163
ated development of new areas for agriculture/horticulture. The negative points are
many and of all the natural processes, changes in precipitation patterns resulting in
droughts or floods have the potential to reduce or even decimate agricultural production. Many regions in Himalaya, especially the foothills produce various types
of fruits and vegetables with little or nil insecticides. The hot climate and less precipitations is going take away this resource very fast from the region, thus jeopardising the livelihood of many farmers’ dependent on it. The limited cash crop production
from Himalaya may trigger food security in the plain regions with far reaching
consequences. The draught regions may create intense competition for scarce water
resource, the fallout of which could be an internal conflict with implications across
the border regions. The natural hazards are likely to increase in frequency and intensity and the poor and far flung people may become more vulnerable with climate
change. Since the inner regions of Himalaya are not yet well connected, the chances
of them escaping the onslaught are very remote. Aftermath natural disaster, the
increased incidence of diseases and other health issues will compound the suffering
and loss of human life in Himalaya.
The base flow in river streams is eventually going to reduce with the depletion of
glaciers in Himalaya, which would immensely affect hydropower of the states. The
extreme runoff from rivers and streams during intense precipitation events may
destabilize slopes, erode regolith causing extensive damage to embankments, roads,
forests, and hydropower reservoirs with excessive silt. The lowland and downstream
regions will become more vulnerable with sudden spurt of intense precipitation.
With the melting of glaciers, the frequency of GLOF, already on increase in some
regions of Himalaya may further increase in years to come.
The geopolitical situation of the Himalayan region in this subcontinent is very
complex and requires a thorough analysis of all the factors responsible for usurping
the security to the region. There are many stakeholders surrounding the longest
mountain belt and each is sandwiched into each other that none can afford to be
casual about the implications of climate change in the region. Water here is the main
resource, which would be closely watched and also guarded in future. Precipitation
through Indian Summer Monsoon is well spread out especially in the central and
eastern portions of Himalaya. Yet a lot of it is wasted as run off in the major river
system to the ocean. In fact, there is a concern when excess rain in short spells like
cloud burst etc. is causing heavy damage to the infrastructure of the nation. The
effect of climate change would thus have serious repercussions on the geopolitical
situation of the region encompassing entire Himalayan belt. Water resource, which
the Himalayan belt is endowed with, may become the source of conflict jeopardising the security of the region with the incidence of extreme climate events that is
expected to increase in future.
In case of environmental degradation due to climate change, which may lead to
threats to agriculture, horticulture, livestock and fisheries, this may weaken the
resource base of local communities or even entire societies, which may lead to ethnic clashes. The chain of events that may follow is shown in Fig. 1 as under.
Implications of Changing Climatic Pattern on the Geopolitical Situation of North…
ated development of new areas for agriculture/horticulture. The negative points are
many and of all the natural processes, changes in precipitation patterns resulting in
droughts or floods have the potential to reduce or even decimate agricultural production. Many regions in Himalaya, especially the foothills produce various types
of fruits and vegetables with little or nil insecticides. The hot climate and less precipitations is going take away this resource very fast from the region, thus jeopardising the livelihood of many farmers’ dependent on it. The limited cash crop production
from Himalaya may trigger food security in the plain regions with far reaching
consequences. The draught regions may create intense competition for scarce water
resource, the fallout of which could be an internal conflict with implications across
the border regions. The natural hazards are likely to increase in frequency and intensity and the poor and far flung people may become more vulnerable with climate
change. Since the inner regions of Himalaya are not yet well connected, the chances
of them escaping the onslaught are very remote. Aftermath natural disaster, the
increased incidence of diseases and other health issues will compound the suffering
and loss of human life in Himalaya.
The base flow in river streams is eventually going to reduce with the depletion of
glaciers in Himalaya, which would immensely affect hydropower of the states. The
extreme runoff from rivers and streams during intense precipitation events may
destabilize slopes, erode regolith causing extensive damage to embankments, roads,
forests, and hydropower reservoirs with excessive silt. The lowland and downstream
regions will become more vulnerable with sudden spurt of intense precipitation.
With the melting of glaciers, the frequency of GLOF, already on increase in some
regions of Himalaya may further increase in years to come.
The geopolitical situation of the Himalayan region in this subcontinent is very
complex and requires a thorough analysis of all the factors responsible for usurping
the security to the region. There are many stakeholders surrounding the longest
mountain belt and each is sandwiched into each other that none can afford to be
casual about the implications of climate change in the region. Water here is the main
resource, which would be closely watched and also guarded in future. Precipitation
through Indian Summer Monsoon is well spread out especially in the central and
eastern portions of Himalaya. Yet a lot of it is wasted as run off in the major river
system to the ocean. In fact, there is a concern when excess rain in short spells like
cloud burst etc. is causing heavy damage to the infrastructure of the nation. The
effect of climate change would thus have serious repercussions on the geopolitical
situation of the region encompassing entire Himalayan belt. Water resource, which
the Himalayan belt is endowed with, may become the source of conflict jeopardising the security of the region with the incidence of extreme climate events that is
expected to increase in future.
In case of environmental degradation due to climate change, which may lead to
threats to agriculture, horticulture, livestock and fisheries, this may weaken the
resource base of local communities or even entire societies, which may lead to ethnic clashes. The chain of events that may follow is shown in Fig. 1 as under.
Implications of Changing Climatic Pattern on the Geopolitical Situation of North…