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Appendices
Regulatory Context and Stakeholder Involvement: Rapid Changes
Requiring Immediate Responses
Variables relating to the context, stakeholder involvement, scientific and technological alliances and partnerships are evolving rapidly (the coming five to ten years
will be decisive), and the international regulatory framework for exploitation is
likely to be established in the coming years (negotiations in progress, applications
being submitted for international waters for hydrothermal sulphide sites).
These short and medium term changes in the context require a national stance,
and short term arbitration on certain questions (permits, alliances, demonstrators…)
in a situation of scarce resources (human, technical and financial). Geopolitical and
economic challenges are therefore high. Sharing of or access to scientific knowledge on the potential wealth of certain sites by stakeholders (States, economic players) is by no means neutral.
Changing Global Context: Major Trends and Global Scenarios
Unlike many long term foresight studies on resources (energy, agricultural resources…) for which changes in the global context are determining factors, the salience
of global changes in the study of marine mineral resources is indirect and sheds little
light on medium term choices. For instance, growing and lasting global tension over
certain metals, related to a limited supply and high demand, in a context of restricted
access (situation of rare earths in the medium term), leads first to increased value or
exploitation of neglected land-based resources, progress in terms of supply diversification by users and efforts in terms of recovery and substitution where possible.
These adaptations occur within time frames of five to ten or fifteen years. However, the development of marine mineral resources, over and above the hypothetical
nature of its capacity to respond to these tensions, is envisaged within a time frame
of fifteen to twenty years… thus beyond that of adaptations to land-based resources.
This means that global changes taken into account do not shed light directly on the
long term exploitation of marine mineral resources. They mainly provide information on the national context and stakeholder involvement.
Considering the possible futures for 2030 remains conceivable, yet the construction of trajectories for the national strategy is a more delicate task. For this reason,
the scenario-building work was restricted to three avenues: global changes, context
of marine mineral resources (stakeholder involvement) and conditions of development of a national strategy.
Between the strategic gamble on the future and the option value, the joint work
prioritised the second approach. This consisted of studying the provisions that leave
the future open to the development of marine mineral resources, in fields which appear liable to generate the most value, in the widest sense: economic, ecological and
heritage value. Classic prospective techniques (variable by variable analysis, scenarios method, impact of scenarios on the subject, challenges, possible trajectories)
are able to deal with “risky environments” (several possible states, comprehensive
Appendices
Regulatory Context and Stakeholder Involvement: Rapid Changes
Requiring Immediate Responses
Variables relating to the context, stakeholder involvement, scientific and technological alliances and partnerships are evolving rapidly (the coming five to ten years
will be decisive), and the international regulatory framework for exploitation is
likely to be established in the coming years (negotiations in progress, applications
being submitted for international waters for hydrothermal sulphide sites).
These short and medium term changes in the context require a national stance,
and short term arbitration on certain questions (permits, alliances, demonstrators…)
in a situation of scarce resources (human, technical and financial). Geopolitical and
economic challenges are therefore high. Sharing of or access to scientific knowledge on the potential wealth of certain sites by stakeholders (States, economic players) is by no means neutral.
Changing Global Context: Major Trends and Global Scenarios
Unlike many long term foresight studies on resources (energy, agricultural resources…) for which changes in the global context are determining factors, the salience
of global changes in the study of marine mineral resources is indirect and sheds little
light on medium term choices. For instance, growing and lasting global tension over
certain metals, related to a limited supply and high demand, in a context of restricted
access (situation of rare earths in the medium term), leads first to increased value or
exploitation of neglected land-based resources, progress in terms of supply diversification by users and efforts in terms of recovery and substitution where possible.
These adaptations occur within time frames of five to ten or fifteen years. However, the development of marine mineral resources, over and above the hypothetical
nature of its capacity to respond to these tensions, is envisaged within a time frame
of fifteen to twenty years… thus beyond that of adaptations to land-based resources.
This means that global changes taken into account do not shed light directly on the
long term exploitation of marine mineral resources. They mainly provide information on the national context and stakeholder involvement.
Considering the possible futures for 2030 remains conceivable, yet the construction of trajectories for the national strategy is a more delicate task. For this reason,
the scenario-building work was restricted to three avenues: global changes, context
of marine mineral resources (stakeholder involvement) and conditions of development of a national strategy.
Between the strategic gamble on the future and the option value, the joint work
prioritised the second approach. This consisted of studying the provisions that leave
the future open to the development of marine mineral resources, in fields which appear liable to generate the most value, in the widest sense: economic, ecological and
heritage value. Classic prospective techniques (variable by variable analysis, scenarios method, impact of scenarios on the subject, challenges, possible trajectories)
are able to deal with “risky environments” (several possible states, comprehensive