44
2.6 Tracking Productivity: The GAP Index™
The 2018 Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Index™ reveals that for the fifth
straight year global agricultural productivity growth (TFP) is not accelerating fast
enough to sustainably meet the food, feed, fiber, and biofuel needs of nearly 10 billion people in 2050.
In 2010, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) calculated that global agricultural
productivity (as measured by TFP) must grow by an average rate of at least 1.75%
annually to double all agricultural output through productivity growth by 2050. The
US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) estimates that since 2010, TFP growth globally has been rising by an average annual
rate of only 1.51% (Fig. 2.6).
The GAP Index™ was created in collaboration with Dr. Keith Fuglie of USDA
Economic Research Service. Dr. Fuglie provides annual updates of TFP data for the
GAP Report.
The average annual TFP growth rate in low-income countries is particularly troubling. Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2) calls for doubling productivity for
small-scale farmers in the low-income countries. The current annual rate of TFP
growth in low-income countries is only 0.96%, down from 1.5% 3 years ago. This
is well below the TFP growth rates needed to achieve the SDG 2 target of doubling
productivity for small-scale farmers in the lowest-income countries by 2030.
If this trend continues, farmers in low-income, food-deficit countries (where
population growth is rapidly rising) will use more land and water to increase their
output, straining a natural resource base already threatened by extreme weather
events and climate change. Many low-income countries will need to import food but
lack sufficient income to purchase enough to meet the needs of their citizens. Poor
urban households will bear the brunt of higher food prices in these countries, but
they will also impact low-income rural populations since they are net food buyers.
Some of the food demand will not be met, and millions of people will be debilitated
by hunger and malnutrition.
modities used in the production of biofuels – sugar, coarse grains, and oilseeds (von Lampe et al. 2014). (The OECD/FAO prediction of a decrease in
the rate of demand growth for food and agriculture products extends only to
2026, not to 2050.)
Most importantly, AgMIP points to the impact climate change will have on
the ability of agriculture to meet future demand. The ten models suggest that
climate change will generate higher prices for agricultural commodities in
general and particularly for crops (von Lampe et al. 2014). The impact of
climate change must be considered to avoid a downward bias in projected
supply estimates.
(continued)
A. Steensland and M. Zeigler
2.6 Tracking Productivity: The GAP Index™
The 2018 Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Index™ reveals that for the fifth
straight year global agricultural productivity growth (TFP) is not accelerating fast
enough to sustainably meet the food, feed, fiber, and biofuel needs of nearly 10 billion people in 2050.
In 2010, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) calculated that global agricultural
productivity (as measured by TFP) must grow by an average rate of at least 1.75%
annually to double all agricultural output through productivity growth by 2050. The
US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) estimates that since 2010, TFP growth globally has been rising by an average annual
rate of only 1.51% (Fig. 2.6).
The GAP Index™ was created in collaboration with Dr. Keith Fuglie of USDA
Economic Research Service. Dr. Fuglie provides annual updates of TFP data for the
GAP Report.
The average annual TFP growth rate in low-income countries is particularly troubling. Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2) calls for doubling productivity for
small-scale farmers in the low-income countries. The current annual rate of TFP
growth in low-income countries is only 0.96%, down from 1.5% 3 years ago. This
is well below the TFP growth rates needed to achieve the SDG 2 target of doubling
productivity for small-scale farmers in the lowest-income countries by 2030.
If this trend continues, farmers in low-income, food-deficit countries (where
population growth is rapidly rising) will use more land and water to increase their
output, straining a natural resource base already threatened by extreme weather
events and climate change. Many low-income countries will need to import food but
lack sufficient income to purchase enough to meet the needs of their citizens. Poor
urban households will bear the brunt of higher food prices in these countries, but
they will also impact low-income rural populations since they are net food buyers.
Some of the food demand will not be met, and millions of people will be debilitated
by hunger and malnutrition.
modities used in the production of biofuels – sugar, coarse grains, and oilseeds (von Lampe et al. 2014). (The OECD/FAO prediction of a decrease in
the rate of demand growth for food and agriculture products extends only to
2026, not to 2050.)
Most importantly, AgMIP points to the impact climate change will have on
the ability of agriculture to meet future demand. The ten models suggest that
climate change will generate higher prices for agricultural commodities in
general and particularly for crops (von Lampe et al. 2014). The impact of
climate change must be considered to avoid a downward bias in projected
supply estimates.
(continued)
A. Steensland and M. Zeigler