161
ginal increase in temperature field has not yet made a dent in KH where
temperatures are still in subfreezing range even during ablation period. This
obviously has resulted in less ablation, indirectly implying marginal gain in
mass, which is perhaps responsible for stability in the glaciated region of
Karakoram Himalaya.
3 Aftermath and Consequences
Himalaya exhibits huge variability in terms of its dry and moist climate, agriculture
and pastureland, desert and wetland, meadows and rocky land etc. With climate
change this variability may become more pronounced forcing people to abandon
certain inhospitable regions and occupy limited congenial places. This is likely to
create chaotic situation in the region. All research findings, have interpreted the
likelihood of such situation to evolve as a result of climate change. The visible
manifestations of the effects of climate change cannot be ignored or assigned to
only natural rhythm of earth processes, which it has undergone through millions of
years. There has been an intervention, which knowingly or unknowingly has caused
a damage, which could become serious in years to come. While increase in greenhouse gases is considered to be a major factor responsible for climate change, yet
there are many other factors, which might have accelerated it. The cascading effect
may have already started from the emission of greenhouse gases, which has polluted
the atmosphere, increased aerosol concentration resulting in the changes in distribution of heat in the lower atmosphere. Deforestation, conversion of grassland to agriculture land, etc. are a few other factors responsible for this change. A chain reaction
may follow, from increased extreme weather events e.g. cloud bursts, avalanches,
landslides; increased frequency of wildfires, leading to imbalance in ecosystem;
radiative cooling etc. leading one disaster to another. Glacier retreat in the Himalaya
results from precipitation decrease in combination with temperature increase. The
glacier shrinkage will speed up if the climatic warming and drying continues. The
excessive consumerism and scant respect to natural resources has resulted in
decrease in stream flow and polluted some natural streams of the Himalaya. Shifting
of tree line to higher elevations may be a welcome sign but down slope trees are
likely to die and crop output may reduce with spraying of higher concentration of
insecticides etc. to keep them alive. All this is a recipe of a disaster; which
the Himalaya may go through in years to come.
4 Unperceived and Unexplained
There are many unexplored research areas in the Himalaya, on which scientists in
their pursuit have had marginal success so far. We do not know how far and how
much is the influence of aerosols with certainty (Ramanathan et al. 2001). There are
Implications of Changing Climatic Pattern on the Geopolitical Situation of North…
ginal increase in temperature field has not yet made a dent in KH where
temperatures are still in subfreezing range even during ablation period. This
obviously has resulted in less ablation, indirectly implying marginal gain in
mass, which is perhaps responsible for stability in the glaciated region of
Karakoram Himalaya.
3 Aftermath and Consequences
Himalaya exhibits huge variability in terms of its dry and moist climate, agriculture
and pastureland, desert and wetland, meadows and rocky land etc. With climate
change this variability may become more pronounced forcing people to abandon
certain inhospitable regions and occupy limited congenial places. This is likely to
create chaotic situation in the region. All research findings, have interpreted the
likelihood of such situation to evolve as a result of climate change. The visible
manifestations of the effects of climate change cannot be ignored or assigned to
only natural rhythm of earth processes, which it has undergone through millions of
years. There has been an intervention, which knowingly or unknowingly has caused
a damage, which could become serious in years to come. While increase in greenhouse gases is considered to be a major factor responsible for climate change, yet
there are many other factors, which might have accelerated it. The cascading effect
may have already started from the emission of greenhouse gases, which has polluted
the atmosphere, increased aerosol concentration resulting in the changes in distribution of heat in the lower atmosphere. Deforestation, conversion of grassland to agriculture land, etc. are a few other factors responsible for this change. A chain reaction
may follow, from increased extreme weather events e.g. cloud bursts, avalanches,
landslides; increased frequency of wildfires, leading to imbalance in ecosystem;
radiative cooling etc. leading one disaster to another. Glacier retreat in the Himalaya
results from precipitation decrease in combination with temperature increase. The
glacier shrinkage will speed up if the climatic warming and drying continues. The
excessive consumerism and scant respect to natural resources has resulted in
decrease in stream flow and polluted some natural streams of the Himalaya. Shifting
of tree line to higher elevations may be a welcome sign but down slope trees are
likely to die and crop output may reduce with spraying of higher concentration of
insecticides etc. to keep them alive. All this is a recipe of a disaster; which
the Himalaya may go through in years to come.
4 Unperceived and Unexplained
There are many unexplored research areas in the Himalaya, on which scientists in
their pursuit have had marginal success so far. We do not know how far and how
much is the influence of aerosols with certainty (Ramanathan et al. 2001). There are
Implications of Changing Climatic Pattern on the Geopolitical Situation of North…