Climate Change, Agriculture and Rural Communities’ …
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2.2.1 Socio-economic Challenges in the Nile Delta
The socio-economic challenges are composed of population growth, agricultural land
fragmentation and urban expansion on agricultural land. These are three interlinked
aspects that impact agricultural production and food self-sufficiency; however, for
analytical purposes, they are addressed separately below.
a. Population Growth
According to the population and establishment census of 2017 [11], the population in
Egypt has reached about 95 million in 2017, revealing an increase of about 10 million
people over the past 3 years [30]. The population of the Nile Delta governorates has
also increased by more than 4 million people, from about 42 million in 2015 to 46
million people in 2017 [11, 30].
The increase in the Nile Delta population in general and that of the rural population—accounting for about 64% of the population—contributes to the decrease
of the per capita agricultural land. Furthermore, population growth coupled with the
limited land area of the Nile Delta have made it among the most densely populated
areas in the world [7]. The average density in the Nile Delta governorates, is about
1800 per km
2 , it was highest in Qalyubia with about 5000 people per km
2 and lowest in Ismailia with about 260 people per km
2 in 2017 (see Table 9 in Annex for
Population density by governorate) [31].
Population growth and increased densities, amplify the pressure on agricultural
land causing its fragmentation.
b. Agricultural Land Fragmentation
Rapid population growth has contributed to the drop of the per capita share in agricultural land from 0.29 feddan in 1950 to about 0.10 feddan since the 1990s in Egypt [11,
13, 30], while the average landownership on the village level is 2 feddan. In the Nile
Delta governorates, the average landownership is 2.3 feddan; however, when excluding Alexandria and Ismailia governorates—due to their relatively sizeable landownerships owed to the added New Lands areas—the average land ownership drops to
1.46 feddan. It is lowest in Gharbia with 0.9 feddan, and Damietta and Qalyubia
with 1.2 feddan respectively, and highest in Ismailia and Alexandria with 6.3 feddan
and 4.9 feddan respectively (see Table 9 in Annex for Average landownership by
governorate in 2017).
Land fragmentation resulting from demographic changes and inheritance reduces
the financial returns of agricultural land, by making it inadequate for supporting a
farming household, which forces farmers to seek to increase their non-farm income
sources. One of these sources is the transformation of their agricultural land into
urban land [32].
c. Urban Expansion on Agricultural Land
According to the Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy of 2030 [24], the
annual loss of agricultural land to urbanization is about 20,000 feddan in the Nile
Delta and Valley. In contrast, Tate [33] states that the annual urban growth on
531
2.2.1 Socio-economic Challenges in the Nile Delta
The socio-economic challenges are composed of population growth, agricultural land
fragmentation and urban expansion on agricultural land. These are three interlinked
aspects that impact agricultural production and food self-sufficiency; however, for
analytical purposes, they are addressed separately below.
a. Population Growth
According to the population and establishment census of 2017 [11], the population in
Egypt has reached about 95 million in 2017, revealing an increase of about 10 million
people over the past 3 years [30]. The population of the Nile Delta governorates has
also increased by more than 4 million people, from about 42 million in 2015 to 46
million people in 2017 [11, 30].
The increase in the Nile Delta population in general and that of the rural population—accounting for about 64% of the population—contributes to the decrease
of the per capita agricultural land. Furthermore, population growth coupled with the
limited land area of the Nile Delta have made it among the most densely populated
areas in the world [7]. The average density in the Nile Delta governorates, is about
1800 per km
2 , it was highest in Qalyubia with about 5000 people per km
2 and lowest in Ismailia with about 260 people per km
2 in 2017 (see Table 9 in Annex for
Population density by governorate) [31].
Population growth and increased densities, amplify the pressure on agricultural
land causing its fragmentation.
b. Agricultural Land Fragmentation
Rapid population growth has contributed to the drop of the per capita share in agricultural land from 0.29 feddan in 1950 to about 0.10 feddan since the 1990s in Egypt [11,
13, 30], while the average landownership on the village level is 2 feddan. In the Nile
Delta governorates, the average landownership is 2.3 feddan; however, when excluding Alexandria and Ismailia governorates—due to their relatively sizeable landownerships owed to the added New Lands areas—the average land ownership drops to
1.46 feddan. It is lowest in Gharbia with 0.9 feddan, and Damietta and Qalyubia
with 1.2 feddan respectively, and highest in Ismailia and Alexandria with 6.3 feddan
and 4.9 feddan respectively (see Table 9 in Annex for Average landownership by
governorate in 2017).
Land fragmentation resulting from demographic changes and inheritance reduces
the financial returns of agricultural land, by making it inadequate for supporting a
farming household, which forces farmers to seek to increase their non-farm income
sources. One of these sources is the transformation of their agricultural land into
urban land [32].
c. Urban Expansion on Agricultural Land
According to the Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy of 2030 [24], the
annual loss of agricultural land to urbanization is about 20,000 feddan in the Nile
Delta and Valley. In contrast, Tate [33] states that the annual urban growth on