Strategic Planning for Operational Oceanography
5
During the 1980s scientific understanding of the ocean progressed rapidly, especially through the large scale integrative experiments such as TOGA, WOCE, and
JGOFS, which provide a picture ofthe way in which all the parts ofthe ocean interact on each other as a global machine. There are still many mysteries and uncertainties about processes in the ocean, but there was by 1990 the confidence that it
was at least possible to start constructing a scientifically designed observing
scheme which will provide data in a logical way, and with sufficient accuracy and
sample spacing to define the processes at work. If such a system starts by observing those factors which are best understood, (sea surface temperature field, wind
field, upper ocean currents, sea surface topography, upper ocean thermal structure,
floating sea ice, and sea surface wind-gravity wave spectrum), it willlead to a progressive improvement both of the observing scheme itself, and of the science
which will permit further improvements of the system. The key is to start off with
a firm scientific grounding, and this was provided by the Report on an Ocean
Observing System, prepared by the Ocean Observing System Development Panel
(OOSDP, 1995). The OOSDP was set up by the Committee for Climate Change in
the Ocean (CCCO) and the Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate
Research Programme (JSC). The OOSDP Report emphasises the physical variables required to detect or predict climate change, but many of the same observations would provide benefits in the shorter term also.
During the mid-1990s in the period after the 1992 Rio Convention, plans for
GOOS continued to evolve, while the Conventions and Treaties initiated at Rio
strengthened the demand for ocean observations at the globallevel. GOOS itself
was established by agreements between UN Agencies in late 1993. The Framework Climate Convention, the Convention on Biodiversity, and the Convention on
Sustainable Development all require greatly increased knowledge of ocean processes, and specific understanding of the present state of the ocean and the trends
of change through time. These issues were analysed in a meeting organised by
OECD in spring 1998 (OECD, 1998).
Although the most technically feasible components of GOOS are the physical
observations and predictions, the biological requirements are both scientifically
important and politically essential. Biological processes, particularly phytoplankton growth, strongly influence the carbon cyele and the penetration of light and
heat into the upper layers of the ocean. Biological productivity, water quality, and
public health issues are of vital public interest in the coastal zone. International
global science programmes such as JGOFS and GLOBEC (www.pml.ac.uk/
globec) provide some of the basic understanding needed in ecosystem modelling.
The potential cost of GOOS, or a regional component of GOOS, is a major obstaele to the development and implementation of GOOS, and the political and institutional commitment to investing in GOOS only occurs when it can be demonstrated
in a thoroughly sound analysis that the economic and social benefits from the use
of the data will exceed the costs by an acceptable multiple, using strict principles of
estimation, accounting, and discounting to net present value. Such calculations
must not be based on an idealised estimate of the way in which the data from
5
During the 1980s scientific understanding of the ocean progressed rapidly, especially through the large scale integrative experiments such as TOGA, WOCE, and
JGOFS, which provide a picture ofthe way in which all the parts ofthe ocean interact on each other as a global machine. There are still many mysteries and uncertainties about processes in the ocean, but there was by 1990 the confidence that it
was at least possible to start constructing a scientifically designed observing
scheme which will provide data in a logical way, and with sufficient accuracy and
sample spacing to define the processes at work. If such a system starts by observing those factors which are best understood, (sea surface temperature field, wind
field, upper ocean currents, sea surface topography, upper ocean thermal structure,
floating sea ice, and sea surface wind-gravity wave spectrum), it willlead to a progressive improvement both of the observing scheme itself, and of the science
which will permit further improvements of the system. The key is to start off with
a firm scientific grounding, and this was provided by the Report on an Ocean
Observing System, prepared by the Ocean Observing System Development Panel
(OOSDP, 1995). The OOSDP was set up by the Committee for Climate Change in
the Ocean (CCCO) and the Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate
Research Programme (JSC). The OOSDP Report emphasises the physical variables required to detect or predict climate change, but many of the same observations would provide benefits in the shorter term also.
During the mid-1990s in the period after the 1992 Rio Convention, plans for
GOOS continued to evolve, while the Conventions and Treaties initiated at Rio
strengthened the demand for ocean observations at the globallevel. GOOS itself
was established by agreements between UN Agencies in late 1993. The Framework Climate Convention, the Convention on Biodiversity, and the Convention on
Sustainable Development all require greatly increased knowledge of ocean processes, and specific understanding of the present state of the ocean and the trends
of change through time. These issues were analysed in a meeting organised by
OECD in spring 1998 (OECD, 1998).
Although the most technically feasible components of GOOS are the physical
observations and predictions, the biological requirements are both scientifically
important and politically essential. Biological processes, particularly phytoplankton growth, strongly influence the carbon cyele and the penetration of light and
heat into the upper layers of the ocean. Biological productivity, water quality, and
public health issues are of vital public interest in the coastal zone. International
global science programmes such as JGOFS and GLOBEC (www.pml.ac.uk/
globec) provide some of the basic understanding needed in ecosystem modelling.
The potential cost of GOOS, or a regional component of GOOS, is a major obstaele to the development and implementation of GOOS, and the political and institutional commitment to investing in GOOS only occurs when it can be demonstrated
in a thoroughly sound analysis that the economic and social benefits from the use
of the data will exceed the costs by an acceptable multiple, using strict principles of
estimation, accounting, and discounting to net present value. Such calculations
must not be based on an idealised estimate of the way in which the data from