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M. A. S. Abdel Monem and B. Radojevic
• Sensitivity tells us about the status quo of the physical and natural environment of
the affected systems that makes them particularly susceptible to climate change.
For example, a sensitivity factor could be topography, land use land cover, distribution and density of population, built environment, proximity to the coast,
etc.
• Potential Impact is determined by combining exposure and sensitivity to climate
change on a system.
• Adaptive capacity “the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including
climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage
of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences” [8].
The focus of the global process lead by the UNFCCCis on identifying the most
vulnerable countries to climate change. At this level, assessment is focused on the
degree of exposure to climate variability and change; however, some of the proposed
approaches also consider economic factors, such as poverty data. The poorest, often
are most vulnerable people to climate change, in particular, those who face social
exclusion, marginalization in their communities and countries, and inequality in
terms of rights, power and access to resources and services. Evaluation of capacities
and priorities of the most vulnerable groups are the main focus of vulnerability
assessments in any region.
2 Vulnerability of the Near East and North Africa Region
to Climate Change
Between 2006 and 2010 the Arab Region was exposed to one of its most severe
drought cycles in the past century, leading to a loss of livelihoods, high food prices,
and decreased purchasing power for the average citizen. For example in Syria, the
drought devastated the livelihoods of about 20% of the rural population, displacing
up to 1 million people and fueled mass internal displacement and social tensions
in advance of broader conflicts that have more recently emerged. In Somalia in
2011 with approximately 4 million people were displaced and about 900,000 people
displaced solely due to the drought between November 2016 and August 2017 [9].
More than 40% of the people in the Arab region have already been exposed to drought
and other climatic disasters [10].
Food and water shortage is a critical issue in the Near East North Africa Region
(NENA region) with strong implications for the national security. However, among
major trends expected to impact the Region, climate change is perhaps the most critical, acting as the “ultimate threat multiplier” [11]. According to the IPCC [12] assessment, Near East North Africa is one of the world regions that are most vulnerable
to climatic change. It is anticipated that such a climate change impact would reduce
crop yield up to 30%. The livelihoods of a large segment of the region’s population,
particularly those depending on small scale rainfed agriculture, will be at great risk.
M. A. S. Abdel Monem and B. Radojevic
• Sensitivity tells us about the status quo of the physical and natural environment of
the affected systems that makes them particularly susceptible to climate change.
For example, a sensitivity factor could be topography, land use land cover, distribution and density of population, built environment, proximity to the coast,
etc.
• Potential Impact is determined by combining exposure and sensitivity to climate
change on a system.
• Adaptive capacity “the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including
climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage
of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences” [8].
The focus of the global process lead by the UNFCCCis on identifying the most
vulnerable countries to climate change. At this level, assessment is focused on the
degree of exposure to climate variability and change; however, some of the proposed
approaches also consider economic factors, such as poverty data. The poorest, often
are most vulnerable people to climate change, in particular, those who face social
exclusion, marginalization in their communities and countries, and inequality in
terms of rights, power and access to resources and services. Evaluation of capacities
and priorities of the most vulnerable groups are the main focus of vulnerability
assessments in any region.
2 Vulnerability of the Near East and North Africa Region
to Climate Change
Between 2006 and 2010 the Arab Region was exposed to one of its most severe
drought cycles in the past century, leading to a loss of livelihoods, high food prices,
and decreased purchasing power for the average citizen. For example in Syria, the
drought devastated the livelihoods of about 20% of the rural population, displacing
up to 1 million people and fueled mass internal displacement and social tensions
in advance of broader conflicts that have more recently emerged. In Somalia in
2011 with approximately 4 million people were displaced and about 900,000 people
displaced solely due to the drought between November 2016 and August 2017 [9].
More than 40% of the people in the Arab region have already been exposed to drought
and other climatic disasters [10].
Food and water shortage is a critical issue in the Near East North Africa Region
(NENA region) with strong implications for the national security. However, among
major trends expected to impact the Region, climate change is perhaps the most critical, acting as the “ultimate threat multiplier” [11]. According to the IPCC [12] assessment, Near East North Africa is one of the world regions that are most vulnerable
to climatic change. It is anticipated that such a climate change impact would reduce
crop yield up to 30%. The livelihoods of a large segment of the region’s population,
particularly those depending on small scale rainfed agriculture, will be at great risk.