121
Chapter 9
Conclusion
Yves Fouquet and Denis Lacroix
Y. Fouquet ()
Centre Bretagne, Laboratoire Géochimie Métallogénie,
Ifremer, CS 10070, 29280 Plouzané, France
e-mail: yves.fouquet@ifremer.fr
D. Lacroix
Station de Sète, Ifremer, avenue Jean Monnet, CS 30171,
34203 Sète Cedex, France
e-mail: denis.lacroix@ifremer.fr
The many foresight studies on the world’s situation by 2030, with the exception of
“disasters”, provide a number of robust contextual elements for this time frame. In
2030, nearly two thirds of the world population (over 8 billion) will live in Asia.
Europe with its 27 member countries, characterised by strong population ageing,
will only account for 6.5 % of the world population. Half of humanity will live in
cities and the “rich/poor” and “old/young” divides will deepen.
In economic terms, while the United States will continue to have the world’s
leading economy, Asia will surpass the European Union with 30 % of world trade
and will take scientific and technological supremacy. India and China will represent 20 % of world research, compared to 10 % in 2008. Knowledge and key technologies will relate to sustainable development (especially energy), adaptation to
climate change, health, security, including food security, and social sciences. The
convergence of recent technologies (nano and biotechnologies, IT, communication)
will generate revolutions in all fields, hence a major role for science in the structuring and rapid evolution of societies. Pressure on materials and metals (copper, rare
earths…) is set to rise, in connection with electronics: in 1980, an electronic chip
contained 10 metals, today it contains 60! Renewable energies are also set to consume large quantities of these rare metals.
One of the major challenges will therefore be access to mineral resources due to
the generalised rise in demand (in particular mineral ores) and the risk of damage to
the ecosystems affected by mining. All major countries, including France, are now
confronted with the question of the security of their “strategic” minerals supply.
Risks of “economic wars” on resources already exist, as revealed by the recent rare
earth availability crisis on the global market, of which China holds a 95 % share.
Y. Fouquet, D. Lacroix (eds.), Deep Marine Mineral Resources,
DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-8563-1_9, © Éditions Quæ 2014
Chapter 9
Conclusion
Yves Fouquet and Denis Lacroix
Y. Fouquet ()
Centre Bretagne, Laboratoire Géochimie Métallogénie,
Ifremer, CS 10070, 29280 Plouzané, France
e-mail: yves.fouquet@ifremer.fr
D. Lacroix
Station de Sète, Ifremer, avenue Jean Monnet, CS 30171,
34203 Sète Cedex, France
e-mail: denis.lacroix@ifremer.fr
The many foresight studies on the world’s situation by 2030, with the exception of
“disasters”, provide a number of robust contextual elements for this time frame. In
2030, nearly two thirds of the world population (over 8 billion) will live in Asia.
Europe with its 27 member countries, characterised by strong population ageing,
will only account for 6.5 % of the world population. Half of humanity will live in
cities and the “rich/poor” and “old/young” divides will deepen.
In economic terms, while the United States will continue to have the world’s
leading economy, Asia will surpass the European Union with 30 % of world trade
and will take scientific and technological supremacy. India and China will represent 20 % of world research, compared to 10 % in 2008. Knowledge and key technologies will relate to sustainable development (especially energy), adaptation to
climate change, health, security, including food security, and social sciences. The
convergence of recent technologies (nano and biotechnologies, IT, communication)
will generate revolutions in all fields, hence a major role for science in the structuring and rapid evolution of societies. Pressure on materials and metals (copper, rare
earths…) is set to rise, in connection with electronics: in 1980, an electronic chip
contained 10 metals, today it contains 60! Renewable energies are also set to consume large quantities of these rare metals.
One of the major challenges will therefore be access to mineral resources due to
the generalised rise in demand (in particular mineral ores) and the risk of damage to
the ecosystems affected by mining. All major countries, including France, are now
confronted with the question of the security of their “strategic” minerals supply.
Risks of “economic wars” on resources already exist, as revealed by the recent rare
earth availability crisis on the global market, of which China holds a 95 % share.
Y. Fouquet, D. Lacroix (eds.), Deep Marine Mineral Resources,
DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-8563-1_9, © Éditions Quæ 2014