G.-M.Lange
Food self sufficiency. Over the next 25 years, economic growth will intensify competition for land. Rice, the staple crop of Indonesia is extremely water-intensive, accounting for 90% of current water use. Even moderate increases in rice production would
require large amounts of water and some increase in land area at a time when some
the most fertile paddy land is being converted for residential, industrial and commercial use, especially land near urban areas. As incomes increase, the average diet can be
expected to include more meat, fruit, and vegetables. Increases in livestock production
require a great deal of land either directly if livestock is raised on rangeland or indirectly to provide the feed if livestock is raised on feedlots.
Forestry and the paper industry. Indonesia accounts for a significant share of
the world's remaining rain forests. Its forests are barely able to meet current levels
of flemand. The scale of operation of wood-using industries over the next 25 years
is likely to place demands on Indonesia's forestry sector which would decimate its
forests, especially with a large expansion of the pulp and paper industry. Plantation
forests may be able to alleviate the timber shortage and allow the preservation of natural forests.
Water and air pollution. The provision of clean water for household use and for
industry is also a major objective over the next 25 years. While Indonesia has abundant water resources, there are large seasonal variations in water availability and it
is already in short supply in some areas. Both water pollution and air pollution have
become a major threat both to human health and to industrial productivity in urban
areas. Increasing urbanization of the population and the continued concentration of
industry in urban areas over the next 25 years make dealing with these problems a priority.
The issues raised by Indonesia's development strategies require an analytical framework that is multi-sectoral and cumulative; the former in order to identify spillover or
intersectoral effects and the potential conflict for resources or inconsistencies among
sectoral objectives; the latter in order to keep track of the cumulative economy-wide
environmental degradation and demands on the resource base. The development strategies and environmental concerns determine the kinds of variables to be included in
the NRA and the type of economic model to be used.
The NRA include the major constraints to development in Indonesia: water, land
suitable for different crops and forests, and factors affecting the quality of water and
land: soil erosion and three types of water pollution, Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD),
Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), and suspended solids. Three types of air pollutants
are also included, carbon dioxide (C02), sulphur dioxide (S02)' and nitrogen oxides
(NOX> for each economic sector and for households. A 30-sector dynamic input-output model was used to represent the economy, based on the dynamic model developed
by (Duchin and Szyld 1985) and implem~nted in (Leontief and Duchin 1986). NRA were
constructed for the base years of 1985 aI\d 1990 (see Table 3.2). The NRA were converted
to sectoral parameters for using with the 10 model and NRA were projected under
alternative scenarios for the year 2020.
The impact of the economy on the environment will depend in part upon the technologies in use in each sector. Four scenarios were constructed to represent alter-
Food self sufficiency. Over the next 25 years, economic growth will intensify competition for land. Rice, the staple crop of Indonesia is extremely water-intensive, accounting for 90% of current water use. Even moderate increases in rice production would
require large amounts of water and some increase in land area at a time when some
the most fertile paddy land is being converted for residential, industrial and commercial use, especially land near urban areas. As incomes increase, the average diet can be
expected to include more meat, fruit, and vegetables. Increases in livestock production
require a great deal of land either directly if livestock is raised on rangeland or indirectly to provide the feed if livestock is raised on feedlots.
Forestry and the paper industry. Indonesia accounts for a significant share of
the world's remaining rain forests. Its forests are barely able to meet current levels
of flemand. The scale of operation of wood-using industries over the next 25 years
is likely to place demands on Indonesia's forestry sector which would decimate its
forests, especially with a large expansion of the pulp and paper industry. Plantation
forests may be able to alleviate the timber shortage and allow the preservation of natural forests.
Water and air pollution. The provision of clean water for household use and for
industry is also a major objective over the next 25 years. While Indonesia has abundant water resources, there are large seasonal variations in water availability and it
is already in short supply in some areas. Both water pollution and air pollution have
become a major threat both to human health and to industrial productivity in urban
areas. Increasing urbanization of the population and the continued concentration of
industry in urban areas over the next 25 years make dealing with these problems a priority.
The issues raised by Indonesia's development strategies require an analytical framework that is multi-sectoral and cumulative; the former in order to identify spillover or
intersectoral effects and the potential conflict for resources or inconsistencies among
sectoral objectives; the latter in order to keep track of the cumulative economy-wide
environmental degradation and demands on the resource base. The development strategies and environmental concerns determine the kinds of variables to be included in
the NRA and the type of economic model to be used.
The NRA include the major constraints to development in Indonesia: water, land
suitable for different crops and forests, and factors affecting the quality of water and
land: soil erosion and three types of water pollution, Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD),
Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), and suspended solids. Three types of air pollutants
are also included, carbon dioxide (C02), sulphur dioxide (S02)' and nitrogen oxides
(NOX> for each economic sector and for households. A 30-sector dynamic input-output model was used to represent the economy, based on the dynamic model developed
by (Duchin and Szyld 1985) and implem~nted in (Leontief and Duchin 1986). NRA were
constructed for the base years of 1985 aI\d 1990 (see Table 3.2). The NRA were converted
to sectoral parameters for using with the 10 model and NRA were projected under
alternative scenarios for the year 2020.
The impact of the economy on the environment will depend in part upon the technologies in use in each sector. Four scenarios were constructed to represent alter-