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M. A. S. Abdel Monem and B. Radojevic
face serious challenges, and ruler inhabitants might need to change their livelihood
to off- farm employment or relocate [13].
The two considered climate scenarios are based on selected Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), specifically RCP 4.5 (moderate-case scenario) and RCP
8.5 (worst-case scenario). The projected climatic and hydrological data are presented as the change between the twenty-year periods of 2046–2065 (mid-century)
and 2081–2100 (end-century) concerning the baseline period of 1986–2005. Results
[14] illustrate that change in maximum temperature to the middle of the century
shows a varied increase between 0.3 and 2.4 °C in RCP 4.5 and from 1.1 to 3.4 °C
under RCP 8.5. Towards the end of the century, the change “shows an increase
between 1 and 3 °C in RCP 4.5 and from 2 to 5 °C with RCP 8.5”.
The general change in annual average minimum temperatures to the middle of the
century shows a varied increase under RCP 4.5 that goes from less than 1 °C at the
Mediterranean coasts to more than 2 °C in the Sahara desert, the Atlantic mountains
and Euphrates-Tigris basin. Under RCP 8.5 the rise exceeds 1 °C almost everywhere
in the Arab region and reaches 3–3.5 °C in some areas of the Sahara desert. The
change of minimum temperatures is more evident towards the end of the century
increasing between 1 and 3 °C in RCP 4.5 and from 2 to 5 °C and more with RCP
8.5. The increasing change in temperature becomes much more evident throughout
the region with scenario RCP 8.5, when the increased temperature by more than 3 °C
would cover most of the Arab region.
Decreasing trends in precipitation will occur in most of the Arab region towards the
midcentury, with a reduction of about 90 mm in average annual precipitation for the
Atlas Mountains when worse-case scenario is considered (RCP 8.5). For the end of the
century, both scenarios show a reduction of the average annual precipitation reaching
90–120 mm/year in the coastal areas and mainly around the Atlas Mountains in the
west and upper Euphrates and Tigris river basins in the East. The projected annual
change in precipitations is compliant with projected changes in evapotranspiration
(ET). The most affected areas are spread out in the coastal zones of the Northern
Africa (especially in the West: Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia), but also in the Sahel,
in the north of Horn of Africa as well as in the coasts of Arabian Peninsula (mostly
in the south-west).
The overall RICCAR assessment indicates a consistent warming trend; increased
minimum and maximum temperatures coupled with reduced precipitations, reduced
runoff and increased evapotranspiration in most of the region, though with important
spatial variations. More specifically, the vulnerability of the agricultural sectors in
the Arab Region to climate change could be explained in the context of impact of
climate change on water sector. Water scarcity as the one of the main environmental
challenges in the Arab Region, with the lowest freshwater resource Per-capita in the
world; very low and variable precipitation. Impact of climate change on the Arab
Region will add more stress to the already limited resources. It is expected to have
more weather extreme events while the temperature will increase in several parts
of the Region. Combination of less rainfall and increase in temperature added to
the other factors such as growing population will adversatively contribute to the
vulnerability of the region to climate change.
M. A. S. Abdel Monem and B. Radojevic
face serious challenges, and ruler inhabitants might need to change their livelihood
to off- farm employment or relocate [13].
The two considered climate scenarios are based on selected Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), specifically RCP 4.5 (moderate-case scenario) and RCP
8.5 (worst-case scenario). The projected climatic and hydrological data are presented as the change between the twenty-year periods of 2046–2065 (mid-century)
and 2081–2100 (end-century) concerning the baseline period of 1986–2005. Results
[14] illustrate that change in maximum temperature to the middle of the century
shows a varied increase between 0.3 and 2.4 °C in RCP 4.5 and from 1.1 to 3.4 °C
under RCP 8.5. Towards the end of the century, the change “shows an increase
between 1 and 3 °C in RCP 4.5 and from 2 to 5 °C with RCP 8.5”.
The general change in annual average minimum temperatures to the middle of the
century shows a varied increase under RCP 4.5 that goes from less than 1 °C at the
Mediterranean coasts to more than 2 °C in the Sahara desert, the Atlantic mountains
and Euphrates-Tigris basin. Under RCP 8.5 the rise exceeds 1 °C almost everywhere
in the Arab region and reaches 3–3.5 °C in some areas of the Sahara desert. The
change of minimum temperatures is more evident towards the end of the century
increasing between 1 and 3 °C in RCP 4.5 and from 2 to 5 °C and more with RCP
8.5. The increasing change in temperature becomes much more evident throughout
the region with scenario RCP 8.5, when the increased temperature by more than 3 °C
would cover most of the Arab region.
Decreasing trends in precipitation will occur in most of the Arab region towards the
midcentury, with a reduction of about 90 mm in average annual precipitation for the
Atlas Mountains when worse-case scenario is considered (RCP 8.5). For the end of the
century, both scenarios show a reduction of the average annual precipitation reaching
90–120 mm/year in the coastal areas and mainly around the Atlas Mountains in the
west and upper Euphrates and Tigris river basins in the East. The projected annual
change in precipitations is compliant with projected changes in evapotranspiration
(ET). The most affected areas are spread out in the coastal zones of the Northern
Africa (especially in the West: Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia), but also in the Sahel,
in the north of Horn of Africa as well as in the coasts of Arabian Peninsula (mostly
in the south-west).
The overall RICCAR assessment indicates a consistent warming trend; increased
minimum and maximum temperatures coupled with reduced precipitations, reduced
runoff and increased evapotranspiration in most of the region, though with important
spatial variations. More specifically, the vulnerability of the agricultural sectors in
the Arab Region to climate change could be explained in the context of impact of
climate change on water sector. Water scarcity as the one of the main environmental
challenges in the Arab Region, with the lowest freshwater resource Per-capita in the
world; very low and variable precipitation. Impact of climate change on the Arab
Region will add more stress to the already limited resources. It is expected to have
more weather extreme events while the temperature will increase in several parts
of the Region. Combination of less rainfall and increase in temperature added to
the other factors such as growing population will adversatively contribute to the
vulnerability of the region to climate change.