73
Which predictions turn out to be true, time will tell, but in light of the catastrophic consequences of famine and resource wars, we had best focus serious
attention on this development challenge before it is too late. We have already spent
50 years of our lead time since the warning issued by The Population Bomb… is it
ticking? Development in the Twenty-first century takes on a new urgency because
we may be in a race to avoid the Malthusian Trap.
With a balanced view of the legacy of Malthus in mind, we can consider the
growth of the human population from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7.4 billion in 2015, and
its projected growth to 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.4 billion in 2100. Figure 3.1 shows
population aggregated in three categories:
• More developed countries include the nations of Europe, Northern America,
Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.
• Less developed countries are those in all regions of Africa, Asia (except Japan),
Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.
• Least developed countries (LDCs) defined as “low-income countries confronting severe structural impediments to sustainable development. They are highly
vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks and have low levels of human
assets.” In 2018, 47 nations were listed as LDCs: 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 4 in
Oceania, and one in Latin America and the Caribbean. Nations are evaluated
every 3 years and may be moved from the LDC list.
It is no less important for being well-known that the nations with the least capacity
to meet the food, energy, and water needs of their citizens also possess the highest
Fig. 3.1 World population estimates (1950–2015) and medium-variant projection (2015–2080).
(Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2017.
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. New York: United Nations)
3 Development
Which predictions turn out to be true, time will tell, but in light of the catastrophic consequences of famine and resource wars, we had best focus serious
attention on this development challenge before it is too late. We have already spent
50 years of our lead time since the warning issued by The Population Bomb… is it
ticking? Development in the Twenty-first century takes on a new urgency because
we may be in a race to avoid the Malthusian Trap.
With a balanced view of the legacy of Malthus in mind, we can consider the
growth of the human population from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7.4 billion in 2015, and
its projected growth to 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.4 billion in 2100. Figure 3.1 shows
population aggregated in three categories:
• More developed countries include the nations of Europe, Northern America,
Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.
• Less developed countries are those in all regions of Africa, Asia (except Japan),
Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.
• Least developed countries (LDCs) defined as “low-income countries confronting severe structural impediments to sustainable development. They are highly
vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks and have low levels of human
assets.” In 2018, 47 nations were listed as LDCs: 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 4 in
Oceania, and one in Latin America and the Caribbean. Nations are evaluated
every 3 years and may be moved from the LDC list.
It is no less important for being well-known that the nations with the least capacity
to meet the food, energy, and water needs of their citizens also possess the highest
Fig. 3.1 World population estimates (1950–2015) and medium-variant projection (2015–2080).
(Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2017.
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. New York: United Nations)
3 Development