162
a few measurements from inner Himalaya that have thrown some light on the
concentration of aerosols at high altitudes (Chaubay et al. 2011), which are not sufficient to explain why some glaciers are still advancing in Karakoram Himalaya. An
attempt through modelling (Kumar et al. 2015) has many assumptions and uncertainties though it does show a direction that can be probed further. With sparse data,
all energy budget calculations based on selected studies conducted in accessible
regions of the Himalaya and most of the deductions are drawn from the model simulations, which are yet to be verified by ground turthing (Datt et al. 2008; Azam et al.
2014a, b).
There is an urgent need to improve the understanding of processes and dynamics
of weather systems in different weather and climate models for the Himalayan
region. There are wide gaps in the knowledge of the short and long-term implications of the impact of climate change on glaciers, water, environment and hazards in
the Himalaya. This is primarily due to the fact that most studies on global climate
have excluded Himalayan region because of its extreme and complex topography
and the lack of adequate observation points in the form of gauge & other ancillary
data. As a result, the capacity required for adapting to future climate change in
Himalaya has also not been studied. There is a critical requirement of synthesizing
information from scanty and assorted research, with a twofold purpose of identifying the gap areas and list out guidelines for policy and decision makers, planners etc.
5 Geopolitical Consequences
The Himalaya spreads over to more than one country –Afghanistan, Bhutan, China,
India, Nepal, Pakistan, Myanmar. It is a store house of water and also a topographic
feature that facilitates augmentation of rainwater in the foothills and some inner
regions of Himalaya. It has a challenging terrain like nowhere else in the world with
ample natural resources in terms of mineral, biological and hydropower potential.
The Himalaya is also an area where mountain building activity is still going on making the entire region tectonically very unstable with risk of natural calamities such
as earthquakes, landslides, avalanches and floods The climate change may further
accelerate some of these risks. What would be the affect of these on inhabitants of
the Himalayan States, inhabitants in the neighbouring region, is a question that
needs to be addressed. Large scale migration and demographic changes may be the
natural outcome. In such a situation, the region may become centre of conflict.
There are not many positive aspects to climate change in Himalaya in comparison to negative ones, except that warming may pave way for better accessibility to
hitherto snow covered regions and a better border vigilance, which is exceedingly
difficult as on date for all Himalayan States. The increased accessibility of terrain in
winters may have important military and political consequences, on strategic as
well as at operational levels. This may have consequences for military practices,
exercises, and equipment requirements etc. The other positive impact could be the
expansion in temperate grassland and cold temperate coniferous forest with associA. Ganju and H. S. Negi
a few measurements from inner Himalaya that have thrown some light on the
concentration of aerosols at high altitudes (Chaubay et al. 2011), which are not sufficient to explain why some glaciers are still advancing in Karakoram Himalaya. An
attempt through modelling (Kumar et al. 2015) has many assumptions and uncertainties though it does show a direction that can be probed further. With sparse data,
all energy budget calculations based on selected studies conducted in accessible
regions of the Himalaya and most of the deductions are drawn from the model simulations, which are yet to be verified by ground turthing (Datt et al. 2008; Azam et al.
2014a, b).
There is an urgent need to improve the understanding of processes and dynamics
of weather systems in different weather and climate models for the Himalayan
region. There are wide gaps in the knowledge of the short and long-term implications of the impact of climate change on glaciers, water, environment and hazards in
the Himalaya. This is primarily due to the fact that most studies on global climate
have excluded Himalayan region because of its extreme and complex topography
and the lack of adequate observation points in the form of gauge & other ancillary
data. As a result, the capacity required for adapting to future climate change in
Himalaya has also not been studied. There is a critical requirement of synthesizing
information from scanty and assorted research, with a twofold purpose of identifying the gap areas and list out guidelines for policy and decision makers, planners etc.
5 Geopolitical Consequences
The Himalaya spreads over to more than one country –Afghanistan, Bhutan, China,
India, Nepal, Pakistan, Myanmar. It is a store house of water and also a topographic
feature that facilitates augmentation of rainwater in the foothills and some inner
regions of Himalaya. It has a challenging terrain like nowhere else in the world with
ample natural resources in terms of mineral, biological and hydropower potential.
The Himalaya is also an area where mountain building activity is still going on making the entire region tectonically very unstable with risk of natural calamities such
as earthquakes, landslides, avalanches and floods The climate change may further
accelerate some of these risks. What would be the affect of these on inhabitants of
the Himalayan States, inhabitants in the neighbouring region, is a question that
needs to be addressed. Large scale migration and demographic changes may be the
natural outcome. In such a situation, the region may become centre of conflict.
There are not many positive aspects to climate change in Himalaya in comparison to negative ones, except that warming may pave way for better accessibility to
hitherto snow covered regions and a better border vigilance, which is exceedingly
difficult as on date for all Himalayan States. The increased accessibility of terrain in
winters may have important military and political consequences, on strategic as
well as at operational levels. This may have consequences for military practices,
exercises, and equipment requirements etc. The other positive impact could be the
expansion in temperate grassland and cold temperate coniferous forest with associA. Ganju and H. S. Negi