Figure 6c Potential
changes (%) in national
cereal yields for the 2080s
(compared to 1990) under
the four HadCM2
ensemble members
(GGa1-4) and the single
HadCM3 climate change
scenarios
additional people at risk of hunger by the 2080s. All BLS experiments allow the
world food system to respond to climate-induced supply shortfalls of cereals and
higher commodity prices through increases in production factors (cultivated
land, labour, and capital) and inputs such as fertilizer.
Regional effects. The global estimates presented above mask important
regional differences in impacts. For example, under the HadCM2 scenarios yield
increases at high and high mid-latitudes lead to production increases in these
regions, a trend that may be enhanced due to the greater adaptive capacity of
countries here. Both Canada and Europe are good examples of this. In contrast,
yield decreases at lower latitudes, and in particular in the arid and sub-humid
tropics, lead to production decreases and increases in the risk of hunger, effects
that may be exacerbated where adaptive capacity is lower than the global average.
Under the HadCM2 scenarios the largest negative changes occur in developing
regions, which on average varies between 93.5% and 916.5%, though the
extent of decreased production varies greatly by country depending on the
projected climate. Disparities in crop production between developed and
developing countries are estimated to increase. However, our results based on the
Climate Change, Global Food Supply and Risk of Hunger
127
changes (%) in national
cereal yields for the 2080s
(compared to 1990) under
the four HadCM2
ensemble members
(GGa1-4) and the single
HadCM3 climate change
scenarios
additional people at risk of hunger by the 2080s. All BLS experiments allow the
world food system to respond to climate-induced supply shortfalls of cereals and
higher commodity prices through increases in production factors (cultivated
land, labour, and capital) and inputs such as fertilizer.
Regional effects. The global estimates presented above mask important
regional differences in impacts. For example, under the HadCM2 scenarios yield
increases at high and high mid-latitudes lead to production increases in these
regions, a trend that may be enhanced due to the greater adaptive capacity of
countries here. Both Canada and Europe are good examples of this. In contrast,
yield decreases at lower latitudes, and in particular in the arid and sub-humid
tropics, lead to production decreases and increases in the risk of hunger, effects
that may be exacerbated where adaptive capacity is lower than the global average.
Under the HadCM2 scenarios the largest negative changes occur in developing
regions, which on average varies between 93.5% and 916.5%, though the
extent of decreased production varies greatly by country depending on the
projected climate. Disparities in crop production between developed and
developing countries are estimated to increase. However, our results based on the
Climate Change, Global Food Supply and Risk of Hunger
127