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crops, the highest losses in the cultivated area will occur for tomato, namely 20%
compared to its counterpart value in 2015. The overall losses in the national level
will reach 8 and 16% compared to its counterpart value in 2015 in the winter and
summer crops, respectively.
7.7.3 Effect of Climate Change on the Suitability of Cultivated
Area to a Certain Crop
Under climate change, the expected rise in the temperature could limit suitability of
a certain area to grow a certain crop, in which very low productivity per hectare will
result. Thus, under these circumstances, it will be uneconomical to cultivate that
crop in this area. Mahmoud et al. (2016) stated that the cutoff temperature (a temperature value under which plant growth ceases) for rice is 35 °C. They compared
between the expected maximum temperature under climate change in 2040 and the
cutoff temperature in the cultivated zone of rice in the Nile Delta of Egypt in eight
governorates. A summary of their results presented in Table 7.8.
During the growing season of rice in 2040, no yield losses will occur in Alexandria
and Demiatte, where both located on the Mediterranean Sea and maximum temperature will not rise above 35 °C. At Kafr El-Sheikh and El-Dakahlia, a rise above
35 °C will occur for few days. Maximum temperature will rise above 40 °C for few
days, at El-Behira and El-Gharbia. Governorates south of the above governorates
will experience more heat stress as a result of rise in maximum temperature above
40 °C for more days. Thus, the above results implied that climate change risk on rice
production will increase in 2040, as a result of heat stress, which will affect physiological process in the growing plants and results in losses in rice productivity and
might also result in reduction in the cultivated zone by stopping its cultivation in
Sharkia and Kalubia governorates.
Similar study was done for sugarcane by Taha et al. (2016), where they assessed
the suitability of south Egypt governorates for sugarcane cultivation in 2040. Cutoff
Table 7.8 Rise above cutoff temperature during rice growing season under climate change in
2040
Governorate
Early season
Middle season
Late season
Alexandria
Below 35 °C
Below 35 °C
Below 35 °C
Demiatte
Below 35 °C
Below 35 °C
Below 35 °C
Kafr El-Sheikh Few days above 35 °C
Few days above 35 °C
Below 35 °C
El-Dakahlia
Few days above 35 °C
Few days above 35 °C
Below 35 °C
El-Behira
Few days above 40 °C
Few days above 40 °C
Few days above 40 °C
El-Gharbia
Few days above 40 °C
Few days above 40 °C
Few days above 40 °C
El-Sharkia
More days above 40 °C More days above 40 °C More days above 40 °C
El-Kalubia
More days above 40 °C More days above 40 °C More days above 40 °C
Summarized by the authors from Mahmoud et al. (2016)
7 Climate Change Assessment in Egypt: A Review
crops, the highest losses in the cultivated area will occur for tomato, namely 20%
compared to its counterpart value in 2015. The overall losses in the national level
will reach 8 and 16% compared to its counterpart value in 2015 in the winter and
summer crops, respectively.
7.7.3 Effect of Climate Change on the Suitability of Cultivated
Area to a Certain Crop
Under climate change, the expected rise in the temperature could limit suitability of
a certain area to grow a certain crop, in which very low productivity per hectare will
result. Thus, under these circumstances, it will be uneconomical to cultivate that
crop in this area. Mahmoud et al. (2016) stated that the cutoff temperature (a temperature value under which plant growth ceases) for rice is 35 °C. They compared
between the expected maximum temperature under climate change in 2040 and the
cutoff temperature in the cultivated zone of rice in the Nile Delta of Egypt in eight
governorates. A summary of their results presented in Table 7.8.
During the growing season of rice in 2040, no yield losses will occur in Alexandria
and Demiatte, where both located on the Mediterranean Sea and maximum temperature will not rise above 35 °C. At Kafr El-Sheikh and El-Dakahlia, a rise above
35 °C will occur for few days. Maximum temperature will rise above 40 °C for few
days, at El-Behira and El-Gharbia. Governorates south of the above governorates
will experience more heat stress as a result of rise in maximum temperature above
40 °C for more days. Thus, the above results implied that climate change risk on rice
production will increase in 2040, as a result of heat stress, which will affect physiological process in the growing plants and results in losses in rice productivity and
might also result in reduction in the cultivated zone by stopping its cultivation in
Sharkia and Kalubia governorates.
Similar study was done for sugarcane by Taha et al. (2016), where they assessed
the suitability of south Egypt governorates for sugarcane cultivation in 2040. Cutoff
Table 7.8 Rise above cutoff temperature during rice growing season under climate change in
2040
Governorate
Early season
Middle season
Late season
Alexandria
Below 35 °C
Below 35 °C
Below 35 °C
Demiatte
Below 35 °C
Below 35 °C
Below 35 °C
Kafr El-Sheikh Few days above 35 °C
Few days above 35 °C
Below 35 °C
El-Dakahlia
Few days above 35 °C
Few days above 35 °C
Below 35 °C
El-Behira
Few days above 40 °C
Few days above 40 °C
Few days above 40 °C
El-Gharbia
Few days above 40 °C
Few days above 40 °C
Few days above 40 °C
El-Sharkia
More days above 40 °C More days above 40 °C More days above 40 °C
El-Kalubia
More days above 40 °C More days above 40 °C More days above 40 °C
Summarized by the authors from Mahmoud et al. (2016)
7 Climate Change Assessment in Egypt: A Review