1.5 Some of the Implications of a Spice Island-Based Polynesian Prehistory
9
Our case for early first settlement of New Zealand rests centrally on a demonstration of the demographic implausibility of a late settlement in the context of the
population numbers needed for the building and defence of Maori Little Ice Age
hill-forts Maori pa (hill-forts) (pa). In Part II we set out to establish a mathematically robust palaeodemography for New Zealand which is compatible with estimates
from field archaeology, compatible with evidence from a revised analysis of skeletal material [12], and compatible with evidence for climate-driven population losses
worldwide during this period.
Also we demonstrate a powerful new approach capable of removing uncertainties
about New Zealand’s first settlement. A power law analysis of the rank size distribution of New Zealand pa makes it possible to estimate the founder population at first
settlement, to provide an estimate for the likely date of the first settlement itself,
to estimate an average population growth rate from first settlement to AD 1445,
and to estimate the population of the North Island at the beginning of the Little Ice
Age. In the light of the demographic analysis of Part II, it is possible to show the
implausibility of a 12th or 13th century first settlement date for New Zealand, which
requires for its substantiation consistently maintained high population growth rates
throughout the Little Ice Age. We show that a late first settlement is incompatible
with evidence from skeletal analysis for very severe population decline rates in this
period, with the high population capacity of New Zealand pa and with an oral history
that records extensive earlier migration.
In Part III we sketch a chronology for Polynesian history through an analysis of
genealogies in the light of El Niño low Nile flood proxy data. Statistical analysis
of genealogies relating to the Heke, the last migration to reach New Zealand from
Eastern Polynesia in the Medieval Climatic Optimum, enables us to establish the
historicity of this event. A solar eclipse and El Niño data provides a likely dating
estimate.
Late 19th and early 20th century prehistorians of European descent sought to
generate a western chronology by creating a synthesis of the oral traditions they had
so carefully recorded. In Part III we sketch a chronology for Maori and Polynesian
prehistory by moving outside the traditions themselves to explore the interface
between significant events recorded in tradition and available scientific means for
calibrating those events in terms of a western chronology. We have called on the
two most obvious means for achieving this: solar eclipses and high-resolution climate proxy data. Even a few instances in which the dating of events recorded
in tradition can be established with certainty can create chronological markers
Chronological marker strong enough to illuminate prized genealogies that in some
cases stretch back from historical times over millennia. One of the surprising consequences of our approach – and an indicator of the authenticity and reliability of
the important genealogies we consider – is the chronological consistency of events
in intersecting genealogies. Combining chronological information inherent in the
genealogies that we study with independent astronomical and climatic evidence confirms the historical value and reliability of carefully preserved Maori and Polynesian
traditions.
9
Our case for early first settlement of New Zealand rests centrally on a demonstration of the demographic implausibility of a late settlement in the context of the
population numbers needed for the building and defence of Maori Little Ice Age
hill-forts Maori pa (hill-forts) (pa). In Part II we set out to establish a mathematically robust palaeodemography for New Zealand which is compatible with estimates
from field archaeology, compatible with evidence from a revised analysis of skeletal material [12], and compatible with evidence for climate-driven population losses
worldwide during this period.
Also we demonstrate a powerful new approach capable of removing uncertainties
about New Zealand’s first settlement. A power law analysis of the rank size distribution of New Zealand pa makes it possible to estimate the founder population at first
settlement, to provide an estimate for the likely date of the first settlement itself,
to estimate an average population growth rate from first settlement to AD 1445,
and to estimate the population of the North Island at the beginning of the Little Ice
Age. In the light of the demographic analysis of Part II, it is possible to show the
implausibility of a 12th or 13th century first settlement date for New Zealand, which
requires for its substantiation consistently maintained high population growth rates
throughout the Little Ice Age. We show that a late first settlement is incompatible
with evidence from skeletal analysis for very severe population decline rates in this
period, with the high population capacity of New Zealand pa and with an oral history
that records extensive earlier migration.
In Part III we sketch a chronology for Polynesian history through an analysis of
genealogies in the light of El Niño low Nile flood proxy data. Statistical analysis
of genealogies relating to the Heke, the last migration to reach New Zealand from
Eastern Polynesia in the Medieval Climatic Optimum, enables us to establish the
historicity of this event. A solar eclipse and El Niño data provides a likely dating
estimate.
Late 19th and early 20th century prehistorians of European descent sought to
generate a western chronology by creating a synthesis of the oral traditions they had
so carefully recorded. In Part III we sketch a chronology for Maori and Polynesian
prehistory by moving outside the traditions themselves to explore the interface
between significant events recorded in tradition and available scientific means for
calibrating those events in terms of a western chronology. We have called on the
two most obvious means for achieving this: solar eclipses and high-resolution climate proxy data. Even a few instances in which the dating of events recorded
in tradition can be established with certainty can create chronological markers
Chronological marker strong enough to illuminate prized genealogies that in some
cases stretch back from historical times over millennia. One of the surprising consequences of our approach – and an indicator of the authenticity and reliability of
the important genealogies we consider – is the chronological consistency of events
in intersecting genealogies. Combining chronological information inherent in the
genealogies that we study with independent astronomical and climatic evidence confirms the historical value and reliability of carefully preserved Maori and Polynesian
traditions.