Figure 6b Potential
changes (%) in national
cereal yields for the 2050s
(compared to 1990) under
the four HadCM2
ensemble members
(GGa1-4) and the single
HadCM3 climate change
scenarios
generally able to feed itself in the next millennium. Only a small detrimental effect
is observed on cereal production, manifested as a shortfall on the reference
production level of around 100 Mt (92.1%) by the 2080s (<10 Mt depending on
which HadCM2 climate simulation is selected). In comparison, HadCM3
produces a greater disparity between the reference and climate change scenario —
a reduction of more than 160 Mt (about 94%) by the 2080s (Figure 7a).
Reduced production leads to increases in prices. Under the HadCM2 scenarios
cereal prices increase by as much as 17% (<4.5%) by the 2080s (Figure 7b). The
greater negative impacts on yields projected under HadCM3 are carried through
the economic system with prices estimated to increase by about 45% by the
2080s. In turn these production and price changes are likely to affect the number
of people with insufficient resources to purchase adequate amounts of food.
Estimations based upon dynamic simulations by the BLS show that the number
of people at risk of hunger increases, resulting in an estimated additional 90
million people in this condition due to climate change (above the reference case of
:250 million) by the 2080s (Figure 7c). The HadCM3 results are again more
extreme, falling outside the HadCM2 range with an estimated 125; million
M. Parry and M. Livermore
126
changes (%) in national
cereal yields for the 2050s
(compared to 1990) under
the four HadCM2
ensemble members
(GGa1-4) and the single
HadCM3 climate change
scenarios
generally able to feed itself in the next millennium. Only a small detrimental effect
is observed on cereal production, manifested as a shortfall on the reference
production level of around 100 Mt (92.1%) by the 2080s (<10 Mt depending on
which HadCM2 climate simulation is selected). In comparison, HadCM3
produces a greater disparity between the reference and climate change scenario —
a reduction of more than 160 Mt (about 94%) by the 2080s (Figure 7a).
Reduced production leads to increases in prices. Under the HadCM2 scenarios
cereal prices increase by as much as 17% (<4.5%) by the 2080s (Figure 7b). The
greater negative impacts on yields projected under HadCM3 are carried through
the economic system with prices estimated to increase by about 45% by the
2080s. In turn these production and price changes are likely to affect the number
of people with insufficient resources to purchase adequate amounts of food.
Estimations based upon dynamic simulations by the BLS show that the number
of people at risk of hunger increases, resulting in an estimated additional 90
million people in this condition due to climate change (above the reference case of
:250 million) by the 2080s (Figure 7c). The HadCM3 results are again more
extreme, falling outside the HadCM2 range with an estimated 125; million
M. Parry and M. Livermore
126