Climate Change, Agriculture and Rural Communities’ …
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that necessitates the use of fertilizers. The use of fertilizers is also accelerated due to
land fragmentation that urges landowners to overuse nutrients [42] to increase their
yields to be able to support their families.
Furthermore, areas in the Nile Delta that are suffering from water scarcity—e.g.
located at the end of the irrigation system—do not have access to adequate fresh
water to leach the soil from excessive salt. A study found that about 2 million feddan
in the northern parts of the Nile Delta are suffering from salt-affected soils [27].
Moreover, during the summer season, some farmers irrigate from drains to counter
water shortage [43], which further deteriorates the fertility of the soil.
Accordingly, the excessive use of fertilizers and the irrigation from drains [9]
negatively affect the soils, especially if coupled with fresh water scarcity that harms
soil fertility, crop yields, and livestock and human health [42, 44].
In the following section, the impacts of the socio-economic challenges on
agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates by 2030 are explored.
3 Impacts of Socio-economic Challenges on Agriculture
in the Nile Delta Governorates by 2030
In this section, the socio-economic challenges in the absence of climate change by
2030 are explored, while assuming the natural resources related challenges remain
unchanged. These challenges include population growth, agricultural land fragmentation and urban expansion on agricultural land. Then, the impact of urban expansion
on agricultural land, in terms of field crops’ agricultural land area, production, net
value and employment is assessed.
3.1 Population Growth
According to the population projections of the UN Population Division in 2008 the
population of Egypt might reach, 104 million people in case of a slow growth rate
and 117 million people in case of a fast growth rate by 2030 [43]. In this section, the
fast growth rate scenario is used since in 2017 the population has already reached
about 95 million from about 85 million in 2014, which refers to a 10 million people
increase in just 3 years. Such an increase will have serious implications for food
security, poverty and social stability [45].
For the estimation of the population of the Nile Delta governorates by 2030,
the percentage share of every governorate’s population of total Egypt in 2017 is
multiplied by the total projected population, of 117 million people. The calculation
results in an increase of about 11 million people in the Nile Delta governorates,
from about 46 million in 2017 to 57 million people by 2030, of which about 60%
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that necessitates the use of fertilizers. The use of fertilizers is also accelerated due to
land fragmentation that urges landowners to overuse nutrients [42] to increase their
yields to be able to support their families.
Furthermore, areas in the Nile Delta that are suffering from water scarcity—e.g.
located at the end of the irrigation system—do not have access to adequate fresh
water to leach the soil from excessive salt. A study found that about 2 million feddan
in the northern parts of the Nile Delta are suffering from salt-affected soils [27].
Moreover, during the summer season, some farmers irrigate from drains to counter
water shortage [43], which further deteriorates the fertility of the soil.
Accordingly, the excessive use of fertilizers and the irrigation from drains [9]
negatively affect the soils, especially if coupled with fresh water scarcity that harms
soil fertility, crop yields, and livestock and human health [42, 44].
In the following section, the impacts of the socio-economic challenges on
agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates by 2030 are explored.
3 Impacts of Socio-economic Challenges on Agriculture
in the Nile Delta Governorates by 2030
In this section, the socio-economic challenges in the absence of climate change by
2030 are explored, while assuming the natural resources related challenges remain
unchanged. These challenges include population growth, agricultural land fragmentation and urban expansion on agricultural land. Then, the impact of urban expansion
on agricultural land, in terms of field crops’ agricultural land area, production, net
value and employment is assessed.
3.1 Population Growth
According to the population projections of the UN Population Division in 2008 the
population of Egypt might reach, 104 million people in case of a slow growth rate
and 117 million people in case of a fast growth rate by 2030 [43]. In this section, the
fast growth rate scenario is used since in 2017 the population has already reached
about 95 million from about 85 million in 2014, which refers to a 10 million people
increase in just 3 years. Such an increase will have serious implications for food
security, poverty and social stability [45].
For the estimation of the population of the Nile Delta governorates by 2030,
the percentage share of every governorate’s population of total Egypt in 2017 is
multiplied by the total projected population, of 117 million people. The calculation
results in an increase of about 11 million people in the Nile Delta governorates,
from about 46 million in 2017 to 57 million people by 2030, of which about 60%