different phase. GODAE (2001) describes this
vision thus:
A global system of observations, communications, modelling and assimilation, that will
deliver regular, comprehensive information on
the state of the oceans, in a way that will promote and engender wide utility and availability
of this resource for maximum benefit to the
community.
To a large extent, GODAE is made possible
because of the scientific and technical advances
provided by WOCE. Even before WOCE, many
people had thought oceanography should be moving toward a more operational footing, just as in
meteorology. This did not happen for several reasons, including:
¥ the lack of needed global observations;
¥ the lack of suitable global ocean models, particularly with a capability to resolve the mesoscale;
¥ lack of ocean data assimilation know-how;
¥ lack of computational power to integrate global
models;
¥ lack of the necessary communications to enable
real-time exchange of data and products;
¥ the immaturity of the user community; and
¥ lack of investment.
By the late part of the 1990s, it became clear
that many of these obstacles were no longer insurmountable and that, indeed, there was a real
prospect in the near future to have available most
of the needed elements (Smith and Lefebvre,
1997). In short, it was apparent that global ocean
data assimilation/estimation on a routine basis was
feasible.
GODAE is the response to a demand for an efficient, integrated system for global ocean products,
provided regularly, and in real-time. The underlying rationale for GODAE as an international
experiment is that the vision above will not be realized serendipitously, or through individuals or individual nations. The needed capacity will arrive only
with a concerted effort to ensure, first, proper integration of the components, and second, the commitment to proving value and viability. The specific
objectives of GODAE are to (GODAE, 2001):
1 Apply state-of-the art ocean models and assimilation methods for short-range open-ocean
forecasts, for boundary conditions to extend
predictability of coastal and regional subsystems, and for initial conditions of climate forecast models.
2 Provide global ocean analyses for developing improved understanding of the oceans,
improved assessments of the predictability of
ocean systems, and as a basis for improving the
design and effectiveness of the global ocean
observing system.
The objectives are purposefully broad and have
the desirable balance between practical goals (forecasts, information for subsystems) and strategic
objectives (science, evolution of the observing
system).
What will GODAE deliver?
The anticipated outcomes of GODAE include:
¥ improved coastal, open ocean and climate forecasts;
¥ a more responsive, efficient and sustainable system for data assembly and distribution;
¥ an improved foundation for oceanic research
and enhanced partnerships between the operational and research communities; and
¥ an enhanced, but cost-effective and sustainable
ocean observing system.
On the basis of analysis of expected remote sensing and other observing capabilities, and on
expected improvements in modelling and data
assimilation, the period 2003–05 was designated
as the focus for an operational trial. On this time
scale it also seems feasible to attract the needed
material and intellectual investment.
The GODAE components
The essential building blocks of GODAE are
observational networks, models and estimation
tools. In the GODAE context, these elements are
inextricably linked, with obvious interdependencies. Remotely sensed data provide the only real
avenue to global data coverage (see Section 7.4.3).
Recent initiatives to develop a sustained global
ocean observing system offer the potential to satisfy GODAE data needs. GODAE attaches high
priority to global coverage and the complementarity between in-situ and remote sensing data. Argo
is a GODAE Pilot Project (Argo Science Team,
1998) and is a central element of the concept.
The Argo schedule follows that of GODAE and
7.4 Ocean and Climate Prediction – the WOCE Legacy
599
Smith
vision thus:
A global system of observations, communications, modelling and assimilation, that will
deliver regular, comprehensive information on
the state of the oceans, in a way that will promote and engender wide utility and availability
of this resource for maximum benefit to the
community.
To a large extent, GODAE is made possible
because of the scientific and technical advances
provided by WOCE. Even before WOCE, many
people had thought oceanography should be moving toward a more operational footing, just as in
meteorology. This did not happen for several reasons, including:
¥ the lack of needed global observations;
¥ the lack of suitable global ocean models, particularly with a capability to resolve the mesoscale;
¥ lack of ocean data assimilation know-how;
¥ lack of computational power to integrate global
models;
¥ lack of the necessary communications to enable
real-time exchange of data and products;
¥ the immaturity of the user community; and
¥ lack of investment.
By the late part of the 1990s, it became clear
that many of these obstacles were no longer insurmountable and that, indeed, there was a real
prospect in the near future to have available most
of the needed elements (Smith and Lefebvre,
1997). In short, it was apparent that global ocean
data assimilation/estimation on a routine basis was
feasible.
GODAE is the response to a demand for an efficient, integrated system for global ocean products,
provided regularly, and in real-time. The underlying rationale for GODAE as an international
experiment is that the vision above will not be realized serendipitously, or through individuals or individual nations. The needed capacity will arrive only
with a concerted effort to ensure, first, proper integration of the components, and second, the commitment to proving value and viability. The specific
objectives of GODAE are to (GODAE, 2001):
1 Apply state-of-the art ocean models and assimilation methods for short-range open-ocean
forecasts, for boundary conditions to extend
predictability of coastal and regional subsystems, and for initial conditions of climate forecast models.
2 Provide global ocean analyses for developing improved understanding of the oceans,
improved assessments of the predictability of
ocean systems, and as a basis for improving the
design and effectiveness of the global ocean
observing system.
The objectives are purposefully broad and have
the desirable balance between practical goals (forecasts, information for subsystems) and strategic
objectives (science, evolution of the observing
system).
What will GODAE deliver?
The anticipated outcomes of GODAE include:
¥ improved coastal, open ocean and climate forecasts;
¥ a more responsive, efficient and sustainable system for data assembly and distribution;
¥ an improved foundation for oceanic research
and enhanced partnerships between the operational and research communities; and
¥ an enhanced, but cost-effective and sustainable
ocean observing system.
On the basis of analysis of expected remote sensing and other observing capabilities, and on
expected improvements in modelling and data
assimilation, the period 2003–05 was designated
as the focus for an operational trial. On this time
scale it also seems feasible to attract the needed
material and intellectual investment.
The GODAE components
The essential building blocks of GODAE are
observational networks, models and estimation
tools. In the GODAE context, these elements are
inextricably linked, with obvious interdependencies. Remotely sensed data provide the only real
avenue to global data coverage (see Section 7.4.3).
Recent initiatives to develop a sustained global
ocean observing system offer the potential to satisfy GODAE data needs. GODAE attaches high
priority to global coverage and the complementarity between in-situ and remote sensing data. Argo
is a GODAE Pilot Project (Argo Science Team,
1998) and is a central element of the concept.
The Argo schedule follows that of GODAE and
7.4 Ocean and Climate Prediction – the WOCE Legacy
599
Smith