to about US$270 million.
5
Impact on Agricultural Employment
Dividing the loss of agricultural land per governorate by its average landownership
in 2030—accounting for population increase and land fragmentation—shows that
the loss of 218,400 feddan to urbanization would mean that about 240 thousand
landowners in the Nile Delta governorates have decided to transform their land into
urban land. More than 40 thousand landowners in each of Daqahlia, Gharbia, Kafr ElSheikh and Beheira would have decided to urbanize their land (see Table 10 in Annex
for Number of agricultural landowners and average landownership by governorate
by 2030). These landowners would have to look for other sources of income.
Furthermore, the reduction of the field crops’ cropping area by 330,000 feddan
would affect agricultural employment by reducing agricultural working days by about
9 million days.
6 This would equal a total decrease of 2.5% of working days compared
to the situation in Egypt in 2015 (without urban expansion). Moreover, the loss of
about 218,400 feddan would cause a loss of about 360,000 direct and indirect jobs
in the Nile Delta governorates [46].
7
Population growth and land fragmentation are expected to constrain farmers’
resilience to averse the negative impacts of climate change, while urbanization on
agricultural land would increase the effects of climate change on the national level.
Nevertheless, for simplification, the future impacts of the climate change stimuli
on agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates are analyzed, while assuming the
agricultural land area remains unchanged.
5 Calculations are based on the 7.5 exchange rate of 2015.
6 Dividing the 9 million working days by 180 days (the average annual working days per agricultural
laborer) shows that 50,000 laborers will be affected.
7 Multiplying the number of land left fallow by 1.7 (1 direct job and 0.7 indirect job lost by the loss
of one feddan), see [46].