458
can be undertaken to assess data quality and applicability. Most data collected thus far have been
secondary data. Future analyses may require additional data collection (and funding), both primary
and secondary. Some GLA data will become obsolete or dated. A process is needed to ensure longterm data maintenance, updating, and user support.
The lessons learned to date will help us to more effectively address future opportunities.
30.10 Future Work
This project is funded annually based on customer
support and requested services. The NPR award
was completed in 1999, and the initial goals of data
assemblage and delivery have been met. The project is currently funded by the Joint Fire Science
Program (USDI and USDA), and the Washington
Office of the Forest Service. The Joint Fire Science
project is acquiring, developing, and analyzing data
on disturbance factors influencing the forests of the
Lake States. The Washington Office project is
quantifying select indicators of forest sustainability. Proposals to various funding agencies have
been submitted, and we hope to continue to build
partnerships in this new millennium.
From the onset, the Great Lakes Ecological Assessment was envisioned as one part of an overall
program of integrated research and management.
In this overall program, involving far more people
and organizations than currently involved with the
GLA, we hope to contribute to a long-term, iterative process that includes adaptive planning, management, monitoring, and research. The first step
in this process identified issues at multiple scales.
Next, we have been acquiring information that is
already in the public domain and identifying information gaps to be filled based on need and cost.
This approach is being repeated in the analysis
phase, in which existing models were identified and
utilized, with follow-up development of new models based on needs and priorities. Given time and
resources, the GLA will augment numerical and
simulation models with expert opinions or working
hypotheses that serve as conceptual models for use
in planning and management. Subsequent monitoring and research on subsets of these working hypotheses could either validate or refute these hypotheses. Ideally, planning, management, and
research will be adjusted as appropriate and the entire process repeated as necessary to meet longterm planning and management needs.
We believe the integration of issues, plans, management, and monitoring activities becomes more
The Great Lakes Ecological Assessment
feasible, given multiscaled assessments and analyses, particularly while meeting goals of sustainable
forest management. For example, spatially explicit
estimates of forest change could be produced by integrating remotely sensed vegetation classifications, plot data from national programs, such as the
Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis, and
other information on forest composition, growth,
and mortality with maps of constraining environmental conditions (such as the USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service's soil surveys).
A particularly useful analysis would be development of spatial estimates of timber supply linked
with market demands, changing management patterns, and government planning alternatives to
evaluate and monitor sustainability and multiownership trade-offs resulting from centralized decisions by public agencies. Current and potential timber supply could be analyzed to facilitate effective
monitoring of the effects of management at the forest plan and project levels. Projections of potential
timber supply necessary to judge long-term sustainability could be based on biological potential
and social and economic factors, including growth
rates, management trends, and availability of land
for harvest or withdrawal from the timber base.
The Great Lakes Ecological Assessment has
been unlike other assessment efforts in several
ways. The project was not motivated or constrained
by one or a few highly visible major issues that
threaten forest sustainability. Rather, it has been a
steady effort to address a set of broad issues and
advance understanding of the dynamics of an entire regional forest landscape and the many natural
and human processes that affect forest resources.
The process has been customer driven and responsive to ongoing needs for information to improve
comprehensive forest planning across a landscape
composed of many owners. It has focused on gathering and analyzing information for policy makers,
rather than proposing specific strategies or policies.
The ultimate goal is to establish a framework of
objective information and analytical methods
needed to systematically identify the many forces
shaping the forest resources of the region and to resolve issues of sustainability before they become
crises.
30.11 References
Andersen, 0.; Crow, T. R.; Lietz, S. M.; Stearns, F. W.
1996. Transformation of a landscape in the upper Midwest, USA: the history of the lower St. Croix River
valley, 1830 to present. Landscape Urban Plan. 35:
247-267.
can be undertaken to assess data quality and applicability. Most data collected thus far have been
secondary data. Future analyses may require additional data collection (and funding), both primary
and secondary. Some GLA data will become obsolete or dated. A process is needed to ensure longterm data maintenance, updating, and user support.
The lessons learned to date will help us to more effectively address future opportunities.
30.10 Future Work
This project is funded annually based on customer
support and requested services. The NPR award
was completed in 1999, and the initial goals of data
assemblage and delivery have been met. The project is currently funded by the Joint Fire Science
Program (USDI and USDA), and the Washington
Office of the Forest Service. The Joint Fire Science
project is acquiring, developing, and analyzing data
on disturbance factors influencing the forests of the
Lake States. The Washington Office project is
quantifying select indicators of forest sustainability. Proposals to various funding agencies have
been submitted, and we hope to continue to build
partnerships in this new millennium.
From the onset, the Great Lakes Ecological Assessment was envisioned as one part of an overall
program of integrated research and management.
In this overall program, involving far more people
and organizations than currently involved with the
GLA, we hope to contribute to a long-term, iterative process that includes adaptive planning, management, monitoring, and research. The first step
in this process identified issues at multiple scales.
Next, we have been acquiring information that is
already in the public domain and identifying information gaps to be filled based on need and cost.
This approach is being repeated in the analysis
phase, in which existing models were identified and
utilized, with follow-up development of new models based on needs and priorities. Given time and
resources, the GLA will augment numerical and
simulation models with expert opinions or working
hypotheses that serve as conceptual models for use
in planning and management. Subsequent monitoring and research on subsets of these working hypotheses could either validate or refute these hypotheses. Ideally, planning, management, and
research will be adjusted as appropriate and the entire process repeated as necessary to meet longterm planning and management needs.
We believe the integration of issues, plans, management, and monitoring activities becomes more
The Great Lakes Ecological Assessment
feasible, given multiscaled assessments and analyses, particularly while meeting goals of sustainable
forest management. For example, spatially explicit
estimates of forest change could be produced by integrating remotely sensed vegetation classifications, plot data from national programs, such as the
Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis, and
other information on forest composition, growth,
and mortality with maps of constraining environmental conditions (such as the USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service's soil surveys).
A particularly useful analysis would be development of spatial estimates of timber supply linked
with market demands, changing management patterns, and government planning alternatives to
evaluate and monitor sustainability and multiownership trade-offs resulting from centralized decisions by public agencies. Current and potential timber supply could be analyzed to facilitate effective
monitoring of the effects of management at the forest plan and project levels. Projections of potential
timber supply necessary to judge long-term sustainability could be based on biological potential
and social and economic factors, including growth
rates, management trends, and availability of land
for harvest or withdrawal from the timber base.
The Great Lakes Ecological Assessment has
been unlike other assessment efforts in several
ways. The project was not motivated or constrained
by one or a few highly visible major issues that
threaten forest sustainability. Rather, it has been a
steady effort to address a set of broad issues and
advance understanding of the dynamics of an entire regional forest landscape and the many natural
and human processes that affect forest resources.
The process has been customer driven and responsive to ongoing needs for information to improve
comprehensive forest planning across a landscape
composed of many owners. It has focused on gathering and analyzing information for policy makers,
rather than proposing specific strategies or policies.
The ultimate goal is to establish a framework of
objective information and analytical methods
needed to systematically identify the many forces
shaping the forest resources of the region and to resolve issues of sustainability before they become
crises.
30.11 References
Andersen, 0.; Crow, T. R.; Lietz, S. M.; Stearns, F. W.
1996. Transformation of a landscape in the upper Midwest, USA: the history of the lower St. Croix River
valley, 1830 to present. Landscape Urban Plan. 35:
247-267.