Considered together, these data offer several conclusions about the impacts of environmental degradation and change, including, in order of
importance:
• Humans are threatened by loss of water and food and by increased incidence of disease.
• The greatest overall impacts from cumulative environmental change will
occur in the tropical countries, which are all economically developing
countries.
• Global warming with its linkages to deforestation is the issue with the
potential to produce the most damage.
• Weather change is likely to produce an increase in the incidence of
natural hazards as increased evaporation is counterbalanced by new,
more intense weather cycles. Because of environmental degradation,
many more people will be at risk.
• Issues related to water are major stress factors on human subsistence and
economic development (Armitage 2000).
With these summary data, this discussion can move from “what” to conducting a geographic analysis to determine generally “where” environmental security problems and conflicts may occur. Spatially explicit models
allow for quantitative deliberations of such questions. For example, a geographic information system (GIS) analysis might take the water-scarcity
data from Figure 15.1 and overlay it with population-growth-rate data
to create Figure 15.2. The result shows the correlation between countries
with high population growth rates and the countries with drinking-watershortage issues. Forty-one of the fifty water-scarce countries also have
population growth rates above 2% per year.
Figure 15.3 shows how several issues can be correlated; in this case: population, deforestation, and water scarcity. Figure 15.3 is based on historical
data and is therefore not predictive, but such hind casts can be used to
improve understanding of underlying causal factors.
One example will bring the connection between the environment and
security into focus; consider Afghanistan. Following the line of analysis just
presented, we begin by examining the country’s population trends. Despite
20 years of war, Afghanistan continues to have a very high annual population growth rate (2.9%) and one of the world’s highest fertility rates (Palka
2001). Data on infant mortality and life expectancy clearly demonstrate
a country that is losing the battle to feed and care for its people. Next,
Afghanistan has less than 9% of its land classified as forests, so forest
resources are not available for subsistence uses, such as shelter and fuel.
Only 12% of the population has access to clean water, and this availability
is not adequate to meet minimum supply needs. Finally, 92% live without
adequate sanitation systems. Overall, these data reveal a country with a
population living on the edge of survival. Based on this form of analysis,
Afghanistan is somewhere in the 10 worst environmental settings in the
304
Wendell Chris King and Virginia H. Dale
importance:
• Humans are threatened by loss of water and food and by increased incidence of disease.
• The greatest overall impacts from cumulative environmental change will
occur in the tropical countries, which are all economically developing
countries.
• Global warming with its linkages to deforestation is the issue with the
potential to produce the most damage.
• Weather change is likely to produce an increase in the incidence of
natural hazards as increased evaporation is counterbalanced by new,
more intense weather cycles. Because of environmental degradation,
many more people will be at risk.
• Issues related to water are major stress factors on human subsistence and
economic development (Armitage 2000).
With these summary data, this discussion can move from “what” to conducting a geographic analysis to determine generally “where” environmental security problems and conflicts may occur. Spatially explicit models
allow for quantitative deliberations of such questions. For example, a geographic information system (GIS) analysis might take the water-scarcity
data from Figure 15.1 and overlay it with population-growth-rate data
to create Figure 15.2. The result shows the correlation between countries
with high population growth rates and the countries with drinking-watershortage issues. Forty-one of the fifty water-scarce countries also have
population growth rates above 2% per year.
Figure 15.3 shows how several issues can be correlated; in this case: population, deforestation, and water scarcity. Figure 15.3 is based on historical
data and is therefore not predictive, but such hind casts can be used to
improve understanding of underlying causal factors.
One example will bring the connection between the environment and
security into focus; consider Afghanistan. Following the line of analysis just
presented, we begin by examining the country’s population trends. Despite
20 years of war, Afghanistan continues to have a very high annual population growth rate (2.9%) and one of the world’s highest fertility rates (Palka
2001). Data on infant mortality and life expectancy clearly demonstrate
a country that is losing the battle to feed and care for its people. Next,
Afghanistan has less than 9% of its land classified as forests, so forest
resources are not available for subsistence uses, such as shelter and fuel.
Only 12% of the population has access to clean water, and this availability
is not adequate to meet minimum supply needs. Finally, 92% live without
adequate sanitation systems. Overall, these data reveal a country with a
population living on the edge of survival. Based on this form of analysis,
Afghanistan is somewhere in the 10 worst environmental settings in the
304
Wendell Chris King and Virginia H. Dale