534
D. M. Gouda
would live in rural areas. This, in turn, would increase the average population density
in the Nile Delta governorates.
By 2030 the average population density in the Nile Delta governorates would
reach about 2300 per km
2 . The highest density is to be in Qalyubia with about 6000
inhabitants per km
2 and lowest in Ismailia with about 300 inhabitants per km
2 (see
Table 10 in Annex for Population and population densities by governorate by 2030).
Population growth and high population densities would put pressure on available
land in the Nile Delta. It is also to reduce the per capita agricultural land as well as
the average size of agricultural land owned by farmers, i.e. it would further fragment
agricultural land till 2030.
3.2 Agricultural Land Fragmentation
Population growth increases the number of landowners—due to demographic growth
and inheritance—that causes land fragmentation. The percentage change of landownerships by governorate between 1999/2000 and 2015/16 is used to assess the growth
in the number of landowners between 2015/16 and 2030 [30]. The result shows an
increase of about 0.7 million landowners.
The increase in the number of landowners would contribute to the shrinking of
the average landownership in the Nile Delta governorates to 2 feddan—assuming no
increase in the agricultural land area through land reclamation (see Table 10 in Annex
for Average landownership due to population growth by 2030). However, when
excluding Alexandria and Ismailia—that have relatively large landownerships—the
average landownership would be 1.2 feddan by 2030. The governorates with the
lowest landownership average would be Gharbia and Damietta, with 0.6 feddan and
0.8 feddan respectively. The shrinking agricultural landownerships, low returns and
population growth are expected to accelerate the transformation of agricultural land
into urban land.
3.3 Urban Expansion on Agricultural Land
This section relies on the literature discussed under 2.2.1. It assumes that the annual
loss of agricultural land to urbanization in the Nile Delta governorates is 18,200
feddan. This means that by 2030 (i.e. 12 years from now) the loss of agricultural
land to urbanization would amount 218,400 feddan.
The 218,400 feddan account for about 4.5% of the total agricultural land area
(field crops area) in the Nile Delta governorates. For the determination of the lost
cropping area by 2030, the field crops area by governorate is reduced by 4.5% (based
on 2015 data). Adding up the reduced areas would equal a reduction of about 330,000
feddan cropping area in the Nile Delta governorates. This reduction would have local
and national implications.
D. M. Gouda
would live in rural areas. This, in turn, would increase the average population density
in the Nile Delta governorates.
By 2030 the average population density in the Nile Delta governorates would
reach about 2300 per km
2 . The highest density is to be in Qalyubia with about 6000
inhabitants per km
2 and lowest in Ismailia with about 300 inhabitants per km
2 (see
Table 10 in Annex for Population and population densities by governorate by 2030).
Population growth and high population densities would put pressure on available
land in the Nile Delta. It is also to reduce the per capita agricultural land as well as
the average size of agricultural land owned by farmers, i.e. it would further fragment
agricultural land till 2030.
3.2 Agricultural Land Fragmentation
Population growth increases the number of landowners—due to demographic growth
and inheritance—that causes land fragmentation. The percentage change of landownerships by governorate between 1999/2000 and 2015/16 is used to assess the growth
in the number of landowners between 2015/16 and 2030 [30]. The result shows an
increase of about 0.7 million landowners.
The increase in the number of landowners would contribute to the shrinking of
the average landownership in the Nile Delta governorates to 2 feddan—assuming no
increase in the agricultural land area through land reclamation (see Table 10 in Annex
for Average landownership due to population growth by 2030). However, when
excluding Alexandria and Ismailia—that have relatively large landownerships—the
average landownership would be 1.2 feddan by 2030. The governorates with the
lowest landownership average would be Gharbia and Damietta, with 0.6 feddan and
0.8 feddan respectively. The shrinking agricultural landownerships, low returns and
population growth are expected to accelerate the transformation of agricultural land
into urban land.
3.3 Urban Expansion on Agricultural Land
This section relies on the literature discussed under 2.2.1. It assumes that the annual
loss of agricultural land to urbanization in the Nile Delta governorates is 18,200
feddan. This means that by 2030 (i.e. 12 years from now) the loss of agricultural
land to urbanization would amount 218,400 feddan.
The 218,400 feddan account for about 4.5% of the total agricultural land area
(field crops area) in the Nile Delta governorates. For the determination of the lost
cropping area by 2030, the field crops area by governorate is reduced by 4.5% (based
on 2015 data). Adding up the reduced areas would equal a reduction of about 330,000
feddan cropping area in the Nile Delta governorates. This reduction would have local
and national implications.