Possibilities of Cause-and-Effect Simulation in the Study of
System Climate-Ocean-Sediments
S. V. Sirotinskaya
1
Introduction
The mathematical simulation of cause-and-effect relations (CE relations) in the
system climate-ocean-sediments considered in this chapter is based on the ideas
of the English logician J.S.Mill [1], proposed in the 19 th century. He made the
first known attempt to apply tools of logic to the detection of CE relations between phenomena described by propositions. However he considered only the
simplest cases, only one cause and one effect. Unlike Mill's investigations, the i.e.
cause-and -effect simulation (CE simulation) suggested here uses the concepts of
plurality and interaction which have arisen as a result of the study of complicated geological objects. Additionally, tools of formal logic, modern mathematical
logic [2,6] and computer processing of data [3,4] are also employed for the simulation and detection of CE relations.
CE simulation is most suitable for the analysis of non-numerical data (conventional maps, texts). As numerical data can be converted into qualitative data,
this approach is also applicable to the analysis of heterogeneous data. In the case
of only numerical data, its use without preliminary classification methods as developed in multivariate mathematical statistics is not likely to be reasonable.
CE simulation is intended for the study of complicated natural systems to
which the system climate-ocean-sediments also belongs. With respect to this
system it is assumed that: (1) all three components of the system are compound,
consisting of more simple ones (e.g., climate includes the seasonal distribution
of rain and snow, type of atmospheric circulation; the ocean is characterized by
salinity, temperature, currents; sediments are represented by granulometric
composition, velocity of sedimentation); (2) any simple sedimentation phenomenon (a property of sediments) may be considered as an effect of some climatic
and (or) oceanic phenomena which are possible causes; (3) some sediment
properties are perhaps convergent, that is, the same property might have been
arisen under different combinations of climatic and oceanic phenomena. Further, with the term causes, the term climatic (oceanic) factors is also used.
As has been proved [3], the existence of CE relations between phenomena is
expressed by the presence in a data file of certain logical dependencies, which
are represented by Boolean algebra functions, and to reveal them, the shape at
System Climate-Ocean-Sediments
S. V. Sirotinskaya
1
Introduction
The mathematical simulation of cause-and-effect relations (CE relations) in the
system climate-ocean-sediments considered in this chapter is based on the ideas
of the English logician J.S.Mill [1], proposed in the 19 th century. He made the
first known attempt to apply tools of logic to the detection of CE relations between phenomena described by propositions. However he considered only the
simplest cases, only one cause and one effect. Unlike Mill's investigations, the i.e.
cause-and -effect simulation (CE simulation) suggested here uses the concepts of
plurality and interaction which have arisen as a result of the study of complicated geological objects. Additionally, tools of formal logic, modern mathematical
logic [2,6] and computer processing of data [3,4] are also employed for the simulation and detection of CE relations.
CE simulation is most suitable for the analysis of non-numerical data (conventional maps, texts). As numerical data can be converted into qualitative data,
this approach is also applicable to the analysis of heterogeneous data. In the case
of only numerical data, its use without preliminary classification methods as developed in multivariate mathematical statistics is not likely to be reasonable.
CE simulation is intended for the study of complicated natural systems to
which the system climate-ocean-sediments also belongs. With respect to this
system it is assumed that: (1) all three components of the system are compound,
consisting of more simple ones (e.g., climate includes the seasonal distribution
of rain and snow, type of atmospheric circulation; the ocean is characterized by
salinity, temperature, currents; sediments are represented by granulometric
composition, velocity of sedimentation); (2) any simple sedimentation phenomenon (a property of sediments) may be considered as an effect of some climatic
and (or) oceanic phenomena which are possible causes; (3) some sediment
properties are perhaps convergent, that is, the same property might have been
arisen under different combinations of climatic and oceanic phenomena. Further, with the term causes, the term climatic (oceanic) factors is also used.
As has been proved [3], the existence of CE relations between phenomena is
expressed by the presence in a data file of certain logical dependencies, which
are represented by Boolean algebra functions, and to reveal them, the shape at