532
D. M. Gouda
agricultural land was about 30,000 feddan, but after 2011 increased to about 50,000
feddan annually, which means that urban expansion on agricultural land has increased
by 40% after 2011 in Egypt.
Moreover, Alfiky et al. [34] utter that most of the agricultural land lost to urbanization is concentrated in the Nile Delta, especially in the Middle Delta governorates
that lack desert hinterland for urban expansion. Thus, urban expansion on agricultural land in the Nile Delta between 1952 and 2002 has consumed about 300,000
feddan of the agricultural land [35], i.e. about 6000 feddan were lost per year, while
El-Kholei [36] states that the annual loss of agricultural land between 1984 and 2007
was about 13,000 feddan. To adjust the agricultural land lost to urbanization in the
Nile Delta for the after 2011 period, the 13,000 feddan are increased by 40%, resulting in an annual loss of 18,200 feddan. Therefore, it is sometimes argued that if the
current urbanization trends continue, the Nile Delta will soon be totally transformed
into urban areas [37].
2.2.2 Natural Resources Challenges
The natural resources challenges are composed of water and soil-related impediments. These affect agricultural land and land productivity in the Nile Delta and are
addressed below.
a. Water Scarcity
Egypt is a water scarce country depending on an outside source for about 90% of
its uses [38]. Egypt’s annual freshwater supply is about 64 BCM/year, of which
55.5 BCM are received via the Nile River, in addition to about 1.3 BCM of rainfall
and about 7 BCM of groundwater [30]. About 80% of the fresh water is used for
agricultural production.
Agricultural production in the Nile Delta governorates is dependent on the Nile
water. Nearly 60% of fresh water used for the irrigation of field crops in Egypt is
used in the Nile Delta governorates because precipitation during December to March
(winter season) on the coastal governorates is only between 100 and 200 mm [39].
Therefore, any change in the flow of the Nile, which supplies irrigation water for
agriculture, can have large impacts on agricultural production in the Nile Delta [40].
Consequently, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
with a water storage capacity of 74 BCM might have negative impacts on water availability for Egypt, especially during the dam reservoir filling period. The reduction in
the available fresh water would further reduce the already below—less than 700 cubic
meters per capita per year (m
3 /year)—‘water poverty line’ (1000 m
3 /year) water per
capita share in Egypt [41]. This, in turn, would affect agricultural production and
rural livelihoods [26].
b. Soil Salinity
In Egypt, the agricultural land is cultivated at least twice a year, in the summer and
winter in addition to the Nili season [13], which depletes the soils from their nutrients
D. M. Gouda
agricultural land was about 30,000 feddan, but after 2011 increased to about 50,000
feddan annually, which means that urban expansion on agricultural land has increased
by 40% after 2011 in Egypt.
Moreover, Alfiky et al. [34] utter that most of the agricultural land lost to urbanization is concentrated in the Nile Delta, especially in the Middle Delta governorates
that lack desert hinterland for urban expansion. Thus, urban expansion on agricultural land in the Nile Delta between 1952 and 2002 has consumed about 300,000
feddan of the agricultural land [35], i.e. about 6000 feddan were lost per year, while
El-Kholei [36] states that the annual loss of agricultural land between 1984 and 2007
was about 13,000 feddan. To adjust the agricultural land lost to urbanization in the
Nile Delta for the after 2011 period, the 13,000 feddan are increased by 40%, resulting in an annual loss of 18,200 feddan. Therefore, it is sometimes argued that if the
current urbanization trends continue, the Nile Delta will soon be totally transformed
into urban areas [37].
2.2.2 Natural Resources Challenges
The natural resources challenges are composed of water and soil-related impediments. These affect agricultural land and land productivity in the Nile Delta and are
addressed below.
a. Water Scarcity
Egypt is a water scarce country depending on an outside source for about 90% of
its uses [38]. Egypt’s annual freshwater supply is about 64 BCM/year, of which
55.5 BCM are received via the Nile River, in addition to about 1.3 BCM of rainfall
and about 7 BCM of groundwater [30]. About 80% of the fresh water is used for
agricultural production.
Agricultural production in the Nile Delta governorates is dependent on the Nile
water. Nearly 60% of fresh water used for the irrigation of field crops in Egypt is
used in the Nile Delta governorates because precipitation during December to March
(winter season) on the coastal governorates is only between 100 and 200 mm [39].
Therefore, any change in the flow of the Nile, which supplies irrigation water for
agriculture, can have large impacts on agricultural production in the Nile Delta [40].
Consequently, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
with a water storage capacity of 74 BCM might have negative impacts on water availability for Egypt, especially during the dam reservoir filling period. The reduction in
the available fresh water would further reduce the already below—less than 700 cubic
meters per capita per year (m
3 /year)—‘water poverty line’ (1000 m
3 /year) water per
capita share in Egypt [41]. This, in turn, would affect agricultural production and
rural livelihoods [26].
b. Soil Salinity
In Egypt, the agricultural land is cultivated at least twice a year, in the summer and
winter in addition to the Nili season [13], which depletes the soils from their nutrients