146
Systematic conservation planning: past, present and future
The Maputaland system involved identifying 44 land - cover types, 53 species and 14 ecological
processes as important conservation features, and mapping their distributions using satellite imagery
and expert opinion (Smith et al ., 2008 ). It also involved using data on the predicted spread of
subsistence agriculture as a measure of both threat and opportunity cost, together with data on
potential revenue from game ranching, which has key relevance for implementing the results (Knight
et al ., 2006 ).
The fi rst conservation assessment used the Marxan conservation planning software, which uses
a simulated annealing approach (Ball & Possingham, 2000 ). This involved:
1 dividing the region into a number of planning units;
2 assigning a cost to each planning unit based on its modelled risk of being cleared for
agriculture;
3 using Marxan to identify near - optimal portfolios of these units for meeting the targets, maintaining
connectivity and minimizing impacts on subsistence agriculture (Figure B6.2 b).
These initial outputs were then used to develop a conservation landscape plan that could boost
economic development through nature - based tourism and game ranching. The analysis identifi ed
4,291 km
2 of new core protected areas and 480 km
2 of land that would function as ecological linkages (Figure B6.2 c). The game ranching data were then used to estimate potential revenue from
this proposed expansion of the protected area system.
The results showed that these new areas could provide US$18.8 million per annum, thereby
helping to create jobs and reduce poverty. These results have already been used to guide South
Africa ’ s National Protected Area Expansion Strategy and the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund
initiative in the Maputaland – Pondoland – Albany hotspot, although more work is needed to ensure
that the system becomes part of day - to - day land use planning in all three countries.
6.4.2 Achieving p ersistence
Identifying how to secure the long - term persistence of
species, ecosystems and the ecological and evolutionary processes that maintain them is diffi cult. For most
systematic conservation plans, persistence objectives
are formed as targets. These targets should be informed
by ecological theory and empirical knowledge of
species autoecology and biogeography (Carwardine
et al ., 2009 ).
The research that went into designing a conservation plan for the critically endangered Leadbeater ’ s
possum ( Gymnobelidius leadbeateri ) is a good example of
how an objective for persistence can be calculated
using a species minimum viable area. This possum,
considered an umbrella species (see Box 6.1 ), inhabits
the tall forests of southern Victoria, Australia, but its
habitat has receded due to industrial logging and
changed fi re regimes.
Lindenmayer and Possingham (1995) showed that
the species needed several patches, each of at least 100
ha in size, in each forest catchment in which they
were present, to ensure their persistence in the long
term. It was argued that all remaining patches of
habitat containing this species must be protected and,
if possible, enlarged by restoration activities to hit this
minimum viable patch size, which has been the basis
of conservation plans in the region.
In a similar example, Carroll et al . (2003) developed
a conservation plan based on the needs of mammalian
carnivores in the Rocky Mountains region of North
America, using a spatially explicit population model
that informed the design of the protected area
network.
Persistence targets can also be set for environmental
surrogates, especially when planning at coarser spatial
scales. These are often based on achieving representational targets for biodiversity features while implicitly
accounting for consequences for other stakeholders
(e.g. agriculturalists or the forestry sector). For
example, in a series of Regional Forestry Agreements
developed in Australia, it was agreed by all stakeholders, including conservation biologists, that each distinct forest type was adequately protected if at least
15 per cent of its area was within a protected area
(Pressey, 1998 ).
In the Californian marine case study outlined
in Box 6.3 , different persistence targets based on
Systematic conservation planning: past, present and future
The Maputaland system involved identifying 44 land - cover types, 53 species and 14 ecological
processes as important conservation features, and mapping their distributions using satellite imagery
and expert opinion (Smith et al ., 2008 ). It also involved using data on the predicted spread of
subsistence agriculture as a measure of both threat and opportunity cost, together with data on
potential revenue from game ranching, which has key relevance for implementing the results (Knight
et al ., 2006 ).
The fi rst conservation assessment used the Marxan conservation planning software, which uses
a simulated annealing approach (Ball & Possingham, 2000 ). This involved:
1 dividing the region into a number of planning units;
2 assigning a cost to each planning unit based on its modelled risk of being cleared for
agriculture;
3 using Marxan to identify near - optimal portfolios of these units for meeting the targets, maintaining
connectivity and minimizing impacts on subsistence agriculture (Figure B6.2 b).
These initial outputs were then used to develop a conservation landscape plan that could boost
economic development through nature - based tourism and game ranching. The analysis identifi ed
4,291 km
2 of new core protected areas and 480 km
2 of land that would function as ecological linkages (Figure B6.2 c). The game ranching data were then used to estimate potential revenue from
this proposed expansion of the protected area system.
The results showed that these new areas could provide US$18.8 million per annum, thereby
helping to create jobs and reduce poverty. These results have already been used to guide South
Africa ’ s National Protected Area Expansion Strategy and the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund
initiative in the Maputaland – Pondoland – Albany hotspot, although more work is needed to ensure
that the system becomes part of day - to - day land use planning in all three countries.
6.4.2 Achieving p ersistence
Identifying how to secure the long - term persistence of
species, ecosystems and the ecological and evolutionary processes that maintain them is diffi cult. For most
systematic conservation plans, persistence objectives
are formed as targets. These targets should be informed
by ecological theory and empirical knowledge of
species autoecology and biogeography (Carwardine
et al ., 2009 ).
The research that went into designing a conservation plan for the critically endangered Leadbeater ’ s
possum ( Gymnobelidius leadbeateri ) is a good example of
how an objective for persistence can be calculated
using a species minimum viable area. This possum,
considered an umbrella species (see Box 6.1 ), inhabits
the tall forests of southern Victoria, Australia, but its
habitat has receded due to industrial logging and
changed fi re regimes.
Lindenmayer and Possingham (1995) showed that
the species needed several patches, each of at least 100
ha in size, in each forest catchment in which they
were present, to ensure their persistence in the long
term. It was argued that all remaining patches of
habitat containing this species must be protected and,
if possible, enlarged by restoration activities to hit this
minimum viable patch size, which has been the basis
of conservation plans in the region.
In a similar example, Carroll et al . (2003) developed
a conservation plan based on the needs of mammalian
carnivores in the Rocky Mountains region of North
America, using a spatially explicit population model
that informed the design of the protected area
network.
Persistence targets can also be set for environmental
surrogates, especially when planning at coarser spatial
scales. These are often based on achieving representational targets for biodiversity features while implicitly
accounting for consequences for other stakeholders
(e.g. agriculturalists or the forestry sector). For
example, in a series of Regional Forestry Agreements
developed in Australia, it was agreed by all stakeholders, including conservation biologists, that each distinct forest type was adequately protected if at least
15 per cent of its area was within a protected area
(Pressey, 1998 ).
In the Californian marine case study outlined
in Box 6.3 , different persistence targets based on