58
Adaptive Ecosystem Assessment and Management: The Path of Last Resort?
novation, society has followed the path of least resistance. To reverse the ecological consequences
that this approach has wrought, society must take
the path of last resort-working with the differences that separate us from each other and nature
and learning new ways of working and living together.
Adaptive ecosystem assessment and management (AEAM) is a philosophy and an approach to
managing complex adaptive systems that offers
some hope in addressing the fundamental challenges that face natural resource management in the
coming century. Unfortunately, despite over 25
years of development as theory and practice, relatively little is known about it, even though the
experience-based understanding for the need for
such change is mounting among resource scientists
and practitioners.
4.2 Purpose of the Paper
The adaptive environmental assessment (AEA) effort in the Everglades (1988-1993) stands as a testament to collaboration among scientists amid unrivaled political controversy (Davis and Ogden,
1994). But proving the value of AEA in principle
and having this approach and way of thinking integrated into natural resource management are two
very different challenges. Over the past 25 years,
considerable effort has been quietly put into developing theory, conducting research, and implementing adaptive probes. Much learning about
AEAM and how to implement it has occurred, primarily through hard-won experience. Much of the
understanding gained from years of coupling
grounded theory and thoughtful practice remains
tacit and unexpressed, residing in the minds of
those few who have done the work. The founding
works (Holling, 1978; Clark and Munn, 1986; Walters, 1986) are out of print. Those most intimately engaged in practicing AEAM over the past quartercentury, despite best efforts, have not imparted
their accumulated knowledge and understanding in
comprehensive and systemic ways to current and
future generations of resource professionals. This
situation will change, but for present purposes a
few concepts, principles, and the ethos pertaining
to AEAM are offered in this chapter in the hope
that they may in some small way contribute to guiding those interested in the pursuit of AEAM. Chapter 31 continues by summarizing in case study format how these principles were implemented in the
Upper Mississippi River Basin adaptive environmental assessment.
4.3 Management Pathology
Someone once said, "For every complex problem
there is a simple solution that just won't work."
Over the past 50 years, resource management has
exhibited a profound pathology. Examples from
every resource discipline (fisheries, wildlife,
forestry, waters) can be found (Gunderson et aI.,
1995). From a real-time management perspective,
the syndrome in its advanced stages is characterized as "gridlock," "train wrecks," "perpetual crisis," or "whitewater." From a more systemsoriented perspective, the repetitious and cumulative
set of symptoms surfaces as the phenomena of
"fixes that backfire" (Senge, 1990). The central
problem is that the implementation of simplistic solutions results in temporary alleviation of symptoms, followed by long-term adverse consequences
that are often worse than the original problem. This
pattern of decisions over time is seen as the endless pursuit of and redefinition of "the problem."
For example, in the Everglades the management
problem was successively redefined over 100 years
as drainage, flood control, water supply, water
quality, environmental mitigation, and ecological
restoration. The cumulative effect of the layering
of solutions one upon the other is the emergence
of gridlock-institutional, technological, and political. All proposed solutions are seen as in conflict
with each other, with none having a clear, decisive,
competitive advantage as the sagas continue to unfold. Management in this sense has become pathological, a ritualistic repetition of steps designed to
optimize one interest or value, as summarized in
Gunderson et al. (1995). The pathology follows the
following predictable sequence of events:
MANAGEMENT DECISION
1. Selection of single target
2. Full systems consequences ignored
3. Certainty assumed through control
4. Ecological consequences
5. Initial success followed by crisis
6. Attempts to get out of trouble lead back in only
to deeper trouble
7. Loss of ecological structure and composition
8. Increasing vulnerability to subsequent shocks
4.3.1 Surprise and Pathology
In recent years, resource management has been
shaken by a procession of external disturbances,
discontinuities, innovations, and breakpoints.
These dramatic changes have been manifested in
technology, public opinion, life-styles, demo-
Adaptive Ecosystem Assessment and Management: The Path of Last Resort?
novation, society has followed the path of least resistance. To reverse the ecological consequences
that this approach has wrought, society must take
the path of last resort-working with the differences that separate us from each other and nature
and learning new ways of working and living together.
Adaptive ecosystem assessment and management (AEAM) is a philosophy and an approach to
managing complex adaptive systems that offers
some hope in addressing the fundamental challenges that face natural resource management in the
coming century. Unfortunately, despite over 25
years of development as theory and practice, relatively little is known about it, even though the
experience-based understanding for the need for
such change is mounting among resource scientists
and practitioners.
4.2 Purpose of the Paper
The adaptive environmental assessment (AEA) effort in the Everglades (1988-1993) stands as a testament to collaboration among scientists amid unrivaled political controversy (Davis and Ogden,
1994). But proving the value of AEA in principle
and having this approach and way of thinking integrated into natural resource management are two
very different challenges. Over the past 25 years,
considerable effort has been quietly put into developing theory, conducting research, and implementing adaptive probes. Much learning about
AEAM and how to implement it has occurred, primarily through hard-won experience. Much of the
understanding gained from years of coupling
grounded theory and thoughtful practice remains
tacit and unexpressed, residing in the minds of
those few who have done the work. The founding
works (Holling, 1978; Clark and Munn, 1986; Walters, 1986) are out of print. Those most intimately engaged in practicing AEAM over the past quartercentury, despite best efforts, have not imparted
their accumulated knowledge and understanding in
comprehensive and systemic ways to current and
future generations of resource professionals. This
situation will change, but for present purposes a
few concepts, principles, and the ethos pertaining
to AEAM are offered in this chapter in the hope
that they may in some small way contribute to guiding those interested in the pursuit of AEAM. Chapter 31 continues by summarizing in case study format how these principles were implemented in the
Upper Mississippi River Basin adaptive environmental assessment.
4.3 Management Pathology
Someone once said, "For every complex problem
there is a simple solution that just won't work."
Over the past 50 years, resource management has
exhibited a profound pathology. Examples from
every resource discipline (fisheries, wildlife,
forestry, waters) can be found (Gunderson et aI.,
1995). From a real-time management perspective,
the syndrome in its advanced stages is characterized as "gridlock," "train wrecks," "perpetual crisis," or "whitewater." From a more systemsoriented perspective, the repetitious and cumulative
set of symptoms surfaces as the phenomena of
"fixes that backfire" (Senge, 1990). The central
problem is that the implementation of simplistic solutions results in temporary alleviation of symptoms, followed by long-term adverse consequences
that are often worse than the original problem. This
pattern of decisions over time is seen as the endless pursuit of and redefinition of "the problem."
For example, in the Everglades the management
problem was successively redefined over 100 years
as drainage, flood control, water supply, water
quality, environmental mitigation, and ecological
restoration. The cumulative effect of the layering
of solutions one upon the other is the emergence
of gridlock-institutional, technological, and political. All proposed solutions are seen as in conflict
with each other, with none having a clear, decisive,
competitive advantage as the sagas continue to unfold. Management in this sense has become pathological, a ritualistic repetition of steps designed to
optimize one interest or value, as summarized in
Gunderson et al. (1995). The pathology follows the
following predictable sequence of events:
MANAGEMENT DECISION
1. Selection of single target
2. Full systems consequences ignored
3. Certainty assumed through control
4. Ecological consequences
5. Initial success followed by crisis
6. Attempts to get out of trouble lead back in only
to deeper trouble
7. Loss of ecological structure and composition
8. Increasing vulnerability to subsequent shocks
4.3.1 Surprise and Pathology
In recent years, resource management has been
shaken by a procession of external disturbances,
discontinuities, innovations, and breakpoints.
These dramatic changes have been manifested in
technology, public opinion, life-styles, demo-