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11.6 Modeling
The modeling of FEW systems is addressed in depth in Chap. 15. Here we explore
some fundamentals of climate modeling, which have led to the integration of FEW
systems with climate.
Climate models simulate the main components of the climate system. These
include the atmosphere, but also incoming solar radiation; absorbed and reemitted
radiation; the water cycle and other geochemical cycles; the oceans, the cryosphere,
and the biosphere; and interactions between these and other components.
Climate models at the global scale are called General Circulation Models
(GCMs) and represent the climate by a three-dimensional grid composed of cells
defined by vertical layers and horizontal elements. The number and thickness of
layers above and below the surface of the earth are defined within each GCM
according to its scientific objective. Sometimes larger cells are preferred for ease of
computation while sometimes smaller cells are preferred to allow more careful consideration of small-scale factors.
Under the Millennium Development Goals (Sect.3.5), GHG emissions were recognized under Goal 7, “to ensure environmental sustainability.” This led to many
efforts to assess linkages between climate, land, energy, and water (CLEW) in the
context of sustainable development. A climate, land, energy, and water (CLEW)
modeling framework was developed and launched in 2009 by several agencies
within the United Nations system (see Sect. 6.2.2). CLEW models aimed to map
important interactions between food, energy, and water systems in the context of
climate change. Further:
In addition to incorporating such a mapping and quantification of key relationships, the tool
should be designed for use in the following applications.
• Decision making: A well-formulated integrated CLEW tool would help decision and
policymakers assess options in terms of their likely effects on the broad CLEW system.
The tool should be able to transparently evaluate the trade-offs reflected in different
options.
• Policy assessments: Given limited resources, it is important for policymakers to ensure
that policies are as cost-effective as possible. If a single policy can achieve multiple
objectives, it may advance development more than policies focused separately on single
objectives. A CLEW tool should, therefore, provide a more complete, multisystem policy assessment.
• Facilitating policy harmonization and integration: there are instances of very contradictory policies, for example, electricity subsidies that accelerate aquifer depletion, which
in turn lead to greater electricity use and subsidy requirements. A CLEW tool would
help harmonize potentially conflicting policies.
• Technology assessments: Some technology options can affect multiple resources; for
example, nuclear power could reduce GHG emissions and reduce the exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets. Although it would use water for cooling, nuclear power can
generate electricity for seawater desalination. As with policies, a CLEW tool should
allow a more inclusive assessment of technological options.
• Scenario development: Another goal is to elaborate consistently on scenarios of possible
socio-economic development trajectories with the purpose of identifying future development opportunities as well as understanding the implications of different policies.
P. Saundry
11.6 Modeling
The modeling of FEW systems is addressed in depth in Chap. 15. Here we explore
some fundamentals of climate modeling, which have led to the integration of FEW
systems with climate.
Climate models simulate the main components of the climate system. These
include the atmosphere, but also incoming solar radiation; absorbed and reemitted
radiation; the water cycle and other geochemical cycles; the oceans, the cryosphere,
and the biosphere; and interactions between these and other components.
Climate models at the global scale are called General Circulation Models
(GCMs) and represent the climate by a three-dimensional grid composed of cells
defined by vertical layers and horizontal elements. The number and thickness of
layers above and below the surface of the earth are defined within each GCM
according to its scientific objective. Sometimes larger cells are preferred for ease of
computation while sometimes smaller cells are preferred to allow more careful consideration of small-scale factors.
Under the Millennium Development Goals (Sect.3.5), GHG emissions were recognized under Goal 7, “to ensure environmental sustainability.” This led to many
efforts to assess linkages between climate, land, energy, and water (CLEW) in the
context of sustainable development. A climate, land, energy, and water (CLEW)
modeling framework was developed and launched in 2009 by several agencies
within the United Nations system (see Sect. 6.2.2). CLEW models aimed to map
important interactions between food, energy, and water systems in the context of
climate change. Further:
In addition to incorporating such a mapping and quantification of key relationships, the tool
should be designed for use in the following applications.
• Decision making: A well-formulated integrated CLEW tool would help decision and
policymakers assess options in terms of their likely effects on the broad CLEW system.
The tool should be able to transparently evaluate the trade-offs reflected in different
options.
• Policy assessments: Given limited resources, it is important for policymakers to ensure
that policies are as cost-effective as possible. If a single policy can achieve multiple
objectives, it may advance development more than policies focused separately on single
objectives. A CLEW tool should, therefore, provide a more complete, multisystem policy assessment.
• Facilitating policy harmonization and integration: there are instances of very contradictory policies, for example, electricity subsidies that accelerate aquifer depletion, which
in turn lead to greater electricity use and subsidy requirements. A CLEW tool would
help harmonize potentially conflicting policies.
• Technology assessments: Some technology options can affect multiple resources; for
example, nuclear power could reduce GHG emissions and reduce the exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets. Although it would use water for cooling, nuclear power can
generate electricity for seawater desalination. As with policies, a CLEW tool should
allow a more inclusive assessment of technological options.
• Scenario development: Another goal is to elaborate consistently on scenarios of possible
socio-economic development trajectories with the purpose of identifying future development opportunities as well as understanding the implications of different policies.
P. Saundry