studies. Proceedings National Academy of Science of the United
States of America, 106, 8441–8446.
Pratchett, M. S., Wilson, S. K., Graham, N. A. J., Munday, P. L.,
Jones, G. P., and Polunin, N. V. C., 2009. Coral bleaching and
consequences for motile reef organisms: past, present and uncertain futures. In van Oppen, M. J. H., and Lough, J. M. (eds.),
Coral Bleaching. Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences. Berlin: Springer, pp. 139–158.
Precht, W. F., and Aronson, R. B., 2004. Climate flickers and range
shifts of reef corals. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,
2, 307–314.
Przeslawski, R., Ahyong, S., Byrne, M., Worheides, G., and
Hutchings, P., 2008. Beyond corals and fish: the effects of climate change on noncoral benthic invertebrates of tropical reefs.
Global Change Biology, 14, 2773–2795.
Raupach, M. R., Marland, G., Ciais, O., Le Quere, C., Canadell, J. G.,
Klepper, G., and Field, C. B., 2007. Global and regional drivers of
accelerating CO 2 emissions. Proceedings National Academy of
Science of the United States of America, 104, 10288–10293.
Rayner, N. A., Brohan, P., Parker, D. E., Folland, C. K., Kennedy, J. J.,
Vanicek, M., Ansell, T., and Tett S. F. B., 2006. Improved analyses
of changes and uncertainties in marine temperature measured in
situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset. Journal of Climate, 19, 446–469.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K.,
Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.,
2003. Globally complete analyses of sea surface temperature, sea
ice and night marine air temperature, 1871–2000. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
Reichler, T., and Kim, J., 2008. How well do coupled models simulate today’s climate? Bulletin American Meteorological Society,
89, 303–311.
Reigl, B., 2003. Climate change and coral reefs: different effects in
two high-latitude areas (Arabian Gulf, South Africa). Coral
Reefs, 22, 433–446.
Riegl, B. M., and Purkis, S. J., 2009. Model of coral population
response to accelerated bleaching and mass mortality in
a changing climate. Ecological Modelling, 220, 192–208.
Rosenzweig, C., Karoly, D., Vicarelli, M., Neofotis, P., Wu, Q.,
Casassa, G., Menzel, A., Root, T. L., Estrella, N., Seguin, B.,
Tryjanowski, P., Liu, C., Rawlins, S., and Imeson, A., 2008.
Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature, 453, 353–357.
Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., Gruber, N., Key, R. M., Lee, K.,
Bullister, J. L., Wanninkhof, R., Wong, C. S., Wallace, D. W. R.,
Tilbrook, B., Millero, F. J., Peng, T.- H., Kozyr, A., Ono, T., and
Rios, A. F., 2004. The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO 2 . Science, 305, 367–371.
Sala, E., and Knowlton, N., 2006. Global marine biodiversity
trends. Annual Review of Environmental Resources, 31, 93–122.
Sale, P. F., 2008. Management of coral reefs: where we have gone
wrong and what we can do about it. Marine Pollution Bulletin,
56, 805–809.
Salm, R. V., and Coles, S. L. (eds.), 2001. Coral Bleaching and
Marine Protected Areas. Proceedings of the Workshop on Mitigating Coral Bleaching Impact through MPA Design. Bishop
Museum, Honolulu, Hawaii, 29–31 May 2001. Asia Pacific
Coastal Marine Program Report #0102. Honolulu, Hawaii: The
Nature Conservancy.
Sarmineto, J. L., Slater, R., Barber, R., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Hirst,
A. C., Kleypas, J., Matear, R., Mikolajewicz, U., Monfray, P.,
Soldatov, V., Spall, S. A., and Stouffer, R., 2004. Response of
ocean ecosystems to climate warming. Global Biogeochemical
Cycles, 18, GB3003, doi:10.1029/2003GB002134.
Seidal, D. J., Fu, Q., Randel, W. J., and Reichler, T. J., 2007. Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nature Geoscience,
1, 21–24.
Sheppard, C. R. C., 2003. Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean. Nature, 425, 294–297.
Sheppard, C. R. C., Harris, A., and Sheppard, A. L. S., 2008.
Archipelago-wide coral recovery patterns since 1998 in the
Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean. Marine Ecology
Progress Series, 362, 109–117.
Sheppard, C., and Rioja-Nieto, R., 2005. Sea surface temperature
1871–2099 in 38 cells in the Caribbean region. Marine Environmental Research, 60, 389–396.
Shukla, J., Hagedorn, R., Hoskins, B., Kinter, J., Marotzke, J.,
Miller, M., Palmer, T. N., and Slingo, J., 2009. Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible. A Declaration at
the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Bulletin of
the American Meteorological Society, 90, 175–178.
Silverman, J., Lazar, B., Cao, L., Caldeira, K., and Erez, J., 2009.
Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO 2 doubles.
Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L05606, doi:10.1029/
2008GL036282.
Skirving, W., and Guinotte, J., 2001. The sea surface temperature
story on the Great Barrier Reef during the Coral Bleaching Event
of 1998. In Wolanski, E. (ed.), Oceanographic Processes of
Coral Reefs. Physical and Biological Links in the Great Barrier
Reef. Boca Raton, FL: CRC, pp. 301–313.
Smith, L. W., and Birkeland, C., 2007. Effects of intermittent flow
and irradiance level on back reef Porites corals at elevated seawater temperature. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology
and Ecology, 341, 282–294.
Smith, S. V., and Buddemeier, R. W., 1992. Global change and
coral reef ecosystems. Annual Reviews of Ecological Systems,
23, 89–118.
Smith, L. D., Gilmour, J. P., and Heyward, A. J., 2008. Resilience of
coral communities on an isolated system of reefs following catastrophic mass-bleaching. Coral Reefs, 27, 197–205.
Solomon, S., Plattner, G. -K., Knutti, R., and Friedlingstein, P.,
2009. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proceedings National Academy of Science of the United
States of America, 106, 1704–1708.
Spalding, M., 2009. Detecting and monitoring coral bleaching
events. In van Oppen, M. J. H., and Lough, J. M. (eds.), Coral
Bleaching. Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences.
Berlin: Springer, pp. 69–82.
Spillman, C. M., and Alves, O., 2009. Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier
Reef. Coral Reefs, 28, 197–206.
Tanzil, J. T. I., Brown, B. E., Tudhope, A. W., and Dunne, R. P.,
2009. Decline in skeletal growth of the coral Porites lutea from
the Andaman Sea, South Thailand between 1984 and 2005.
Coral Reefs, 28, 519–528.
van Oppen, M. J. H., Lough, J. M. (eds.), 2009. Coral Bleaching.
Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences. Ecological
Studies. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, Vol. 205, 178pp.
Veron, J. E. N., 2000. Corals of the World. Townsville: Australian
Institute of Marine Science, 1382 pp.
Veron, J. E. N., 2008. Mass extinction and ocean acidification: biological constraints on geological dilemmas. Coral Reefs, 27,
459–472.
Wakeford, M., Done, T. J., and Johnson, C. R., 2008. Decadal trends
in a coral community and evidence of changed disturbance
regime. Coral Reefs, 27, 1–13.
Washington, W. M., Knutti, R., Meehl, G. A., Teng, H., Tebaldi, C.,
Mawrence, D., Buja, L., and Strand, W. G., 2009. How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation? Geophysical
Research Letters, 36, L08703, doi:10.1029/2008GL037074.
Weeks, S. J., Anthony, K. R. N., Bakun, A., Feldman, G. C., and
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., 2008. Improved predictions of coral
bleaching using seasonal baselines and higher spatial resolution.
Limnology and Oceanography, 53, 1369–1375.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CORAL REEFS
209
States of America, 106, 8441–8446.
Pratchett, M. S., Wilson, S. K., Graham, N. A. J., Munday, P. L.,
Jones, G. P., and Polunin, N. V. C., 2009. Coral bleaching and
consequences for motile reef organisms: past, present and uncertain futures. In van Oppen, M. J. H., and Lough, J. M. (eds.),
Coral Bleaching. Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences. Berlin: Springer, pp. 139–158.
Precht, W. F., and Aronson, R. B., 2004. Climate flickers and range
shifts of reef corals. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,
2, 307–314.
Przeslawski, R., Ahyong, S., Byrne, M., Worheides, G., and
Hutchings, P., 2008. Beyond corals and fish: the effects of climate change on noncoral benthic invertebrates of tropical reefs.
Global Change Biology, 14, 2773–2795.
Raupach, M. R., Marland, G., Ciais, O., Le Quere, C., Canadell, J. G.,
Klepper, G., and Field, C. B., 2007. Global and regional drivers of
accelerating CO 2 emissions. Proceedings National Academy of
Science of the United States of America, 104, 10288–10293.
Rayner, N. A., Brohan, P., Parker, D. E., Folland, C. K., Kennedy, J. J.,
Vanicek, M., Ansell, T., and Tett S. F. B., 2006. Improved analyses
of changes and uncertainties in marine temperature measured in
situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset. Journal of Climate, 19, 446–469.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K.,
Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.,
2003. Globally complete analyses of sea surface temperature, sea
ice and night marine air temperature, 1871–2000. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
Reichler, T., and Kim, J., 2008. How well do coupled models simulate today’s climate? Bulletin American Meteorological Society,
89, 303–311.
Reigl, B., 2003. Climate change and coral reefs: different effects in
two high-latitude areas (Arabian Gulf, South Africa). Coral
Reefs, 22, 433–446.
Riegl, B. M., and Purkis, S. J., 2009. Model of coral population
response to accelerated bleaching and mass mortality in
a changing climate. Ecological Modelling, 220, 192–208.
Rosenzweig, C., Karoly, D., Vicarelli, M., Neofotis, P., Wu, Q.,
Casassa, G., Menzel, A., Root, T. L., Estrella, N., Seguin, B.,
Tryjanowski, P., Liu, C., Rawlins, S., and Imeson, A., 2008.
Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature, 453, 353–357.
Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., Gruber, N., Key, R. M., Lee, K.,
Bullister, J. L., Wanninkhof, R., Wong, C. S., Wallace, D. W. R.,
Tilbrook, B., Millero, F. J., Peng, T.- H., Kozyr, A., Ono, T., and
Rios, A. F., 2004. The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO 2 . Science, 305, 367–371.
Sala, E., and Knowlton, N., 2006. Global marine biodiversity
trends. Annual Review of Environmental Resources, 31, 93–122.
Sale, P. F., 2008. Management of coral reefs: where we have gone
wrong and what we can do about it. Marine Pollution Bulletin,
56, 805–809.
Salm, R. V., and Coles, S. L. (eds.), 2001. Coral Bleaching and
Marine Protected Areas. Proceedings of the Workshop on Mitigating Coral Bleaching Impact through MPA Design. Bishop
Museum, Honolulu, Hawaii, 29–31 May 2001. Asia Pacific
Coastal Marine Program Report #0102. Honolulu, Hawaii: The
Nature Conservancy.
Sarmineto, J. L., Slater, R., Barber, R., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Hirst,
A. C., Kleypas, J., Matear, R., Mikolajewicz, U., Monfray, P.,
Soldatov, V., Spall, S. A., and Stouffer, R., 2004. Response of
ocean ecosystems to climate warming. Global Biogeochemical
Cycles, 18, GB3003, doi:10.1029/2003GB002134.
Seidal, D. J., Fu, Q., Randel, W. J., and Reichler, T. J., 2007. Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nature Geoscience,
1, 21–24.
Sheppard, C. R. C., 2003. Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean. Nature, 425, 294–297.
Sheppard, C. R. C., Harris, A., and Sheppard, A. L. S., 2008.
Archipelago-wide coral recovery patterns since 1998 in the
Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean. Marine Ecology
Progress Series, 362, 109–117.
Sheppard, C., and Rioja-Nieto, R., 2005. Sea surface temperature
1871–2099 in 38 cells in the Caribbean region. Marine Environmental Research, 60, 389–396.
Shukla, J., Hagedorn, R., Hoskins, B., Kinter, J., Marotzke, J.,
Miller, M., Palmer, T. N., and Slingo, J., 2009. Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible. A Declaration at
the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Bulletin of
the American Meteorological Society, 90, 175–178.
Silverman, J., Lazar, B., Cao, L., Caldeira, K., and Erez, J., 2009.
Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO 2 doubles.
Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L05606, doi:10.1029/
2008GL036282.
Skirving, W., and Guinotte, J., 2001. The sea surface temperature
story on the Great Barrier Reef during the Coral Bleaching Event
of 1998. In Wolanski, E. (ed.), Oceanographic Processes of
Coral Reefs. Physical and Biological Links in the Great Barrier
Reef. Boca Raton, FL: CRC, pp. 301–313.
Smith, L. W., and Birkeland, C., 2007. Effects of intermittent flow
and irradiance level on back reef Porites corals at elevated seawater temperature. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology
and Ecology, 341, 282–294.
Smith, S. V., and Buddemeier, R. W., 1992. Global change and
coral reef ecosystems. Annual Reviews of Ecological Systems,
23, 89–118.
Smith, L. D., Gilmour, J. P., and Heyward, A. J., 2008. Resilience of
coral communities on an isolated system of reefs following catastrophic mass-bleaching. Coral Reefs, 27, 197–205.
Solomon, S., Plattner, G. -K., Knutti, R., and Friedlingstein, P.,
2009. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proceedings National Academy of Science of the United
States of America, 106, 1704–1708.
Spalding, M., 2009. Detecting and monitoring coral bleaching
events. In van Oppen, M. J. H., and Lough, J. M. (eds.), Coral
Bleaching. Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences.
Berlin: Springer, pp. 69–82.
Spillman, C. M., and Alves, O., 2009. Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier
Reef. Coral Reefs, 28, 197–206.
Tanzil, J. T. I., Brown, B. E., Tudhope, A. W., and Dunne, R. P.,
2009. Decline in skeletal growth of the coral Porites lutea from
the Andaman Sea, South Thailand between 1984 and 2005.
Coral Reefs, 28, 519–528.
van Oppen, M. J. H., Lough, J. M. (eds.), 2009. Coral Bleaching.
Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences. Ecological
Studies. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, Vol. 205, 178pp.
Veron, J. E. N., 2000. Corals of the World. Townsville: Australian
Institute of Marine Science, 1382 pp.
Veron, J. E. N., 2008. Mass extinction and ocean acidification: biological constraints on geological dilemmas. Coral Reefs, 27,
459–472.
Wakeford, M., Done, T. J., and Johnson, C. R., 2008. Decadal trends
in a coral community and evidence of changed disturbance
regime. Coral Reefs, 27, 1–13.
Washington, W. M., Knutti, R., Meehl, G. A., Teng, H., Tebaldi, C.,
Mawrence, D., Buja, L., and Strand, W. G., 2009. How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation? Geophysical
Research Letters, 36, L08703, doi:10.1029/2008GL037074.
Weeks, S. J., Anthony, K. R. N., Bakun, A., Feldman, G. C., and
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., 2008. Improved predictions of coral
bleaching using seasonal baselines and higher spatial resolution.
Limnology and Oceanography, 53, 1369–1375.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CORAL REEFS
209