45
2.6.1 Regional TFP Growth Rates Raise Concerns
Rates of productivity growth vary greatly by region, as can be seen by comparing
food demand indexes against projected agricultural output from TFP growth for the
period 2000 to 2030. Figure 2.7 compares the percentage of the estimated food
demand for 2030 that can be met with projected TFP growth for six world regions
and China.
At current rates of TFP growth, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will meet only 8% of
its food demand through productivity (Fig. 2.7). Trade plays a key role in closing
Africa’s food demand gap; 50% of its vegetable oils, 35% of its poultry meat, and
23% of its sugar requirements are imported (OECD/FAO 2016). Without significant
increases in agricultural productivity growth, African countries will not meet their
SDG targets for reducing hunger, malnutrition, and poverty and will rely more on
trade to meet growing demand and most likely will continue to expand land area
under cultivation to grow more food, threatening wildlife habitat and releasing soil
carbon from forest conversion to cropland. In addition, an increasing financial burden will be imposed on them in order to increase their imports of raw food materials
which oftentimes are paid for in foreign currencies.
With 60% of the world’s population and considerable economic diversity, the
Asian regions (South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, including China) exhibit
varying degrees of capacity to meet food demand through productivity.
China has prioritized agricultural development and food security and has
achieved great progress in reducing hunger. Yet with little arable land and growing
affluence, China will require more investments in productivity and more trade to
meet future demand.
Fig. 2.6 The Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Index™ (2018). (Source: Food Demand
Index is from Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) (2018); Agricultural Output from TFP Growth is
from USDA Economic Research Service (2018))
2 Productivity in Agriculture for a Sustainable Future
2.6.1 Regional TFP Growth Rates Raise Concerns
Rates of productivity growth vary greatly by region, as can be seen by comparing
food demand indexes against projected agricultural output from TFP growth for the
period 2000 to 2030. Figure 2.7 compares the percentage of the estimated food
demand for 2030 that can be met with projected TFP growth for six world regions
and China.
At current rates of TFP growth, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will meet only 8% of
its food demand through productivity (Fig. 2.7). Trade plays a key role in closing
Africa’s food demand gap; 50% of its vegetable oils, 35% of its poultry meat, and
23% of its sugar requirements are imported (OECD/FAO 2016). Without significant
increases in agricultural productivity growth, African countries will not meet their
SDG targets for reducing hunger, malnutrition, and poverty and will rely more on
trade to meet growing demand and most likely will continue to expand land area
under cultivation to grow more food, threatening wildlife habitat and releasing soil
carbon from forest conversion to cropland. In addition, an increasing financial burden will be imposed on them in order to increase their imports of raw food materials
which oftentimes are paid for in foreign currencies.
With 60% of the world’s population and considerable economic diversity, the
Asian regions (South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, including China) exhibit
varying degrees of capacity to meet food demand through productivity.
China has prioritized agricultural development and food security and has
achieved great progress in reducing hunger. Yet with little arable land and growing
affluence, China will require more investments in productivity and more trade to
meet future demand.
Fig. 2.6 The Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Index™ (2018). (Source: Food Demand
Index is from Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) (2018); Agricultural Output from TFP Growth is
from USDA Economic Research Service (2018))
2 Productivity in Agriculture for a Sustainable Future