Agricultural Production in Egypt: Assessing Vulnerability …
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The environment will be impacted as well due to the anticipated increase of desertification, land degradation and biodiversity losses. Ultimately, people migration will
be accelerated.
Recently the ‘Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate
Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region’
(RICCAR) was established through a project involving all the countries of the region
in partnership between FAO, GIZ, ACSAD and ESCWA. The outcome of the RICCAR that was launched in November 2017 focused on the change in maximum and
minimum temperatures, change of precipitation, changes in evapotranspiration (ET).
The future climate change data were generated through downscaling projections
from three global circulation models, EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5, and GFDL-ESM,
exercised on the Arab region using the regional climate model RCA4 to provide
higher-resolution information (50 km).
The effect of climate change on agriculture in the region is expected to vary
by according to the existing farming system Table 1. In some areas, farmers can
respond to changes through adaptation measures. In other regions, agriculture may
Table 1 Impact of climate change on different farming systems in the Aran region
Farming system Exposure
Expected climate change-related
events
Sensitivity
Likely impact on farming systems
Irrigated
Increased temperatures
Reduced supply of surface irrigation
water
Dwindling of groundwater recharge
More water stresses
Increased demand for irrigation and
water transfer
Reduced yields when temperatures
are too high Salinization due to
reduced leaching
Reduction in cropping intensity
Highland mixed Increase in aridity
Greater risk of drought
Possible lengthening of the growing
period
Reduced supply of irrigation water
Reduction in yields
Reduction in cropping intensity
Increased demand for irrigation
Rain-fed mixed Increase in aridity
Greater risk of drought
Reduced supply of irrigation water
Reduction in yields
Reduction in cropping intensity
Increased demand for irrigation
Dryland mixed
Increase in aridity
Greater risk of drought
Reduced supply of irrigation water
A system very vulnerable to
declining rainfall
Some lands may revert to rangeland
Increased demand for irrigation
Pastoral
Increase in aridity
Greater risk of drought
Reduced water for livestock and
fodder
A very vulnerable system, where
desertification may reduce carrying
capacity significantly
Non-farm activities exit from
farming, migration
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The environment will be impacted as well due to the anticipated increase of desertification, land degradation and biodiversity losses. Ultimately, people migration will
be accelerated.
Recently the ‘Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate
Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region’
(RICCAR) was established through a project involving all the countries of the region
in partnership between FAO, GIZ, ACSAD and ESCWA. The outcome of the RICCAR that was launched in November 2017 focused on the change in maximum and
minimum temperatures, change of precipitation, changes in evapotranspiration (ET).
The future climate change data were generated through downscaling projections
from three global circulation models, EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5, and GFDL-ESM,
exercised on the Arab region using the regional climate model RCA4 to provide
higher-resolution information (50 km).
The effect of climate change on agriculture in the region is expected to vary
by according to the existing farming system Table 1. In some areas, farmers can
respond to changes through adaptation measures. In other regions, agriculture may
Table 1 Impact of climate change on different farming systems in the Aran region
Farming system Exposure
Expected climate change-related
events
Sensitivity
Likely impact on farming systems
Irrigated
Increased temperatures
Reduced supply of surface irrigation
water
Dwindling of groundwater recharge
More water stresses
Increased demand for irrigation and
water transfer
Reduced yields when temperatures
are too high Salinization due to
reduced leaching
Reduction in cropping intensity
Highland mixed Increase in aridity
Greater risk of drought
Possible lengthening of the growing
period
Reduced supply of irrigation water
Reduction in yields
Reduction in cropping intensity
Increased demand for irrigation
Rain-fed mixed Increase in aridity
Greater risk of drought
Reduced supply of irrigation water
Reduction in yields
Reduction in cropping intensity
Increased demand for irrigation
Dryland mixed
Increase in aridity
Greater risk of drought
Reduced supply of irrigation water
A system very vulnerable to
declining rainfall
Some lands may revert to rangeland
Increased demand for irrigation
Pastoral
Increase in aridity
Greater risk of drought
Reduced water for livestock and
fodder
A very vulnerable system, where
desertification may reduce carrying
capacity significantly
Non-farm activities exit from
farming, migration