statistical correlations, expert opinion and model outputs. Integrating these disparate information sources into a modeling framework allows for much more
complex problems to be objectively examined, thereby shedding new light on the
physical and ecological dynamics of coral reefs. It also enables new tools to be
developed for reef managers, allowing them to evaluate management strategies on
the basis of sound science, taking into account competing ecological, social and
economic demands. An example of such a tool is Marxan, an integrative software
system used in terrestrial and marine protected area design. It was used in the rezoning of the GBR in 2003–2004 and has since become the most widely used
conservation planning software (Fernandes et al. 2005; Watts et al. 2009). The
following case studies are examples of recent inroads that remotely sensed SST
data have made through integration and modeling.
12.3.1 Marine Protected Area Design
The concept of building resilience principles into Marine Protected Area (MPA)
design and management is relatively new and incorporates four main principles:
(1) spread the overall risk from catastrophic events, like bleaching, to increase
likelihood of reef survival; (2) identify and protect key sites; (3) incorporate
patterns of connectivity and replenishment; and (4) inform effective and adaptive
management (Green et al. 2007). These principles are being put into practice in the
design of new MPAs in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea (www.nature.org) and the
Bahamas (www.livingoceansfoundation.org). One of the critical new concepts in
these programs is explicitly incorporating the effects of climate change into the
planning of the marine reserves. Spreading the risk from bleaching is achieved by
exploring and utilizing the complex mosaic of thermal environments that often
exist around coral reefs. Identifying and mapping these areas allows a range of risk
profiles to be incorporated into reserves, which reduces the likelihood of wholesale
impact.
Mumby et al. (2011) mapped the chronic and acute thermal stress environments
in the Bahamas and, in conjunction with connectivity models, used these to
develop and test reserve designs with a view to maximize resilience of reefs in the
future. Results show that scales of larval dispersal are commensurate with desirable connectivity outcomes, and that ‘adaptation’ (in the vernacular sense, i.e.,
either genotypic or phenotypic) scenarios can dramatically influence the optimal
reserve network design. The study describes the following scenarios and prioritization strategies (Fig. 12.3):
• ‘Adaptation’ adequate. If adaptation rates are adequate, it is best to prioritize
connections among and between reefs with low chronic and acute stress, and
reefs with low acute but high chronic stress. Reefs in high stress (chronic and
acute) environments might serve as an ‘evolutionary pump’ where adaptation
could be faster and more directional.
328
S. J. Weeks et al.
complex problems to be objectively examined, thereby shedding new light on the
physical and ecological dynamics of coral reefs. It also enables new tools to be
developed for reef managers, allowing them to evaluate management strategies on
the basis of sound science, taking into account competing ecological, social and
economic demands. An example of such a tool is Marxan, an integrative software
system used in terrestrial and marine protected area design. It was used in the rezoning of the GBR in 2003–2004 and has since become the most widely used
conservation planning software (Fernandes et al. 2005; Watts et al. 2009). The
following case studies are examples of recent inroads that remotely sensed SST
data have made through integration and modeling.
12.3.1 Marine Protected Area Design
The concept of building resilience principles into Marine Protected Area (MPA)
design and management is relatively new and incorporates four main principles:
(1) spread the overall risk from catastrophic events, like bleaching, to increase
likelihood of reef survival; (2) identify and protect key sites; (3) incorporate
patterns of connectivity and replenishment; and (4) inform effective and adaptive
management (Green et al. 2007). These principles are being put into practice in the
design of new MPAs in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea (www.nature.org) and the
Bahamas (www.livingoceansfoundation.org). One of the critical new concepts in
these programs is explicitly incorporating the effects of climate change into the
planning of the marine reserves. Spreading the risk from bleaching is achieved by
exploring and utilizing the complex mosaic of thermal environments that often
exist around coral reefs. Identifying and mapping these areas allows a range of risk
profiles to be incorporated into reserves, which reduces the likelihood of wholesale
impact.
Mumby et al. (2011) mapped the chronic and acute thermal stress environments
in the Bahamas and, in conjunction with connectivity models, used these to
develop and test reserve designs with a view to maximize resilience of reefs in the
future. Results show that scales of larval dispersal are commensurate with desirable connectivity outcomes, and that ‘adaptation’ (in the vernacular sense, i.e.,
either genotypic or phenotypic) scenarios can dramatically influence the optimal
reserve network design. The study describes the following scenarios and prioritization strategies (Fig. 12.3):
• ‘Adaptation’ adequate. If adaptation rates are adequate, it is best to prioritize
connections among and between reefs with low chronic and acute stress, and
reefs with low acute but high chronic stress. Reefs in high stress (chronic and
acute) environments might serve as an ‘evolutionary pump’ where adaptation
could be faster and more directional.
328
S. J. Weeks et al.