We consider that the Chandler wobble [26] with a period of 14 months and its
overtones can trigger this disturbance. However, the final determination of the
nature of this phenomenon is a task for the future research.
We adhere to the concept that the simplest explanation is the most correct. The
main advantage in adopting the new paradigm is a significant simplification of the
answers to many questions related to the problem of long-term effects. In particular,
there is no need to invent anything regarding telecommunication mechanisms in the
atmosphere. Under the new approach, all the features of the atmospheric circulation
that occur on the Earth during El Niño, including the origin of the El Niño phenomenon, are explained by the existence of the global atmospheric oscillations.
This approach is inter alia the most essential for the already mentioned synchronization of many regional oscillations with the events of El Niño.
It was shown in [27] that the global occurrences of the sea surface atmospheric
pressure anomaly differences along with the events of El Niño and La Niña, as
shown in Fig. 1 (top panel) are statistically significant. The significance of the
major part of these differences is at the 90% significance level. This testifies
objectively that the Global Oscillation shown in Fig. 1 can be considered statistically a very real phenomenon. Some papers devoted to the study of the El Niño
event, have similar results [20, 28]. The main difference here is in the setting of
priorities. Most of the researchers preferred to assume the El Niño event as the
primary; they interpreted the characteristic changes that occur simultaneously in
the remote areas of the Earth as the global response to these events. We believe that
the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation is the primary one, whereas the
El Niño event is a part of the GAO and one of its most notable consequences. We
want to emphasize that one of the main arguments among the others in favor of our
hypothesis is its simplicity and actuality in explaining many environmental changes
remotely accompanying the El Niño events.
Thus, we attempted to suggest a conceptual description of the multi-scale global
atmospheric oscillations, some distinct signs of which were implicitly detected in a
number of previous studies. The principal result of this work is the finding that
interannual and inter-decadal global atmospheric oscillations (GAO) are the main
governing causes of the actual short-period variability in the current climate. First of
all, the interannual GAO acts as a trigger mechanism for the El Niño events,
anticipating their occurrence of the anomalous temperature, atmospheric pressure
and wind conditions in the Indo-Pacific region. The crucial role of the inter-decadal
GAO is related to the fact that this shift in the climate system dynamics may lead to
a climate scenario transition both on the regional and, perhaps, on the global scale.
Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant
14-50-00095.
358
V. G. Neiman et al.
overtones can trigger this disturbance. However, the final determination of the
nature of this phenomenon is a task for the future research.
We adhere to the concept that the simplest explanation is the most correct. The
main advantage in adopting the new paradigm is a significant simplification of the
answers to many questions related to the problem of long-term effects. In particular,
there is no need to invent anything regarding telecommunication mechanisms in the
atmosphere. Under the new approach, all the features of the atmospheric circulation
that occur on the Earth during El Niño, including the origin of the El Niño phenomenon, are explained by the existence of the global atmospheric oscillations.
This approach is inter alia the most essential for the already mentioned synchronization of many regional oscillations with the events of El Niño.
It was shown in [27] that the global occurrences of the sea surface atmospheric
pressure anomaly differences along with the events of El Niño and La Niña, as
shown in Fig. 1 (top panel) are statistically significant. The significance of the
major part of these differences is at the 90% significance level. This testifies
objectively that the Global Oscillation shown in Fig. 1 can be considered statistically a very real phenomenon. Some papers devoted to the study of the El Niño
event, have similar results [20, 28]. The main difference here is in the setting of
priorities. Most of the researchers preferred to assume the El Niño event as the
primary; they interpreted the characteristic changes that occur simultaneously in
the remote areas of the Earth as the global response to these events. We believe that
the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation is the primary one, whereas the
El Niño event is a part of the GAO and one of its most notable consequences. We
want to emphasize that one of the main arguments among the others in favor of our
hypothesis is its simplicity and actuality in explaining many environmental changes
remotely accompanying the El Niño events.
Thus, we attempted to suggest a conceptual description of the multi-scale global
atmospheric oscillations, some distinct signs of which were implicitly detected in a
number of previous studies. The principal result of this work is the finding that
interannual and inter-decadal global atmospheric oscillations (GAO) are the main
governing causes of the actual short-period variability in the current climate. First of
all, the interannual GAO acts as a trigger mechanism for the El Niño events,
anticipating their occurrence of the anomalous temperature, atmospheric pressure
and wind conditions in the Indo-Pacific region. The crucial role of the inter-decadal
GAO is related to the fact that this shift in the climate system dynamics may lead to
a climate scenario transition both on the regional and, perhaps, on the global scale.
Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant
14-50-00095.
358
V. G. Neiman et al.