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example, in cities of the municipalities of Tijuana and Mexicali in the state of Baja
California, of Peñasco in the state of Sonora, and of Benito Juárez in the state of
Quintana Roo. Most coastal cities have expanded to promote tourism projects, but
some do so centered in the marine zones like in Cancun, Los Cabos, and Vallarta,
and others focusing in industrial zones, as in the case of the oil producing cities of
Coatzacoalcos and Minatitlán in the state of Veracruz. Land use change reflects the
results obtained with the previous indicator but it is agricultural use which has transformed most of the coastal natural vegetation. Forests transformed into pastures and
coconut plantations are the dominant land use changes in the coastal areas of the
municipalities of the Southern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico regions. The coastal
vegetation indicator measures the proportion of coastal vegetation (wetlands, mangroves, and dunes), and reaches very high values in most municipalities.
Coastal Adaptation Capacity Subindex
The capacity of adaptation to the effects of climate change of the country’s coastal
municipalities was estimated as a measure of institutional governance. The basic
premise was that a coastal municipality has a better capacity to adapt if it has enough
planning policy instruments for the attention of emergencies caused by the effects
of climate change. At the municipal level, four indicators to estimate this subindex
are: municipal risk atlas, action plans for the effects of climate change, municipal
research and planning institutes, and environmental protection instruments like protected areas.
The presence of a municipal risk atlas is an indicator that reflects the existence of
an official instrument generated by the Mexican government (SEGOB 2019) to provide local knowledge about exposure to events and the sensitivity of the population
to them, which is the basis for adaptation. The Mexican government also has a
program to develop municipal actions for the effects of climate change (SEDESOL
2012). This indicator reflects a step further in the capacity of the municipalities to
adapt. There is an association of organisms or institutes for the integral planning of
municipalities committed to the comprehensive development planning that promotes the collection of information in long-term planning to give continuity to plans
and projects, and to favor citizen participation through public policies having an
effect on the local and regional culture towards sustainability (AMIMP 2003).
Therefore, we selected the presence of such planning institutes as an indicator
reflecting the capacity of the municipality to carry out planning tasks and establish
continuity in the processes with a vision of sustainable development, elements conducive to an adaptation to the impacts of climate change.
The values of these three indicators were scored as presence or absence (risk
atlas, climate change actions plan, and planning institutes), since we could not find
performance evaluations of such instruments for each municipality at the national
scale. Another indicator was added, the indicator of protected areas, defined as the
ratio of protected areas recognized by the National Commission of Natural Protected
17 Vulnerability to the Effects of Climate Change: Future Aridness and Present…
example, in cities of the municipalities of Tijuana and Mexicali in the state of Baja
California, of Peñasco in the state of Sonora, and of Benito Juárez in the state of
Quintana Roo. Most coastal cities have expanded to promote tourism projects, but
some do so centered in the marine zones like in Cancun, Los Cabos, and Vallarta,
and others focusing in industrial zones, as in the case of the oil producing cities of
Coatzacoalcos and Minatitlán in the state of Veracruz. Land use change reflects the
results obtained with the previous indicator but it is agricultural use which has transformed most of the coastal natural vegetation. Forests transformed into pastures and
coconut plantations are the dominant land use changes in the coastal areas of the
municipalities of the Southern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico regions. The coastal
vegetation indicator measures the proportion of coastal vegetation (wetlands, mangroves, and dunes), and reaches very high values in most municipalities.
Coastal Adaptation Capacity Subindex
The capacity of adaptation to the effects of climate change of the country’s coastal
municipalities was estimated as a measure of institutional governance. The basic
premise was that a coastal municipality has a better capacity to adapt if it has enough
planning policy instruments for the attention of emergencies caused by the effects
of climate change. At the municipal level, four indicators to estimate this subindex
are: municipal risk atlas, action plans for the effects of climate change, municipal
research and planning institutes, and environmental protection instruments like protected areas.
The presence of a municipal risk atlas is an indicator that reflects the existence of
an official instrument generated by the Mexican government (SEGOB 2019) to provide local knowledge about exposure to events and the sensitivity of the population
to them, which is the basis for adaptation. The Mexican government also has a
program to develop municipal actions for the effects of climate change (SEDESOL
2012). This indicator reflects a step further in the capacity of the municipalities to
adapt. There is an association of organisms or institutes for the integral planning of
municipalities committed to the comprehensive development planning that promotes the collection of information in long-term planning to give continuity to plans
and projects, and to favor citizen participation through public policies having an
effect on the local and regional culture towards sustainability (AMIMP 2003).
Therefore, we selected the presence of such planning institutes as an indicator
reflecting the capacity of the municipality to carry out planning tasks and establish
continuity in the processes with a vision of sustainable development, elements conducive to an adaptation to the impacts of climate change.
The values of these three indicators were scored as presence or absence (risk
atlas, climate change actions plan, and planning institutes), since we could not find
performance evaluations of such instruments for each municipality at the national
scale. Another indicator was added, the indicator of protected areas, defined as the
ratio of protected areas recognized by the National Commission of Natural Protected
17 Vulnerability to the Effects of Climate Change: Future Aridness and Present…