62
G.-M. Lange
Manufacturing, transportation, and electricity. Projections for manufacturing include increases in energy efficiency, reduction in water requirements, and the introduction of measures to reduce the emission of water pollutants in line with current or
likely future regulations. In some sectors the energy mix will change; coal, gas, or purchased electricity will substitute for oil, presently the most widely used energy source.
Motor vehicle fuel efficiency increases by 25% under S1 and 50% under S2.
In Electricity, transmission and distribution losses are reduced, thermal conversion
efficiency increases, and the fuel mix shifts. Under S1, oil, the fuel most commonly used
at this time, is largely replaced by coal and gas. Under S2, a greater share of natural gas
is used, burned in highly efficient, gas combined cycle generators. All other sectors not
subject to case studies are projected to improve energy efficiency between 1985 and
2020 by an average of 20% through a variety of means from simple improvements in
energy "housekeeping", such as regular tune-ups, to more complex methods like waste
heat recovery and cogeneration of electricity.
Household energy use. Households accounted for 20% of commercial fuel consumption in 1985. In the future, commercial energy use will increase due to population and
income growth and the substitution of cleaner and more convenient commercial fuels
and electricity for non-commercial fuels. At the same time households will increase
the shares of natural gas and coal (mostly in briquette form), reducing the share in fuel
consumption of petroleum, currently the most widely used commercial fuel. Moderating this trend toward increasing energy use are substantial improvements in energy
efficiency of goods used by households. Motor vehicle fuel efficiency increases 25%
under S1 and 50% under S2 and electrical appliances are 10% more efficient under SI
and 25% under S2. Even with these efficiency gains, households are projected to use
more than 20 times the electricity used in 1985 under SI and 15 times the 1985 level
under S2. Fossil fuel use increases more than four-fold under SI and just under threefold under S2.
Table 3.3. GDP, investment, and employment for Indonesia in 1985 and 2020 under moderate growth
scenario (Source: Duchin et aI. 1993)
1985
2020
GOP (10 12 Rps. in 1985 prices)
98
542
Per capita GOP (10 3 Rps. in 1985 prices)
611
2065
Investment (% of total GOP)
25.3
23.3"
Employment, full-time equivalent, 10 6
54
145
Employment as a share of labor force
0.80
1.08
Sectoral distribution of employment (%)
Agriculture
53
26
Manufacturing
13
23
Services
33
51
" average over the period; figures for employment and investment are virtually the same for scenarios 1 and 2 with moderate growth. Figures for the high growth are not reported since they were
considered not feasible.
G.-M. Lange
Manufacturing, transportation, and electricity. Projections for manufacturing include increases in energy efficiency, reduction in water requirements, and the introduction of measures to reduce the emission of water pollutants in line with current or
likely future regulations. In some sectors the energy mix will change; coal, gas, or purchased electricity will substitute for oil, presently the most widely used energy source.
Motor vehicle fuel efficiency increases by 25% under S1 and 50% under S2.
In Electricity, transmission and distribution losses are reduced, thermal conversion
efficiency increases, and the fuel mix shifts. Under S1, oil, the fuel most commonly used
at this time, is largely replaced by coal and gas. Under S2, a greater share of natural gas
is used, burned in highly efficient, gas combined cycle generators. All other sectors not
subject to case studies are projected to improve energy efficiency between 1985 and
2020 by an average of 20% through a variety of means from simple improvements in
energy "housekeeping", such as regular tune-ups, to more complex methods like waste
heat recovery and cogeneration of electricity.
Household energy use. Households accounted for 20% of commercial fuel consumption in 1985. In the future, commercial energy use will increase due to population and
income growth and the substitution of cleaner and more convenient commercial fuels
and electricity for non-commercial fuels. At the same time households will increase
the shares of natural gas and coal (mostly in briquette form), reducing the share in fuel
consumption of petroleum, currently the most widely used commercial fuel. Moderating this trend toward increasing energy use are substantial improvements in energy
efficiency of goods used by households. Motor vehicle fuel efficiency increases 25%
under S1 and 50% under S2 and electrical appliances are 10% more efficient under SI
and 25% under S2. Even with these efficiency gains, households are projected to use
more than 20 times the electricity used in 1985 under SI and 15 times the 1985 level
under S2. Fossil fuel use increases more than four-fold under SI and just under threefold under S2.
Table 3.3. GDP, investment, and employment for Indonesia in 1985 and 2020 under moderate growth
scenario (Source: Duchin et aI. 1993)
1985
2020
GOP (10 12 Rps. in 1985 prices)
98
542
Per capita GOP (10 3 Rps. in 1985 prices)
611
2065
Investment (% of total GOP)
25.3
23.3"
Employment, full-time equivalent, 10 6
54
145
Employment as a share of labor force
0.80
1.08
Sectoral distribution of employment (%)
Agriculture
53
26
Manufacturing
13
23
Services
33
51
" average over the period; figures for employment and investment are virtually the same for scenarios 1 and 2 with moderate growth. Figures for the high growth are not reported since they were
considered not feasible.