office. Flags were used to display the forecast. In 1948, the first primitive
computer numerical forecasts were made on the Electronic Numerical
Integrator and Computer (ENIAC). In 1955 the Weather Bureau began
development of the Barotropic model, which became the first operational,
numerical, weather prediction tool. All weather forecasts begin with observations of weather conditions all over the world, and these observations are
now entered into supercomputers that use mathematical models of the
atmosphere to make predictions. Today the pollen count, air quality, ultraviolet index, and water temperature are often a part of the weather report.
Thus, weather projections are based on a complex set of environmental
measures of the atmosphere, oceans, and land.
The weather-model example shows that it is useful to have research
focused on case studies of environmental decision making showing both
success stories and failures of how a given problem was addressed and
resolved. Such case studies show the delineation of issues of the scientists,
stakeholders, and decision makers and how models can be used.
A set of particular techniques can help deal with the barriers associated
with risk:
• Present variable results in an understandable manner.
• Design the model or tools in terms of the management decisions and
concerns. That is, characterize the risk in terms that can be applied to the
particular decision.
• Deal directly with risk. Although aversion to risk and decision making
in a risky environment are barriers that need to be surmounted, there are
often external forces that compel managers to act and thus address risks.
Thus, the USEPA has adopted a risk-based approach to environmental
problems that requires placing issues within a risk framework (USEPA
1992). [This approach is discussed by Van Winkle and Kadvany (Chapter 3,
this volume) and Harwell and Gentile (Chapter 5, this volume).]
The consensus-building approach of designing a way to deal with
resource management problems shares the risk between potential adversaries. This consensus-building process is quite fragile yet doable as is
illustrated by the long-term interactions of the Applegate Partnership in the
Pacific Northwest. That community-based group is made up of representatives from industry, conservation groups, governmental agencies, research
scientists, and residents who cooperate to protect and restore the health of
the 500,000-acre Oregon watershed and to provide economic and community health (Shipley 1995). The Partnership strives to provide leadership in
facilitating the use of natural resource principles that promote ecosystem
health and natural diversity; to work with public land managers, private
landowners, and community members to promote projects that demonstrate ecologically sound management practices; and to seek support for
these projects through community involvement within the watershed. The
Applegate Partnership successfully moved people from a point of gridlock
118
Virginia H. Dale et al.
computer numerical forecasts were made on the Electronic Numerical
Integrator and Computer (ENIAC). In 1955 the Weather Bureau began
development of the Barotropic model, which became the first operational,
numerical, weather prediction tool. All weather forecasts begin with observations of weather conditions all over the world, and these observations are
now entered into supercomputers that use mathematical models of the
atmosphere to make predictions. Today the pollen count, air quality, ultraviolet index, and water temperature are often a part of the weather report.
Thus, weather projections are based on a complex set of environmental
measures of the atmosphere, oceans, and land.
The weather-model example shows that it is useful to have research
focused on case studies of environmental decision making showing both
success stories and failures of how a given problem was addressed and
resolved. Such case studies show the delineation of issues of the scientists,
stakeholders, and decision makers and how models can be used.
A set of particular techniques can help deal with the barriers associated
with risk:
• Present variable results in an understandable manner.
• Design the model or tools in terms of the management decisions and
concerns. That is, characterize the risk in terms that can be applied to the
particular decision.
• Deal directly with risk. Although aversion to risk and decision making
in a risky environment are barriers that need to be surmounted, there are
often external forces that compel managers to act and thus address risks.
Thus, the USEPA has adopted a risk-based approach to environmental
problems that requires placing issues within a risk framework (USEPA
1992). [This approach is discussed by Van Winkle and Kadvany (Chapter 3,
this volume) and Harwell and Gentile (Chapter 5, this volume).]
The consensus-building approach of designing a way to deal with
resource management problems shares the risk between potential adversaries. This consensus-building process is quite fragile yet doable as is
illustrated by the long-term interactions of the Applegate Partnership in the
Pacific Northwest. That community-based group is made up of representatives from industry, conservation groups, governmental agencies, research
scientists, and residents who cooperate to protect and restore the health of
the 500,000-acre Oregon watershed and to provide economic and community health (Shipley 1995). The Partnership strives to provide leadership in
facilitating the use of natural resource principles that promote ecosystem
health and natural diversity; to work with public land managers, private
landowners, and community members to promote projects that demonstrate ecologically sound management practices; and to seek support for
these projects through community involvement within the watershed. The
Applegate Partnership successfully moved people from a point of gridlock
118
Virginia H. Dale et al.