43
Fig. 2.5 Sources of growth in agricultural output: low-income countries, 1961–2015. *Depicts
data for the most recent ten-year period. **Depicts data for the most recent five-year period.
(Source: USDA Economic Research Service (2018))
Box 2.4 Doubling Agricultural Productivity Is the Right Goal
The projected slowdown in demand for food and agriculture products over the
next decade has prompted calls for a reduction in the agricultural output targets for 2050 (Hunter et al. 2017). Yet a large and growing body of sophisticated modeling by agricultural economists examining long-term scenarios for
agriculture, food, and the environment indicates that it may be too soon to
consider revising these goals downward.
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project
(AgMIP) is an international collaborative effort to improve agricultural economic models. AgMIP coordinates regional and global assessments of climate impacts and uses multiple scenarios for crop and livestock production
across differing geographies to explore the effects of uncertainty, data selection, and methodology on the models’ results.
AgMIP’s analysis of ten leading global multi-sectoral projection models
found that world agricultural production of crops and livestock between 2005
and 2050 will need to rise by between 60% and 111%, with demand growth
particularly strong for ruminant products (cows, sheep) as well as for com(continued)
2 Productivity in Agriculture for a Sustainable Future
Fig. 2.5 Sources of growth in agricultural output: low-income countries, 1961–2015. *Depicts
data for the most recent ten-year period. **Depicts data for the most recent five-year period.
(Source: USDA Economic Research Service (2018))
Box 2.4 Doubling Agricultural Productivity Is the Right Goal
The projected slowdown in demand for food and agriculture products over the
next decade has prompted calls for a reduction in the agricultural output targets for 2050 (Hunter et al. 2017). Yet a large and growing body of sophisticated modeling by agricultural economists examining long-term scenarios for
agriculture, food, and the environment indicates that it may be too soon to
consider revising these goals downward.
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project
(AgMIP) is an international collaborative effort to improve agricultural economic models. AgMIP coordinates regional and global assessments of climate impacts and uses multiple scenarios for crop and livestock production
across differing geographies to explore the effects of uncertainty, data selection, and methodology on the models’ results.
AgMIP’s analysis of ten leading global multi-sectoral projection models
found that world agricultural production of crops and livestock between 2005
and 2050 will need to rise by between 60% and 111%, with demand growth
particularly strong for ruminant products (cows, sheep) as well as for com(continued)
2 Productivity in Agriculture for a Sustainable Future