10
1 Introduction
In Part III we demonstrate the extent to which the history of oceanic migration
in the Pacific, in the first millennium AD and in the Medieval Climatic Optimum,
was climate-modulated or climate-driven. We use El Niño low Nile flood proxy
data, in combination with genealogical data, for example, to precisely date the first
southern migrations to Hawaii to 1096, to date migrations within Eastern Polynesia
led by Kahukura to 1230 and to date to 1200 the voyage of the Eastern Polynesian
navigators, Hoaki and Taukata, which brought the kumara to New Zealand. All three
events are linked to rare extreme El Niño events.
More remarkably, through study of two ancient genealogies preserved in the isolated Chatham Islands, we are able to propose a date for the first migration to New
Zealand, a date that is supported by the power law analysis of Part II. This migration
also is linked to a rare extreme El Niño event.
For events in the second half of the first millennium AD and in the Medieval
Climatic Optimum (AD 1100–1400) we are able to achieve precise datings for
major migrations using El Niño low Nile flood proxy data with an annual resolution. Dating these events precisely provides pillars for the chronology we
sketch for climate-driven long-distance migrations in the southern Pacific triggered by El Niño-induced drought. Studying events for a period before data for
low Nile floods was recorded, we rely on high-resolution climate proxy data
from another source, a source that has proved equally effective for establishing a
chronology for the climate-modulated history of the Lapita period and of the first
millennium BC.
Analysis of titanium concentrations in sediments from Lake Huguang Maar in
southeastern coastal China provides high-resolution dating for climate, volcanic
and cometary events. Dating estimates from this source parallel and match those
for events in the limited period covered by the El Niño low Nile flood proxy data.
The chronological range of the Huguang Maar climate proxy, however, extends far
beyond that of the low Nile flood data: it provides estimates for events over a span
of 16,000 years.
A clear pattern emerges from our attempt to create a robust chronology through
combining genealogical data with climate proxy data. This pattern reveals the extent
to which the migration and voyaging history of the Pacific was climate-driven. For
the period stretching from the first migration to New Zealand, which we establish
in Chapter 20 to be close to 3,400 years ago, to the Heke, the last migration to
New Zealand, which we date to AD 1403, most major migrations and significant
voyaging activity in the Pacific (for which we can derive reliable estimates from
carefully preserved genealogies) can be correlated with rare extreme climate events.
As these climate events can be precisely dated, often to within a year, from climate
proxy data, this opens new windows on the past. Sharp chronological estimates can
be made for major events and the potential of carefully preserved genealogies as
historical sources recognized.
In Part I, as the title of our book proclaims, study of oceanography and especially
of the oceanographic history of the West Pacific Warm Pool, proves to be a key to the
paths, sequence, timing and range of oceanic migration in two oceans. Parts II and
III demonstrate a matching relevance for global climate history in its contribution to
1 Introduction
In Part III we demonstrate the extent to which the history of oceanic migration
in the Pacific, in the first millennium AD and in the Medieval Climatic Optimum,
was climate-modulated or climate-driven. We use El Niño low Nile flood proxy
data, in combination with genealogical data, for example, to precisely date the first
southern migrations to Hawaii to 1096, to date migrations within Eastern Polynesia
led by Kahukura to 1230 and to date to 1200 the voyage of the Eastern Polynesian
navigators, Hoaki and Taukata, which brought the kumara to New Zealand. All three
events are linked to rare extreme El Niño events.
More remarkably, through study of two ancient genealogies preserved in the isolated Chatham Islands, we are able to propose a date for the first migration to New
Zealand, a date that is supported by the power law analysis of Part II. This migration
also is linked to a rare extreme El Niño event.
For events in the second half of the first millennium AD and in the Medieval
Climatic Optimum (AD 1100–1400) we are able to achieve precise datings for
major migrations using El Niño low Nile flood proxy data with an annual resolution. Dating these events precisely provides pillars for the chronology we
sketch for climate-driven long-distance migrations in the southern Pacific triggered by El Niño-induced drought. Studying events for a period before data for
low Nile floods was recorded, we rely on high-resolution climate proxy data
from another source, a source that has proved equally effective for establishing a
chronology for the climate-modulated history of the Lapita period and of the first
millennium BC.
Analysis of titanium concentrations in sediments from Lake Huguang Maar in
southeastern coastal China provides high-resolution dating for climate, volcanic
and cometary events. Dating estimates from this source parallel and match those
for events in the limited period covered by the El Niño low Nile flood proxy data.
The chronological range of the Huguang Maar climate proxy, however, extends far
beyond that of the low Nile flood data: it provides estimates for events over a span
of 16,000 years.
A clear pattern emerges from our attempt to create a robust chronology through
combining genealogical data with climate proxy data. This pattern reveals the extent
to which the migration and voyaging history of the Pacific was climate-driven. For
the period stretching from the first migration to New Zealand, which we establish
in Chapter 20 to be close to 3,400 years ago, to the Heke, the last migration to
New Zealand, which we date to AD 1403, most major migrations and significant
voyaging activity in the Pacific (for which we can derive reliable estimates from
carefully preserved genealogies) can be correlated with rare extreme climate events.
As these climate events can be precisely dated, often to within a year, from climate
proxy data, this opens new windows on the past. Sharp chronological estimates can
be made for major events and the potential of carefully preserved genealogies as
historical sources recognized.
In Part I, as the title of our book proclaims, study of oceanography and especially
of the oceanographic history of the West Pacific Warm Pool, proves to be a key to the
paths, sequence, timing and range of oceanic migration in two oceans. Parts II and
III demonstrate a matching relevance for global climate history in its contribution to