6
Nicholas C. Flemming
GOOS would be used, but must include ajustified estimate ofthe actual take-up of
the data by industry and regulatory authorities, and their ability to use the data and
information to make beneficial decisions. These considerations have been analysed by Weiher (1999) and Flemming (1999), and are further discussed by Brown
(2000) and Castelucci (2000).
The GOOS plans identify five modules of application, that is, sectors of the
marine user community which could benefit from improved forecasts and monitoring. The 5 modules are: Climate; Living Marine Resources; Ocean Services;
Health ofthe Ocean; and Coastal and ShelfSeas. During 1992, while the UNCED
Rio meeting was in session, there was a great deal of controversy about the economics of mitigating actions and preventative actions which might be carried out to
reduce the causes and impact of climate change. The principle risk or threat arising
from climate change will probably become seriously damaging in about 30-50
years due to the steady build up of anthropogenic "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere. Assuming a discount rate of the order of 7%, $1000 in 30 years time is
worth about $130 now, discounted over 50 years it is worth only $34 now. Applying these figures to the concept of GOOS produced an unfortunate effect, since
GOOS requires considerable initial investment in hardware, communications, and
data product distribution in its early stages. The potential benefits or disasters
avoided in 30-50 years time had to be of enormous financial scale to justify spending $millions now. Although the worst scenarios for c1imate change might justify
such expenditure if the disasters were certain, it is more difficult to make such a
justification when the disaster is an unquantifiable probability. Many publications
in the USA during 1992, the time ofthe Rio UNCED Conference, sought to show
that public expenditure on science or other projects to avoid or mitigate the impact
of climate change were a waste of money, because of the discount factor. It would
be better to wait, accept any damage that occurred, if it occurred, or fix it later. The
justification for GOOS was thus forced fuH circ1e back to the consideration of aH
possible economic and social benefits on every timescale from days to decades.
Many of these potential benefits are outlined in Chapter 17 of Agenda 21 (UN,
1992). The acute concern with climate change and global environmental change
had created the political cohesion and sense of common interest which gave GOOS
its popularity, but by late 1992 it was clear that all possible benefits must be aggregated to show how GOOS might produce benefits year by year. One of the key
medium-term benefits is in the prediction of seasonal and year-to-year climate
variability, such as the El Nifto-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This led to the successful conversion of the TOGA TAO array and the associated modelling system
into an operational forecasting system after the completion of the TOGA experiment.
If aH the short- to medium-term benefits from monitoring and predicting the
ocean and coastal seas provide a sufficient economic justification for GOOS, then
the continuous accumulation of data year after year will eventually produce the
long time-series and monitoring statistics which will permit the detection of climate change, and even prediction of climate change. The over-arching human
Nicholas C. Flemming
GOOS would be used, but must include ajustified estimate ofthe actual take-up of
the data by industry and regulatory authorities, and their ability to use the data and
information to make beneficial decisions. These considerations have been analysed by Weiher (1999) and Flemming (1999), and are further discussed by Brown
(2000) and Castelucci (2000).
The GOOS plans identify five modules of application, that is, sectors of the
marine user community which could benefit from improved forecasts and monitoring. The 5 modules are: Climate; Living Marine Resources; Ocean Services;
Health ofthe Ocean; and Coastal and ShelfSeas. During 1992, while the UNCED
Rio meeting was in session, there was a great deal of controversy about the economics of mitigating actions and preventative actions which might be carried out to
reduce the causes and impact of climate change. The principle risk or threat arising
from climate change will probably become seriously damaging in about 30-50
years due to the steady build up of anthropogenic "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere. Assuming a discount rate of the order of 7%, $1000 in 30 years time is
worth about $130 now, discounted over 50 years it is worth only $34 now. Applying these figures to the concept of GOOS produced an unfortunate effect, since
GOOS requires considerable initial investment in hardware, communications, and
data product distribution in its early stages. The potential benefits or disasters
avoided in 30-50 years time had to be of enormous financial scale to justify spending $millions now. Although the worst scenarios for c1imate change might justify
such expenditure if the disasters were certain, it is more difficult to make such a
justification when the disaster is an unquantifiable probability. Many publications
in the USA during 1992, the time ofthe Rio UNCED Conference, sought to show
that public expenditure on science or other projects to avoid or mitigate the impact
of climate change were a waste of money, because of the discount factor. It would
be better to wait, accept any damage that occurred, if it occurred, or fix it later. The
justification for GOOS was thus forced fuH circ1e back to the consideration of aH
possible economic and social benefits on every timescale from days to decades.
Many of these potential benefits are outlined in Chapter 17 of Agenda 21 (UN,
1992). The acute concern with climate change and global environmental change
had created the political cohesion and sense of common interest which gave GOOS
its popularity, but by late 1992 it was clear that all possible benefits must be aggregated to show how GOOS might produce benefits year by year. One of the key
medium-term benefits is in the prediction of seasonal and year-to-year climate
variability, such as the El Nifto-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This led to the successful conversion of the TOGA TAO array and the associated modelling system
into an operational forecasting system after the completion of the TOGA experiment.
If aH the short- to medium-term benefits from monitoring and predicting the
ocean and coastal seas provide a sufficient economic justification for GOOS, then
the continuous accumulation of data year after year will eventually produce the
long time-series and monitoring statistics which will permit the detection of climate change, and even prediction of climate change. The over-arching human