406
18. The Global Shrimp Market
under a variety of scenarios . The next phase in this project is to collect
feedback from people in the system to develop more confidence in the
model.
As you can see from this chapter, even our current rudimentary model is
able to reproduce observed behavior that is resulting from the interplay between the shrimp fishery and aquaculture. The model shows both intended
and unintended consequences of this interplay on the global economy and
environment. This gives us hope that further model development will provide a tool for scenario testing of policies designed to improve the overall
shrimp commodity system. Such a tool will be necessary to help stakeholders develop a consensus around policies that they would like to implement.
18.6. Questions and Tasks
1. Experiment with the second scenario by testing a range of subsidy
amounts. What subsidy levels improve system behavior?
2. Set the model in steady-state (navigate using the "Initial Conditions" button) and then use the consumption pulse (navigate using "Add'l Scenarios" button) to see how a one-time increased demand will affect the entire system.
3. Change the curve of normalper cap consump (navigate using "Add'l Scenarios" button) to see how other demand curves will affect the system.
Draw a curve to simulate a downturn in the world economy (e.g. the recent Asian economic crisis), or a one -time cut in demand (e.g. the reduced Japanese consumption that occurred when the Japanese emperor
died).
4. Experiment with cost-effective ways to promote "best practice" in aquaculture . Either add structure, or use the annual good practice incentive
knob (navigate using the "Regulations and Policies" button) to allocate
funds.
5. Study the graphical function called effect of coastal effluents on aqua
until you understand the assumptions being made in the curve as it is
drawn. Experiment with other possible curves and state what hypotheses you are testing by each curve.
SHRIMP AQUACULTURE
Aquaculture
Hectares_Abandoned(t) = Hectares_Abandoned(t-dt) +
(abandoning-replanting) * dt
INIT Hectares_Abandoned
18. The Global Shrimp Market
under a variety of scenarios . The next phase in this project is to collect
feedback from people in the system to develop more confidence in the
model.
As you can see from this chapter, even our current rudimentary model is
able to reproduce observed behavior that is resulting from the interplay between the shrimp fishery and aquaculture. The model shows both intended
and unintended consequences of this interplay on the global economy and
environment. This gives us hope that further model development will provide a tool for scenario testing of policies designed to improve the overall
shrimp commodity system. Such a tool will be necessary to help stakeholders develop a consensus around policies that they would like to implement.
18.6. Questions and Tasks
1. Experiment with the second scenario by testing a range of subsidy
amounts. What subsidy levels improve system behavior?
2. Set the model in steady-state (navigate using the "Initial Conditions" button) and then use the consumption pulse (navigate using "Add'l Scenarios" button) to see how a one-time increased demand will affect the entire system.
3. Change the curve of normalper cap consump (navigate using "Add'l Scenarios" button) to see how other demand curves will affect the system.
Draw a curve to simulate a downturn in the world economy (e.g. the recent Asian economic crisis), or a one -time cut in demand (e.g. the reduced Japanese consumption that occurred when the Japanese emperor
died).
4. Experiment with cost-effective ways to promote "best practice" in aquaculture . Either add structure, or use the annual good practice incentive
knob (navigate using the "Regulations and Policies" button) to allocate
funds.
5. Study the graphical function called effect of coastal effluents on aqua
until you understand the assumptions being made in the curve as it is
drawn. Experiment with other possible curves and state what hypotheses you are testing by each curve.
SHRIMP AQUACULTURE
Aquaculture
Hectares_Abandoned(t) = Hectares_Abandoned(t-dt) +
(abandoning-replanting) * dt
INIT Hectares_Abandoned