190
climate system belongs to the chaotic system
type, i.e. its behaviour cannot be described by
deterministic equations. The most typical character of such systems is non-linear and nonperiodical behaviour. Figure 4.83 illustrates it
well enough with an irregularly “jumping” temperature curve showing clearly, at the same time,
long-term tendencies (major warming and cooling). Curves in Fig. 4.83 were drawn based on the
analysis of air inclusions in ice cores from
Antarctica. Modern research methods (chemical
analyses, isotope measurements) enabled the
analysis of the gas composition of air samples
taken from several thousand metres deep with ice
core drilling (more than 2000 metres in this case).
Based on oxygen isotope measurements temperatures typical at the time of the formation of the
ice layer were also determined. Temperature
changes and trends in the concentration of carbon
dioxide and methane over the last 160,000 years
can be seen in Fig. 4.83.
Milutin Milanković, a Croatian astronomer
studied the revolution of Earth around the Sun and
changes in the properties of its orbit in the
Pleistocene (eccentricity, precession, changes in
the axial tilt). He estimated the amount of radiation
reaching Earth and the obtained data were compared to the timing of glacial and interglacial periods (Milanković 1930). Correlation was found
between data obtained on the basis of astronomical
calculations the climate changes in the Pleistocene.
This correlation, however, was not assessed accurately mathematically at his time because temperature changes over the Pleistocene were not possible
to measure accurately with the methods at that
time. It is known today that correlation between
the two data sets cannot be very close because the
global climate system is controlled by a number of
factors apart from the amount of energy input.
Therefore changes in the global climate—as will
be seen later—are chaotic and shift frequently in
time. In the long term, however, the climate influencing role of energy input succeeds.
Close correlation for the three curves
(Fig. 4.83) is spectacular. Going into details,
however, periods can be found when temporarily
increasing CO 2 concentrations were measured in
a lengthy cooling period (e.g. 120,000 years ago).
Incalculable behaviour is a typical character of
chaotic systems in which lasting and one-way
effects (e.g. current permanent increase of the
atmospheric concentration of GHGs and its consequences) come across only in the long term.
The definition of climate systems highlights
also that changes in significant factors other than
GHGs could also modify climate. For example,
halt of the great oceanic conveyor belt or if its
structure is modified it would make a major
impact on climate. No wonder, that experts at
IPCC use the terms “probably” and “very likely”
in the reports. Most often absolute certainties
cannot be stated regarding climate change but
increasing probabilities seem to be doubtless.
NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory at National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) has created several
ocean-atmosphere coupled models to predict
how GHG emissions following different population, economic, and energy-use projections may
affect the planet.
Table 4.19 Projected change in global mean surface temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late
twenty-first century, relative to the 1986–2005 period (Source: IPCC 2015)
Scenario 2046–2065 2046–2065
2081–2100 2081–2100
Mean
Likely range Mean
Likely range
Global mean surface temperature change (°C) RCP 2.6 1.0
0.4–1.6
1.0
0.3–1.7
Global mean surface temperature change (°C) RCP 4.5 1.4
0.9–2.0
1.8
1.1–2.6
Global mean surface temperature change (°C) RCP 6.0 1.3
0.8–1.8
2.2
1.4–3.1
Global mean surface temperature change (°C) RCP 8.5 2.0
1.4–2.6
3.7
2.6–4.8
Global mean sea level rise (m)
RCP 2.6 0.24
0.17–0.32
0.40
0.26–0.55
Global mean sea level rise (m)
RCP 4.5 0.26
0.19–0.33
0.47
0.32–0.63
Global mean sea level rise (m)
RCP 6.0 0.25
0.18–0.32
0.48
0.33–0.63
Global mean sea level rise (m)
RCP 8.5 0.30
0.22–0.38
0.63
0.45–0.82
4 Changes on Earth as a Result of Interaction Between the Society and Nature
climate system belongs to the chaotic system
type, i.e. its behaviour cannot be described by
deterministic equations. The most typical character of such systems is non-linear and nonperiodical behaviour. Figure 4.83 illustrates it
well enough with an irregularly “jumping” temperature curve showing clearly, at the same time,
long-term tendencies (major warming and cooling). Curves in Fig. 4.83 were drawn based on the
analysis of air inclusions in ice cores from
Antarctica. Modern research methods (chemical
analyses, isotope measurements) enabled the
analysis of the gas composition of air samples
taken from several thousand metres deep with ice
core drilling (more than 2000 metres in this case).
Based on oxygen isotope measurements temperatures typical at the time of the formation of the
ice layer were also determined. Temperature
changes and trends in the concentration of carbon
dioxide and methane over the last 160,000 years
can be seen in Fig. 4.83.
Milutin Milanković, a Croatian astronomer
studied the revolution of Earth around the Sun and
changes in the properties of its orbit in the
Pleistocene (eccentricity, precession, changes in
the axial tilt). He estimated the amount of radiation
reaching Earth and the obtained data were compared to the timing of glacial and interglacial periods (Milanković 1930). Correlation was found
between data obtained on the basis of astronomical
calculations the climate changes in the Pleistocene.
This correlation, however, was not assessed accurately mathematically at his time because temperature changes over the Pleistocene were not possible
to measure accurately with the methods at that
time. It is known today that correlation between
the two data sets cannot be very close because the
global climate system is controlled by a number of
factors apart from the amount of energy input.
Therefore changes in the global climate—as will
be seen later—are chaotic and shift frequently in
time. In the long term, however, the climate influencing role of energy input succeeds.
Close correlation for the three curves
(Fig. 4.83) is spectacular. Going into details,
however, periods can be found when temporarily
increasing CO 2 concentrations were measured in
a lengthy cooling period (e.g. 120,000 years ago).
Incalculable behaviour is a typical character of
chaotic systems in which lasting and one-way
effects (e.g. current permanent increase of the
atmospheric concentration of GHGs and its consequences) come across only in the long term.
The definition of climate systems highlights
also that changes in significant factors other than
GHGs could also modify climate. For example,
halt of the great oceanic conveyor belt or if its
structure is modified it would make a major
impact on climate. No wonder, that experts at
IPCC use the terms “probably” and “very likely”
in the reports. Most often absolute certainties
cannot be stated regarding climate change but
increasing probabilities seem to be doubtless.
NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory at National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) has created several
ocean-atmosphere coupled models to predict
how GHG emissions following different population, economic, and energy-use projections may
affect the planet.
Table 4.19 Projected change in global mean surface temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late
twenty-first century, relative to the 1986–2005 period (Source: IPCC 2015)
Scenario 2046–2065 2046–2065
2081–2100 2081–2100
Mean
Likely range Mean
Likely range
Global mean surface temperature change (°C) RCP 2.6 1.0
0.4–1.6
1.0
0.3–1.7
Global mean surface temperature change (°C) RCP 4.5 1.4
0.9–2.0
1.8
1.1–2.6
Global mean surface temperature change (°C) RCP 6.0 1.3
0.8–1.8
2.2
1.4–3.1
Global mean surface temperature change (°C) RCP 8.5 2.0
1.4–2.6
3.7
2.6–4.8
Global mean sea level rise (m)
RCP 2.6 0.24
0.17–0.32
0.40
0.26–0.55
Global mean sea level rise (m)
RCP 4.5 0.26
0.19–0.33
0.47
0.32–0.63
Global mean sea level rise (m)
RCP 6.0 0.25
0.18–0.32
0.48
0.33–0.63
Global mean sea level rise (m)
RCP 8.5 0.30
0.22–0.38
0.63
0.45–0.82
4 Changes on Earth as a Result of Interaction Between the Society and Nature