issue for parts of South and Central America, most of Africa, and much of
Asia.
Salinity in water is another major quality issue of concern in agriculture
and industry. Salts present in irrigation water are retained and concentrated
in the soil as water naturally evaporates from the upper layers. Over time,
without adequate rain to dissolve these salts back into the water for transport away, salt levels in irrigated soil build up to concentrations toxic to
many plants. These lands are then lost to production or must be used for
crops more tolerant of salt. Such crop choices are quite limited. Salination
is reducing food production rates in many parts of the world today, mostly
in arid regions, where lack of rainfall makes soil recovery times very long.
The United States is experiencing this problem in isolated parts of the arid
West and Southwest.
Overall, water is a problem affecting basic survival in at least one-third
of the world and a limiting factor in development for most of the world. As
an anonymous American sage once said, “People argue over politics; they
fight over water.”
15.4 Strategic View of the Role of Models in
Environmental Security
Obviously, achieving environmental security is not going to be straightforward. This problem is compounded by the fact that environmental
security is very much a contextual issue. For example, assume that two disputes over water rights exist between the United States and Mexico on
one border and the United States and Canada on the other. If the technical
details of these two problems are similar, will the nature of the discussions
be the same? Experience supported by numerous examples suggests that
scarcity of water in the south would make that dispute much more
contentious. Further, the prevailing political environment could make the
technical details of the issue secondary to the policy considerations.
Models can help in sorting out the complex issues of environmental
security. For example, Tillman et al. (2001) developed a model that can
explore ramifications on water capacity, price, and financial debt of shifting
water-utility-management goals from water security to cost. Models can
also illustrate the interactions between critical resources for security. For
example, the role of water in the food security of China was explored by
Heilig et al. (2000). They used a detailed agroclimate model to estimate
China’s maximum grain production under rain-fed and irrigation systems
and found that about 70% of the production depends on irrigation. Given
China’s projected grain demand, water conservation and the development
of water resources for agriculture is critical for China’s food security.
Table 15.2 presents a summary of possible impacts of environmental security issues on significant environmental hazards (King 2000).
15. Using Models for Environmental Security
301
Asia.
Salinity in water is another major quality issue of concern in agriculture
and industry. Salts present in irrigation water are retained and concentrated
in the soil as water naturally evaporates from the upper layers. Over time,
without adequate rain to dissolve these salts back into the water for transport away, salt levels in irrigated soil build up to concentrations toxic to
many plants. These lands are then lost to production or must be used for
crops more tolerant of salt. Such crop choices are quite limited. Salination
is reducing food production rates in many parts of the world today, mostly
in arid regions, where lack of rainfall makes soil recovery times very long.
The United States is experiencing this problem in isolated parts of the arid
West and Southwest.
Overall, water is a problem affecting basic survival in at least one-third
of the world and a limiting factor in development for most of the world. As
an anonymous American sage once said, “People argue over politics; they
fight over water.”
15.4 Strategic View of the Role of Models in
Environmental Security
Obviously, achieving environmental security is not going to be straightforward. This problem is compounded by the fact that environmental
security is very much a contextual issue. For example, assume that two disputes over water rights exist between the United States and Mexico on
one border and the United States and Canada on the other. If the technical
details of these two problems are similar, will the nature of the discussions
be the same? Experience supported by numerous examples suggests that
scarcity of water in the south would make that dispute much more
contentious. Further, the prevailing political environment could make the
technical details of the issue secondary to the policy considerations.
Models can help in sorting out the complex issues of environmental
security. For example, Tillman et al. (2001) developed a model that can
explore ramifications on water capacity, price, and financial debt of shifting
water-utility-management goals from water security to cost. Models can
also illustrate the interactions between critical resources for security. For
example, the role of water in the food security of China was explored by
Heilig et al. (2000). They used a detailed agroclimate model to estimate
China’s maximum grain production under rain-fed and irrigation systems
and found that about 70% of the production depends on irrigation. Given
China’s projected grain demand, water conservation and the development
of water resources for agriculture is critical for China’s food security.
Table 15.2 presents a summary of possible impacts of environmental security issues on significant environmental hazards (King 2000).
15. Using Models for Environmental Security
301