9 Future Trends in Aquaculture Production
273
A relatively intensive production technology is necessary for aquaculture to
become industrialised. While most of the world’s aquaculture production cannot be
characterised as intensive, this seems to be the direction in which it is heading. The
higher degree of control over the production process allows technological innovation to a much larger extent than other operation modes. This allows large-scale
production that can benefit from cost-saving economies of scale, which is necessary
if aquaculture is to fulfil its promise as a major food-producing method with global
benefits. It also allows market-oriented production and logistics, so that the fish can
be sold in the markets that provide the producer with most added value.
Since price in most cases is the most important argument with respect to which
product in a group of products a retailer will stock, total production cost will be the
main factor explaining which aquaculture products will be produced. By total production cost one means the total cost of bringing the product to the consumer,
which then includes transportation and processing costs. What products and species
will be produced will then depend on which species gives the lowest production
costs. Choice of production location will depend on which area offers the most
competitive advantages in terms of access to suitable land/sea localities, good market
access, favourable regulations, etc.
If one looks at agriculture and meat production where there are four main species
(beef, pork, chicken and lamb), it is likely that there will not be many aquaculture
species that are produced in large volumes. Exactly how many species there will be
will partly depend on how many species that can have a similar productivity growth
and how distinct consumers think large fish is relatively to portion sized fish, fresh to
frozen, or finfish to crustaceans and shellfish. There will also be a smaller high-end
market where a substantial part of the wild fish is sold (similar to quail, rabbit, turkey,
deer, boar, duck, geese, etc.), as well as a low end/feed production segment.
In this paper we will discuss these issues further. For a historical background we will
focus particularly on salmon and shrimp, since these are among the most successful
and valuable intensively farmed species, and the species where most development
has taken place so far. The discussion will focus mostly on salmon, because of data
availability, but can be generalised to other species. The chapter is organised as follows.
Section 2 gives a brief overview of global aquaculture production. Section 3 discusses
productivity growth and how this leads to lower production costs. This is the key to
understanding why aquaculture production will continue to increase. Section 4 discusses some implications for the aquaculture industry in the future before some
concluding remarks are offered in Section 5.
9.2 Production of Aquaculture
Following the introduction of semi-intensive and intensive production technologies,
there has been a substantial increase in aquaculture production. Figure 9.1 shows
the total global seafood production from 1970, together with wild and aquaculture
production. As can be seen, aquaculture was relatively insignificant in 1970, making
273
A relatively intensive production technology is necessary for aquaculture to
become industrialised. While most of the world’s aquaculture production cannot be
characterised as intensive, this seems to be the direction in which it is heading. The
higher degree of control over the production process allows technological innovation to a much larger extent than other operation modes. This allows large-scale
production that can benefit from cost-saving economies of scale, which is necessary
if aquaculture is to fulfil its promise as a major food-producing method with global
benefits. It also allows market-oriented production and logistics, so that the fish can
be sold in the markets that provide the producer with most added value.
Since price in most cases is the most important argument with respect to which
product in a group of products a retailer will stock, total production cost will be the
main factor explaining which aquaculture products will be produced. By total production cost one means the total cost of bringing the product to the consumer,
which then includes transportation and processing costs. What products and species
will be produced will then depend on which species gives the lowest production
costs. Choice of production location will depend on which area offers the most
competitive advantages in terms of access to suitable land/sea localities, good market
access, favourable regulations, etc.
If one looks at agriculture and meat production where there are four main species
(beef, pork, chicken and lamb), it is likely that there will not be many aquaculture
species that are produced in large volumes. Exactly how many species there will be
will partly depend on how many species that can have a similar productivity growth
and how distinct consumers think large fish is relatively to portion sized fish, fresh to
frozen, or finfish to crustaceans and shellfish. There will also be a smaller high-end
market where a substantial part of the wild fish is sold (similar to quail, rabbit, turkey,
deer, boar, duck, geese, etc.), as well as a low end/feed production segment.
In this paper we will discuss these issues further. For a historical background we will
focus particularly on salmon and shrimp, since these are among the most successful
and valuable intensively farmed species, and the species where most development
has taken place so far. The discussion will focus mostly on salmon, because of data
availability, but can be generalised to other species. The chapter is organised as follows.
Section 2 gives a brief overview of global aquaculture production. Section 3 discusses
productivity growth and how this leads to lower production costs. This is the key to
understanding why aquaculture production will continue to increase. Section 4 discusses some implications for the aquaculture industry in the future before some
concluding remarks are offered in Section 5.
9.2 Production of Aquaculture
Following the introduction of semi-intensive and intensive production technologies,
there has been a substantial increase in aquaculture production. Figure 9.1 shows
the total global seafood production from 1970, together with wild and aquaculture
production. As can be seen, aquaculture was relatively insignificant in 1970, making