304
Y. Olsen et al.
It is likely that industrial developments and innovations will require some resistance
and challenges during periods; an everlasting origin-situation may lead to stagnation
and losses of competitive force. If so, we can conclude that there is a very positive
long-term effect on sustainability of continuously challenging a developing industry
even if the short time effect may seem to be negative for the industry (“competition
makes strong”). The driving factors discussed below have been evaluated broadly
using the methodology represented in Box 10.1 and Fig. 10.4.
10.4 Future Perspectives on Mariculture
The future development of mariculture is dependent on many factors and is not easily
predictable. The above section treated some driving factors that may, under given situations, affect developments quite pronouncedly. A primary factor not mentioned
specifically, which is relatively predictable, is the political, social and demographic
effects of the growing global human population. The growing population, and an
increasing market demand, will most likely become a powerful driving force for a
further increase in mariculture activity during the 21st century. For our prediction of
the future development from 2000 to 2050, we assume the following scenario:
●
The global population will develop as predicted by UN, reaching 9 billion people
by 2050.
●
There will be a parallel, steady increase in the demands for seafood in the world
market.
●
Capture from fisheries levelled off at today’s value of 80 – 90 million tonnes
year
−1
.
●
There will be no major world crisis that will reduce the purchasing power of the
global population during 2006 – 2050, which will continue to rise steadily.
10.4.1 Bio-resources For Fish Feed (Resource Type Driver)
There is a fundamental difference in the developmental stage of agriculture and
aquaculture. The provision mode for seafood is now gradually moving from capturing
to culturing. A comparable development took place on land at the beginning of the
Holocene, when agriculture gradually took over hunting in the ancient urban human
communities. The driving force for this process was most likely the increasing
needs for food of the growing human population, an increase which could not be
achieved by harvesting nature. The domesticated animals were controllable herbivores
that exploited plants from nature. The comparable activity in the sea is termed sea
ranching; it involves release of juveniles, and some times also habitat improvement
and control of predators, but this activity is far more complicated and economically
questionable than animal farming on land. The concept of sea ranching was inten-
Y. Olsen et al.
It is likely that industrial developments and innovations will require some resistance
and challenges during periods; an everlasting origin-situation may lead to stagnation
and losses of competitive force. If so, we can conclude that there is a very positive
long-term effect on sustainability of continuously challenging a developing industry
even if the short time effect may seem to be negative for the industry (“competition
makes strong”). The driving factors discussed below have been evaluated broadly
using the methodology represented in Box 10.1 and Fig. 10.4.
10.4 Future Perspectives on Mariculture
The future development of mariculture is dependent on many factors and is not easily
predictable. The above section treated some driving factors that may, under given situations, affect developments quite pronouncedly. A primary factor not mentioned
specifically, which is relatively predictable, is the political, social and demographic
effects of the growing global human population. The growing population, and an
increasing market demand, will most likely become a powerful driving force for a
further increase in mariculture activity during the 21st century. For our prediction of
the future development from 2000 to 2050, we assume the following scenario:
●
The global population will develop as predicted by UN, reaching 9 billion people
by 2050.
●
There will be a parallel, steady increase in the demands for seafood in the world
market.
●
Capture from fisheries levelled off at today’s value of 80 – 90 million tonnes
year
−1
.
●
There will be no major world crisis that will reduce the purchasing power of the
global population during 2006 – 2050, which will continue to rise steadily.
10.4.1 Bio-resources For Fish Feed (Resource Type Driver)
There is a fundamental difference in the developmental stage of agriculture and
aquaculture. The provision mode for seafood is now gradually moving from capturing
to culturing. A comparable development took place on land at the beginning of the
Holocene, when agriculture gradually took over hunting in the ancient urban human
communities. The driving force for this process was most likely the increasing
needs for food of the growing human population, an increase which could not be
achieved by harvesting nature. The domesticated animals were controllable herbivores
that exploited plants from nature. The comparable activity in the sea is termed sea
ranching; it involves release of juveniles, and some times also habitat improvement
and control of predators, but this activity is far more complicated and economically
questionable than animal farming on land. The concept of sea ranching was inten-