19.10 A Climate-Correlated Chronology
341
19.10 A Climate-Correlated Chronology
Considering the correlations made between the El Niño events and long-distance
voyaging in Table 19.1, and the pulses of El Niño activity and voyaging activity in
the Pacific visually represented in Fig. 19.1, it is perhaps not unreasonable to claim
that the greater the severity of an El Niño event, the more likely it is to be associated
with a major navigational event. The estimate for the beginning of southern migrations to Hawaii during the El Niño of AD 1096 is an obvious example. In the list
of possible correlations we present in Table 19.1, two events stand out as the most
likely pillars for the chronology we propose: the 1200 level 5+ El Niño as a marker
for the introduction of the kumara to New Zealand by Hoaki and Taukata and the
1230 level 5 El Niño which triggered the migrations led by Kahukura in tropical
Polynesia described in Chapter 18. These two events occur close to the genealogical
estimates for the individuals involved. The certain date for Paikea associated with
the total solar eclipse of 1383 can be thought of as a third chronological marker,
with the date of 1403 for the Heke, associated with a level 4 El Niño, a fourth.
To these dates we can add the earlier pillars for our Pacific chronology: the dates
for the explorers Ui-te-Rangiora (689) and Te Arutanga-a-Nuku (967) and for the
beginning of southern migrations to Hawaii in 1096. All these dates, like those for
the Navigators’ Line, are correlated with the severest levels of El Niño and in the
case of the Antarctic explorers with strong El Niño clusters. These seven dates bring
new chronological clarity to the history of voyaging activity both in the Medieval
Climatic Optimum and in the second half of the first millennium AD, which Smith
saw as a period of extensive exploration. Chronological information provided from
the mean and standard deviation of the generation length of the long Rarotongan line
provides a first-approximation guideline also in Chapter 20. The importance of this
line, which spans 1,770 years, and the robustness and relevance of its generational
estimates are discussed in that chapter.
Figure 19.1 also shows that Maru, who is said to have voyaged to New Zealand
from Eastern Polynesia, may have been supported in his voyaging by a level 4
El Niño in 1244. His nephew and adopted heir Tangiia might have been supported
by a Level 3 El Niño in 1294. It is conceivable that this El Niño might have assisted
Tangiia’s return voyage from Indonesia after his defeat and the death of his sons
and his voyage to Easter Island to bring his adopted son to Rarotonga. But these
correlations of voyaging activity involve less severe El Niño events and are not as
close to generational estimates.
Figure 19.1 shows that in the 550-year period from AD 850 to the Heke, there are
four level 5 and two level 5+ ENSO events. The level 5 El Niño of 903 is linked with
famine at the time of Hema’s birth, that of 1096 with the southern incursions into
Hawaii, the third in 1230 with Kahukura’s migrations. The first level 5+ El Niño in
967 is linked with Arutanga-a-Nuku’s Antarctic voyage and the second with Hoaki
and Taukata’s voyage to New Zealand. This leaves only the 1144 level 5 El Niño
without a correlation.
Figure 19.1 shows the strongest El Niño support for long-distance voyaging in
the period AD 650–1008, the time, as we have noted, which Smith saw as the time
341
19.10 A Climate-Correlated Chronology
Considering the correlations made between the El Niño events and long-distance
voyaging in Table 19.1, and the pulses of El Niño activity and voyaging activity in
the Pacific visually represented in Fig. 19.1, it is perhaps not unreasonable to claim
that the greater the severity of an El Niño event, the more likely it is to be associated
with a major navigational event. The estimate for the beginning of southern migrations to Hawaii during the El Niño of AD 1096 is an obvious example. In the list
of possible correlations we present in Table 19.1, two events stand out as the most
likely pillars for the chronology we propose: the 1200 level 5+ El Niño as a marker
for the introduction of the kumara to New Zealand by Hoaki and Taukata and the
1230 level 5 El Niño which triggered the migrations led by Kahukura in tropical
Polynesia described in Chapter 18. These two events occur close to the genealogical
estimates for the individuals involved. The certain date for Paikea associated with
the total solar eclipse of 1383 can be thought of as a third chronological marker,
with the date of 1403 for the Heke, associated with a level 4 El Niño, a fourth.
To these dates we can add the earlier pillars for our Pacific chronology: the dates
for the explorers Ui-te-Rangiora (689) and Te Arutanga-a-Nuku (967) and for the
beginning of southern migrations to Hawaii in 1096. All these dates, like those for
the Navigators’ Line, are correlated with the severest levels of El Niño and in the
case of the Antarctic explorers with strong El Niño clusters. These seven dates bring
new chronological clarity to the history of voyaging activity both in the Medieval
Climatic Optimum and in the second half of the first millennium AD, which Smith
saw as a period of extensive exploration. Chronological information provided from
the mean and standard deviation of the generation length of the long Rarotongan line
provides a first-approximation guideline also in Chapter 20. The importance of this
line, which spans 1,770 years, and the robustness and relevance of its generational
estimates are discussed in that chapter.
Figure 19.1 also shows that Maru, who is said to have voyaged to New Zealand
from Eastern Polynesia, may have been supported in his voyaging by a level 4
El Niño in 1244. His nephew and adopted heir Tangiia might have been supported
by a Level 3 El Niño in 1294. It is conceivable that this El Niño might have assisted
Tangiia’s return voyage from Indonesia after his defeat and the death of his sons
and his voyage to Easter Island to bring his adopted son to Rarotonga. But these
correlations of voyaging activity involve less severe El Niño events and are not as
close to generational estimates.
Figure 19.1 shows that in the 550-year period from AD 850 to the Heke, there are
four level 5 and two level 5+ ENSO events. The level 5 El Niño of 903 is linked with
famine at the time of Hema’s birth, that of 1096 with the southern incursions into
Hawaii, the third in 1230 with Kahukura’s migrations. The first level 5+ El Niño in
967 is linked with Arutanga-a-Nuku’s Antarctic voyage and the second with Hoaki
and Taukata’s voyage to New Zealand. This leaves only the 1144 level 5 El Niño
without a correlation.
Figure 19.1 shows the strongest El Niño support for long-distance voyaging in
the period AD 650–1008, the time, as we have noted, which Smith saw as the time