168
Decision Support for Ecosystem Management and Ecological Assessments
can be skipped (Figure 12.3). The next step, alternative development, has three phases: (2a) search:
finding previously designed and tested solutions to
the entire problem or to any of its parts; (2b) design: developing new alternatives; and (2c) screen:
determining whether the number and quality of the
alternatives found, developed, or both, provide an
adequate range of choices for the selection step.
The selection step also has three phases: (3a) analysis and evaluation: evaluating and understanding
the consequences over space and time of each of
the proposed alternatives and communicating these
results clearly to the decision makers; (3b) judgment and choice: one individual makes a choice;
and (3c) bargaining and choice: a group of decision makers negotiates a choice. The final step, authorization, may have two outcomes: (4a) authorization achieved: approval inside and outside the
institutional hierarchy is obtained, marking the end
of the planning process and the beginning of the
implementation process; and (4b) authorization denied: evaluating the cause for denial and looping
back to the appropriate part of the decision process
to make another attempt at achieving authorization
(Janssen, 1992).
A particular decision can take many pathways
through these four steps, and iterative cycles are a
normal part of how environmental decisions are actually made (Janssen, 1992). These cycles occur as
the decision participant's understanding of a complex problem evolves and when alternative solutions fail to meet administrative, scientific, or political standards. Mintzberg et ai. (1976) maintained
that problems can be classified into seven types and
that the solution cycle for each type can be mapped
on Figure 12.3. Janssen (1992) illustrates this point
by presenting and discussing the solution cycles of
20 actual environmental problems in the Netherlands, ranging from measures to reduce NH3 emissions, to clean-up of a polluted site, to protecting
forests from acid rain. The effectiveness of competing EM-DSSs may be evaluated by how many
of the above phases are supported, how well they
are supported, and whether the complex iterative
cycling of real-world problems is supported
(Janssen, 1992).
12.3.2 Act
The planning stage of adaptive management results
in decisions about goals and constraints. The action stage determines how, where, and when to implement activities to achieve the goals and adhere
to the constraints. Given a clear statement of management goals and objectives, the implementation
stage creates testable adaptive management hypotheses, explicitly describes the assumptions supporting them, and generates an appropriate set of
targeted actions (Everett et aI., 1993). How each
hypothesis is tested must be carefully and clearly
documented (Walters and Holling, 1990; Lee,
1993; Kimmins, 1995).
12.3.3 Monitor
Documentation in the action stage is stressed because the monitoring stage often occurs months to
years later, and the individuals who implemented
the actions may not be involved in monitoring or
subsequent evaluation. Documentation may be the
only link between the two stages. The monitored
results of experimental actions must also be
recorded carefully and in detail so that a complete,
understandable package exists for the evaluation
stage.
This definition of the monitoring stage of adaptive management has immediate consequences.
Which variables are monitored and when, how, and
where they are monitored depend almost entirely on
the hypotheses created in the action stage and on the
type of actions deemed necessary to test those hypotheses. A unique goal-hypotheses-action sequence will probably need to be designed for each
specific management unit. Similarly, each unit will
probably have unique monitoring requirements to
distinguish among the adaptive experimental hypotheses proposed for it. As a result, no general,
broad-spectrum monitoring program can or should
be designed to support adaptive management. Adaptive management means management by experiment. Management by experiment requires hypotheses that must be implemented and tested.
Hence monitoring can only occur after the hypotheses have been designed and their tests devised so that
it is clear what needs monitoring (FEMAT, 1993).
12.3.4 Evaluate
Finally, the documentation describing each adaptive management experiment must be analyzed and
the results evaluated. Promising statistical methods
have been identified (Carpenter, 1990), but using
them requires considerable expertise. At the end of
the adaptive management cycle, a written report
should communicate the results publicly to stakeholders and managers, influencing future cycles of
the planning activity of adaptive management
(Everett et aI., 1993). In fact, a metaanalysis of all
Decision Support for Ecosystem Management and Ecological Assessments
can be skipped (Figure 12.3). The next step, alternative development, has three phases: (2a) search:
finding previously designed and tested solutions to
the entire problem or to any of its parts; (2b) design: developing new alternatives; and (2c) screen:
determining whether the number and quality of the
alternatives found, developed, or both, provide an
adequate range of choices for the selection step.
The selection step also has three phases: (3a) analysis and evaluation: evaluating and understanding
the consequences over space and time of each of
the proposed alternatives and communicating these
results clearly to the decision makers; (3b) judgment and choice: one individual makes a choice;
and (3c) bargaining and choice: a group of decision makers negotiates a choice. The final step, authorization, may have two outcomes: (4a) authorization achieved: approval inside and outside the
institutional hierarchy is obtained, marking the end
of the planning process and the beginning of the
implementation process; and (4b) authorization denied: evaluating the cause for denial and looping
back to the appropriate part of the decision process
to make another attempt at achieving authorization
(Janssen, 1992).
A particular decision can take many pathways
through these four steps, and iterative cycles are a
normal part of how environmental decisions are actually made (Janssen, 1992). These cycles occur as
the decision participant's understanding of a complex problem evolves and when alternative solutions fail to meet administrative, scientific, or political standards. Mintzberg et ai. (1976) maintained
that problems can be classified into seven types and
that the solution cycle for each type can be mapped
on Figure 12.3. Janssen (1992) illustrates this point
by presenting and discussing the solution cycles of
20 actual environmental problems in the Netherlands, ranging from measures to reduce NH3 emissions, to clean-up of a polluted site, to protecting
forests from acid rain. The effectiveness of competing EM-DSSs may be evaluated by how many
of the above phases are supported, how well they
are supported, and whether the complex iterative
cycling of real-world problems is supported
(Janssen, 1992).
12.3.2 Act
The planning stage of adaptive management results
in decisions about goals and constraints. The action stage determines how, where, and when to implement activities to achieve the goals and adhere
to the constraints. Given a clear statement of management goals and objectives, the implementation
stage creates testable adaptive management hypotheses, explicitly describes the assumptions supporting them, and generates an appropriate set of
targeted actions (Everett et aI., 1993). How each
hypothesis is tested must be carefully and clearly
documented (Walters and Holling, 1990; Lee,
1993; Kimmins, 1995).
12.3.3 Monitor
Documentation in the action stage is stressed because the monitoring stage often occurs months to
years later, and the individuals who implemented
the actions may not be involved in monitoring or
subsequent evaluation. Documentation may be the
only link between the two stages. The monitored
results of experimental actions must also be
recorded carefully and in detail so that a complete,
understandable package exists for the evaluation
stage.
This definition of the monitoring stage of adaptive management has immediate consequences.
Which variables are monitored and when, how, and
where they are monitored depend almost entirely on
the hypotheses created in the action stage and on the
type of actions deemed necessary to test those hypotheses. A unique goal-hypotheses-action sequence will probably need to be designed for each
specific management unit. Similarly, each unit will
probably have unique monitoring requirements to
distinguish among the adaptive experimental hypotheses proposed for it. As a result, no general,
broad-spectrum monitoring program can or should
be designed to support adaptive management. Adaptive management means management by experiment. Management by experiment requires hypotheses that must be implemented and tested.
Hence monitoring can only occur after the hypotheses have been designed and their tests devised so that
it is clear what needs monitoring (FEMAT, 1993).
12.3.4 Evaluate
Finally, the documentation describing each adaptive management experiment must be analyzed and
the results evaluated. Promising statistical methods
have been identified (Carpenter, 1990), but using
them requires considerable expertise. At the end of
the adaptive management cycle, a written report
should communicate the results publicly to stakeholders and managers, influencing future cycles of
the planning activity of adaptive management
(Everett et aI., 1993). In fact, a metaanalysis of all