499
Figure 9. Temperature underforecast and impact on bid load. The shortfall of nearly 5000
MW of generation caused the ISO to buy costly “on spot” power.
Cal ISO Mean Daily Forecast Error
Cal ISO Mean Daily Forecast Error
-Delta breeze and weather/load forecast errors contribute to major errors in
prediction of Delta Breeze effects.
-Delta breeze is defined as the conditions when the wind speed is > 12
knots and the direction is between 190 degrees and 280 degrees.
-Delta Breeze can change load by 500MW
-Direct Costs: 250k per breeze day; 40 events per year
-An over forecast problem
Figure 10. California sea breeze impact on load forecast error and resultant fiscal loss.
OCEAN FORECAST FOR ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT
Figure 9. Temperature underforecast and impact on bid load. The shortfall of nearly 5000
MW of generation caused the ISO to buy costly “on spot” power.
Cal ISO Mean Daily Forecast Error
Cal ISO Mean Daily Forecast Error
-Delta breeze and weather/load forecast errors contribute to major errors in
prediction of Delta Breeze effects.
-Delta breeze is defined as the conditions when the wind speed is > 12
knots and the direction is between 190 degrees and 280 degrees.
-Delta Breeze can change load by 500MW
-Direct Costs: 250k per breeze day; 40 events per year
-An over forecast problem
Figure 10. California sea breeze impact on load forecast error and resultant fiscal loss.
OCEAN FORECAST FOR ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT