319
This is important for understanding whether current development is sustainable, and for
exploring possible alternative development scenarios and the kinds of technology
improvements that might significantly change development trajectories.
(IAEA 2009).
The CLEW tool launched significant modeling work on country-level FEW integration studies in the context of climate change (Bazilian 2011) which continues
(UN DESA 2018).
Key Points
• Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are intensifying the earth’s natural
greenhouse effect with significant impacting of all aspects of human societies,
including FEW systems in a manner that is largely negative and necessitates
adaptation to the consequences on new climate regimes.
• Communication of scientific certainty and risk is difficult. Many lessons can be
learned from the approach developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) about communicating these critical concepts.
• Mitigation of climate change falls heavily on energy systems because approximately two-thirds of anthropogenic GHG emissions are the result of burning
fossil fuels for energy.
• Mitigation of climate change also falls of food systems because nearly a quarter
of anthropogenic GHG emissions are the result of agriculture, deforestation, and
other land use changes.
• Climate change is profoundly impacting water systems, which also contribute to
GHG emissions when used to absorb and move biological waste.
• While many climate mitigation strategies are focused on a single sector, especially energy and agriculture, integrate FEW systems can be far more effective
where the three systems have inherently strong interactions; compete for ecosystem services, infrastructure, or economic resources; or result in conflicts between
communities.
• Advances in climate modeling over recent decades have resulted in the integration of FEW systems in many ways.
Discussion Points and Exercises
1. Describe three direct, or “first-order” interactions and three higher order “cascading” impacts of human demographics on food, energy, and water systems.
2. Describe three direct, or “first-order” interactions and three higher order “cascading” impacts of international or national governance on food, energy, and
water systems.
3. Describe three direct, or “first-order” interactions and three higher order “cascading” impacts of ecosystem degradation on food, energy, and water systems.
4. Describe three direct, or “first-order” interactions and three higher order “cascading” impacts of hard infrastructure on food, energy, and water systems.
5. Use the Kaya Identity as a model for similar equations applicable to externalities
(one for each) related to (a) food, (b) energy, and (c) water. Describe the strength
and weaknesses or each new identity.
11 Climate Change
This is important for understanding whether current development is sustainable, and for
exploring possible alternative development scenarios and the kinds of technology
improvements that might significantly change development trajectories.
(IAEA 2009).
The CLEW tool launched significant modeling work on country-level FEW integration studies in the context of climate change (Bazilian 2011) which continues
(UN DESA 2018).
Key Points
• Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are intensifying the earth’s natural
greenhouse effect with significant impacting of all aspects of human societies,
including FEW systems in a manner that is largely negative and necessitates
adaptation to the consequences on new climate regimes.
• Communication of scientific certainty and risk is difficult. Many lessons can be
learned from the approach developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) about communicating these critical concepts.
• Mitigation of climate change falls heavily on energy systems because approximately two-thirds of anthropogenic GHG emissions are the result of burning
fossil fuels for energy.
• Mitigation of climate change also falls of food systems because nearly a quarter
of anthropogenic GHG emissions are the result of agriculture, deforestation, and
other land use changes.
• Climate change is profoundly impacting water systems, which also contribute to
GHG emissions when used to absorb and move biological waste.
• While many climate mitigation strategies are focused on a single sector, especially energy and agriculture, integrate FEW systems can be far more effective
where the three systems have inherently strong interactions; compete for ecosystem services, infrastructure, or economic resources; or result in conflicts between
communities.
• Advances in climate modeling over recent decades have resulted in the integration of FEW systems in many ways.
Discussion Points and Exercises
1. Describe three direct, or “first-order” interactions and three higher order “cascading” impacts of human demographics on food, energy, and water systems.
2. Describe three direct, or “first-order” interactions and three higher order “cascading” impacts of international or national governance on food, energy, and
water systems.
3. Describe three direct, or “first-order” interactions and three higher order “cascading” impacts of ecosystem degradation on food, energy, and water systems.
4. Describe three direct, or “first-order” interactions and three higher order “cascading” impacts of hard infrastructure on food, energy, and water systems.
5. Use the Kaya Identity as a model for similar equations applicable to externalities
(one for each) related to (a) food, (b) energy, and (c) water. Describe the strength
and weaknesses or each new identity.
11 Climate Change