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In his 2005 book, “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed,” Jared
Diamond provided a collection of historical examples of how many past human
societies had faced of resource constraints with catastrophic outcomes. These were
isolated and smaller regional societies prior to the creation of the globally connected
societies of the current time.
Ehrlich (Ehrlich 1968; Ehrlich and Ehrlich 2009) provides the most notable
modern interpretation of Malthus. Ehrlich (1968) famously predicted widespread
famine and violence due to the “Population Bomb” of the 1970s. A revisitation of
the “Population Bomb” in 2009 concludes that the predicted famines and resource
wars did occur, albeit at a lower intensity than expected due primarily to the Green
Revolution, to declining birthrates in the rich world, and to massive and unsustainable groundwater mining to support expanded irrigated agriculture in arid regions.
The same revision concludes that the worst Malthusian impacts have merely been
postponed, not avoided, because the global population will soon triple from the
1968 baseline, demand for land-intensive meat continues to rise, climate change
will erode yield and productivity gains, and groundwater will run out.
The laws of economics suggest that resource scarcity and rising real prices for
FEW commodities (along with other commodities) are harbingers of a Malthusian
crisis and an ecological and economic collapse. By contrast, successful development policies and sustainable growth should yield steadily declining real prices for
commodities, as an accumulated wealth of infrastructure, policy, efficiencies, supply chains, and knowledge steadily reduces FEW scarcities and frees up those
resources for higher pursuits. The Simon-Ehrlich Wager in 1980 was a bet between
business professor Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich, chancing whether the real price
of copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten (five nonrenewable mined metals,
not FEW resources) would rise or fall. Prices fell on all five commodities over the
next decade. More significantly, the market prices of food and energy have fallen in
the USA since 1980, both in real terms and as a share of the average household’s
living expenses. The price of water has remained relatively constant. However,
water is not a market good in most cases. Further, water infrastructure is aging and
requires significant investment in many locations. Is sustainable FEW development
occurring in the USA? Will it in the future?
Human conflict is thought to be a symptom of the Malthusian Trap, both because
it leads to resource scarcity relative to the human population and because growing
human populations are known to be politically and socially volatile. The median
age of a society’s population is an extremely effective predictor of civil war and
revolutionary political activity. A “youth bulge” in the demographics yields a high
likelihood of armed conflict, genocide, starvation, and collapse of democratic institutions, whereas demographically balanced populations (balanced age distribution
and stable population) are likely to experience peace, economic growth, and transitions to stronger democratic institutions. Wealthier societies tend to transition
toward lower birthrates and balanced age demographics. Will large, volatile,
young, rapidly growing, low-development nations and regions increasingly
threaten the security and prosperity of their stable and wealthy neighbors—and
themselves—in the Twenty- first century? The present immigration crisis in Europe
and the USA suggests that this trend is already underway.
P. Saundry and B. L. Ruddell
In his 2005 book, “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed,” Jared
Diamond provided a collection of historical examples of how many past human
societies had faced of resource constraints with catastrophic outcomes. These were
isolated and smaller regional societies prior to the creation of the globally connected
societies of the current time.
Ehrlich (Ehrlich 1968; Ehrlich and Ehrlich 2009) provides the most notable
modern interpretation of Malthus. Ehrlich (1968) famously predicted widespread
famine and violence due to the “Population Bomb” of the 1970s. A revisitation of
the “Population Bomb” in 2009 concludes that the predicted famines and resource
wars did occur, albeit at a lower intensity than expected due primarily to the Green
Revolution, to declining birthrates in the rich world, and to massive and unsustainable groundwater mining to support expanded irrigated agriculture in arid regions.
The same revision concludes that the worst Malthusian impacts have merely been
postponed, not avoided, because the global population will soon triple from the
1968 baseline, demand for land-intensive meat continues to rise, climate change
will erode yield and productivity gains, and groundwater will run out.
The laws of economics suggest that resource scarcity and rising real prices for
FEW commodities (along with other commodities) are harbingers of a Malthusian
crisis and an ecological and economic collapse. By contrast, successful development policies and sustainable growth should yield steadily declining real prices for
commodities, as an accumulated wealth of infrastructure, policy, efficiencies, supply chains, and knowledge steadily reduces FEW scarcities and frees up those
resources for higher pursuits. The Simon-Ehrlich Wager in 1980 was a bet between
business professor Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich, chancing whether the real price
of copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten (five nonrenewable mined metals,
not FEW resources) would rise or fall. Prices fell on all five commodities over the
next decade. More significantly, the market prices of food and energy have fallen in
the USA since 1980, both in real terms and as a share of the average household’s
living expenses. The price of water has remained relatively constant. However,
water is not a market good in most cases. Further, water infrastructure is aging and
requires significant investment in many locations. Is sustainable FEW development
occurring in the USA? Will it in the future?
Human conflict is thought to be a symptom of the Malthusian Trap, both because
it leads to resource scarcity relative to the human population and because growing
human populations are known to be politically and socially volatile. The median
age of a society’s population is an extremely effective predictor of civil war and
revolutionary political activity. A “youth bulge” in the demographics yields a high
likelihood of armed conflict, genocide, starvation, and collapse of democratic institutions, whereas demographically balanced populations (balanced age distribution
and stable population) are likely to experience peace, economic growth, and transitions to stronger democratic institutions. Wealthier societies tend to transition
toward lower birthrates and balanced age demographics. Will large, volatile,
young, rapidly growing, low-development nations and regions increasingly
threaten the security and prosperity of their stable and wealthy neighbors—and
themselves—in the Twenty- first century? The present immigration crisis in Europe
and the USA suggests that this trend is already underway.
P. Saundry and B. L. Ruddell